If I was in Trumps position I would completely cut of trade with China RE N.Korea

originally posted by: CharlesT

originally posted by: fusiondoe

It seems to me that as the situation stands. China will defend N.K if America attacks first.

1: Clearly this is all to do with China's fear of US and S.K troops on their border. Are China really that stupid to believe that the USA are going to invade them or something? If not then can somebody please explain why China are so against the USA attacking first?

2: China are a part of this world and are in just as much danger from N.K as everybody else if Rocket man decides to push that button... So why are they so reluctant to sanction as hard as possible and/or even go into N.K and deal with Kim themselves.

Again, forgive me if I come across as ignorant. I just don't understand why China are not encouraging the USA to go in and deal with Kim?

3: Personally if I was Trump I would give China a very clear choice. Stop trading with your friend or we will stop trading with you, simple as that...But then that is just me.

I would appreciate if people could be kind in their responses. Do not insult me, educate me please...

1: China is not afraid the US will attack them but do fear that an open and free capitalist nation and ideology will infiltrate their border.
2: China wants NK to have a nuclear deterent. NK is a buffer state between the US and China.
3: Walk into any WallMart and look at where most of the items come from. China produces the vast majority of what we buy. If trade with China is suspended, US shelves would be bare within days or a few weeks at the most.

I would agree with these points, although I would clarify the last point a bit, at least in my humble opinion. Any sort of trade war with China would certainly affect the U.S. Here in the States we are addicted to cheap Chinese goods. So as mentioned by another poster, it would hurt but we would get used to it. But China would feel some pain as well. If I'm not mistaken, the States are the number one consumer of the cheap Chinese goods flooding the world markets. So China would certainly feel at least some crunch if their largest overseas consumer stopped buying. Just saying it goes both ways. Who gets hurt worse in that exchange? I don't know. Longer term though I think it benefits the U.S. as more domestic products would be manufactured and sold to fill the gap.

a reply to: Sagacity

Exactly...

But there is one more thing to consider; If we declare China as a non-trading partner, China could in turn start selling off her stocks and bonds at a spurious rate, which could collapse our economy. I believe that China holds trillions of dollars in US T-bonds as well as hundreds of billions of dollars worth of properties, corporations and the like. Mess with China in the wrong way, and the war they wage may be one of dollars, not ammunition.

a reply to: fusiondoe

Here's a thread that went into this scenario and its possible implications:
China at risk of loosing its trade with U.S

And here are some of my thoughts on this situation (quoted from one of my posts in that thread):

China is our single largest import partner, with the US buying almost twice as much from China than from our #2 import partner Canada. The European Union is our #2 import partner if looked at it as a single seller, and we still buy more goods from China than from the entire EU. China is also the 3rd largest purchaser of US goods (4th when counting the entire EU as a single buyer), meaning a halt in trade would instantly hurt American businesses that export products.

We're talking more than $100 billion a year in exports and almost half a trillion dollars in imports per year (HERE). Do you really think the multinationals, hedge funds, & institutional investors that are behind these companies (like Goldman Sachs, Berkshire Hathaway, and Blackstone) will risk losing this kind of money over Trump's whims?

a reply to: fusiondoe

The US could not survive without trade from China.

a reply to: fusiondoe

China are being really good about this. They have cut off most of their trade with North Korea. They are helping the U.S bring Kim to book.

They do not want him either. Who needs an asshole like that threatening everybody with nuclear bombs. It's the last thing China wants.

It is not possible to pull out of China. The whole world is investing there. It is the biggest investment in the world. We would starve millions and millions of people if we pulled out just like that and we would sink our own economies at the same time.

Trump has played it well with China. They seem to be doing quit well as a team on this so far.

Kim has brought this on himself. He has behaved like a little savage, killing even his friends and family members. He had both his uncle and his bro murdered. He will fall on his own sword.

The U.S has heavily invested in China and China has invested as heavily in the U.S. You are both the biggest trading partners on the planet now. Tony Montana, the world is yours.

hate to break it to you but if the U.S. entered a trade war with China they would lose.

Simply by not using dollars to buy oil (which they've already begun to do) they can undermine the dollar's stature as a worldwide reserve currency, on which the U.S. economy is dependant. China also holds over $1 trillion in U.S. treasuries, which provides an economic leverage not to be trifled with.

originally posted by: njord
hate to break it to you but if the U.S. entered a trade war with China they would lose.

