Something's just not right-Disturbance in the Force

a reply to: TerryMcGuire

www.huffingtonpost.com...

Anticipation of crises and the socialization of risk

Not many people know, but the crash of 2007-2008 was anticipated by many recession prediction models, because there were signs in the financial markets that something troubling was going on. The biggest problem in the current situation is that central banks have hidden several market signals with unconventional monetary policies. QE’s of world major central banks have pushed the risks of several asset classes to far ends of the probability distributions. What this means is that if the actual price of an asset does not meet its market-based value, the true level of risk is not properly priced in. Socialization of risks of private entities with monetary or fiscal measures hides the risks behind politically motivated decision. This is probably the biggest risk threating the world economy, that is, the mispricing of risk by unknown magnitude.

So, where are we heading? Unfortunately, all we know with a fair certainty is that we are facing some form of a downturn. It may be a mild one, but if any of the above listed risks would to materialize, the downturn would have the potential to turn into a systemic crash under current conditions. What this means is that we currently face a highly uncertain future with fairly decent growth prospects and that we can do very little to diminish the uncertainty, but to hope for the best.

a reply to: the2ofusr1

What? You're going to trust a wanker, I mean banker, to tell you a fair price for a vowel, or are you going to give me fake bankers money for my precious vowels?

a reply to: TheConstruKctionofLight

Thanks for the read Construk. I like the very end where they sum up our situation

that we can do very little to diminish the uncertainty, but to hope for the best.

So from this all we can hope for is a lick and a promise cuz basically we are flying blind.

a reply to: TerryMcGuire

You're welcome and I agree with your conclusion

scary...
wiki

An automated trading system (ATS) is a computer program that creates orders and automatically submits them to a market center or exchange.

Then there is

en.wikipedia.org...
High-frequency trading

High-frequency trading (HFT) is a type of algorithmic trading characterized by high speeds, high turnover rates, and high order-to-trade ratios that leverages high-frequency financial data and electronic trading tools.[1] While there is no single definition of HFT, among its key attributes are highly sophisticated algorithms, co-location, and very short-term investment horizons.[2] HFT can be viewed as a primary form of algorithmic trading in finance.[3][4][5][6][7] Specifically, it is the use of sophisticated technological tools and computer algorithms to rapidly trade securities.[8][9][10] HFT uses proprietary trading strategies carried out by computers to movein and out of positions in seconds or fractions of a second.

So if your investment trader doesnt have the same tech as other traders...you're gettingt screwed

a reply to: TonyS

Look how screwed up the world is...and now N.K. crap too. Im getting my $$ liquidified...and soon Ill be cashing in my 401 in my stocks and real estate investments myself.

You should look around. Its been coming and with you on the front-lines so to speak...seems you maybe are late to the party? People are afraid...jobs and futures are not secure for a new car or house note or medical insurance etc...maybe for some...but folks are worried....

Best....MS

Warren Buffet is also currently holding a lot of cash.

Why is this happening?

The banking system is broken. And this leaves people only a few places to "safely" put their money. Mainly just the stock market, real estate and (to a greatly lesser degree) bonds.

The stock market is massively over-valued. The main thing holding it up is there's almost no other place to put your money.

Real estate is quite volatile. And the few areas that pose good places for growth are tough to get into.

Bonds give you basically no return.

For these reasons, some investors become paralyzed, holding larger cash reserves than they should.

You also see the other side of that coin. People venturing into higher risk investments. But (right now) that phenomena is less of a concern. Because (given low growth) that's actually helping our economy ... a bit.

Basically, this stagnant phase will continue until a true new growth sector appears in the economy. Be that alternate fuel sources, new technologies, or (hopefully not) war.

Ok, I'll say it...

It's political and lack of confidence in Trump, the GOP and their lack of leadership even though they have the ball in their court.

I've bailed on the stock mkt and put all my assets in hard tangibles.

The bubble is just about to pop....believe me. Of course the preferred economic impetus in the US is WAR, it's an established pattern...are you ready?

Locked and Loaded? Fire and Fury, like the world has never seen... That might put a disturbance in the force....! I know you can feel is too...Soon the MSM will be all decked out in red, white and blue and the fear needle will be at 11.

a reply to: TonyS

Saving ones money has little risk to it. For me your number 2 and 3 make sense also. I do feel we are looking at a number of bubbles and they have been discussed in many threads here. Student loans, housing, banking an over priced market, over 20 trillion in debt as a nation. If one of these bubbles pop we could get a nasty chain reaction.

a reply to: TonyS

tony have you considered the enormous growth of the crypto-currency markets? there have been many wall street bigwigs this year announcing on the likes of Bloomberg their own new investments into cryptocoins, could be those who listen to them are following suit.
the top 5 (and there are hundreds) cryptocurrencies alone have a current total market capitalization of $102,940,191,962. thats over 100 billion usd.
surely this previously nonexistent market holding over 100billion usd in it now would have some significant effect on all other markets right?

also its only going to grow, and rapidly at that.
bitinfocharts.com...
fortune.com...
www.theguardian.com...
seekingalpha.com...
techcrunch.com...

originally posted by: kurthall
a reply to: TonyS



Yeah, something is going to happen, only unlike you I think it just may be NKorea. I live on the West Coast, so its pretty scary to think about.

You're not going to get nuked.

a reply to: olaru12

You will say it? Do you think Trump wanted to say it? His body language suggests otherwise.

They've got him by the bollocks and he is left with no choice. All that Russia crap you were pushing for all that time was just to grind him down. He's falling in line with the PNAC which I doubt you are even aware of because of all the lefty crap I've seen you post.

Correct me if I'm wrong...