Simply by not using dollars to buy oil (which they've already begun to do) they can undermine the dollar's stature as a worldwide reserve currency, on which the U.S. economy is dependant. China also holds over $1 trillion in U.S. treasuries, which provides an economic leverage not to be trifled with.

Not to mention they hold 3.5 trillion in gold bullion for collateral from the US received in 2005 for US debts they currently hold. It would be catastrophic for the US as its essentially a 700 billion trade deal annually. Sure it might put China in a short term pinch, but they'd fetter out of it ok and leave us holding our hats.

Wars are started this way

a reply to: Edumakated

China has more to lose?

What a dumb comment.

One about 50 percent of the population would probably become welfare people un able to buy any products from, target, wall mart etc...

Two..you would be forcing Americans to not trade with china.

Three, inflation and the cpi....unless you want socialism America can not afford products made with American wages. We would also lose raw material supply lines.

Those of you who say stuff like this have zero understanding of economics.

It sounds cool to be tough though.

originally posted by: kelbtalfenek
a reply to: Sagacity

Exactly...

But there is one more thing to consider; If we declare China as a non-trading partner, China could in turn start selling off her stocks and bonds at a spurious rate, which could collapse our economy. I believe that China holds trillions of dollars in US T-bonds as well as hundreds of billions of dollars worth of properties, corporations and the like. Mess with China in the wrong way, and the war they wage may be one of dollars, not ammunition.

That is a good point, thanks.

originally posted by: FyreByrd
a reply to: fusiondoe

The US could not survive without trade from China.

Just theoretically speaking, as I seriously doubt either the U.S. or China want any kind of trade war, even over North Korea. Also, relations with China aren't that bad currently, and it seems that China is taking a harder line on NK currently. I still believe they look the other way with some things, but overall better.

I do think a trade war would hurt the U.S particularly hard initially if it were to ever actually occur with any seriousness.
I think I mentioned earlier something we all know. We do love our cheap prices on junk we don't really need. We're ridiculous consumers. After the first crunch though, a good bit of those same goods would be sourced from other countries. Might not be as cheap, but the world markets would start to respond and other countries would fill a good bit of the need. Money talks, and others will be more than happy to take the cash, expanding their production and growing their industry. Of course that takes time.

Even longer term, I think more of these products would be made in America and benefit our economy, which would be a good thing imho. Prices might be (ok would be) higher, but it would stimulate the economy some at least.

People would be split between being outraged at our own government, and the Chinese. That you can count on. I think there would be enough of the latter that a large percentage of the population would surge toward "made in America" products etc.

Of course none of this is as important as what I was reminded of in this thread. The Chinese own a lot of U.S. debt. That's more of a threat than the above I think.

As this thread is discussing trade and sanctions, I thought it a fitting place to put this link to an article from the South China Morning Post that appeared today. It discusses how the NK government, and regular NK citizens are getting around the current sanctions and restrictions. (saves having another NK thread as well)

Sanctioned items – including chemicals, machine parts, and luxury goods – are in turn smuggled from China to North Korea. Smugglers report that they’ve experienced no downturn in business during sanctions enforcement or smuggling crackdowns.

Link to full article

I seriously doubt a trade war with China is the answer to the Nk problem.We want the Chinese on our side in this.Antagonizing them would not help in the least.

a reply to: fusiondoe

Nice idea. Main problem .... the west is dependent on China for so much. Speaking as someone who works in the Pharma (Contract Research/manufacture not BIG Pharma (or Medium or small)).... many of my raw materials are from China.

Electronics? Something probably came from China.

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The west saw a cheap answer, and took it.

So to cut trade with them? Well you could do that, as long as you are willing to pay the price (sorry bad pun).

a reply to: fusiondoe

Given that China have been actually quite accommodating and helpful, with regard to NK just lately (especially when compared to their previous positions on the behaviour of NK), this would be a foolish time to cut all trade with China. Furthermore, cutting trade from China would destroy basically every manufacturing trade in the United States, since all major plant machinery, all major aircraft, shipping, everything with a high dollar value to it, including many things used in critical infrastructure, contain parts which are built by Chinese firms. Even JDAM missiles and other critical wargear, contains Chinese parts.

Cutting oneself off from replenishment of these parts would be tantamount to waving a white flag.

China has a role to play on this, and it's not the role of an antagonist (of either party). This would lead to nothing. I do believe nobody really wants a full-fledged war. That being said, there's a plot to kill Little Rocket Man now.