Brexit - 6 months on...

originally posted by: crayzeed

The UK at the moment has no big businesses (please don't mention BAE as it's uniquely for the British military ) all the big businesses are foreign owned, we are an island of service industries but the kill comes when you understand that we are used to service Europe.

Sure many companies in the UK are not owned by Brits themselves. At the same time we have a very advanced industrial economy with some of the worlds top manufacturers based here. We are doing relatively well compared to many G20 nations and here lies our big problem post Brexit. We are so inter connected with Europe that there is no national economy these days, everything we do relies on our relationship with the EU states and reworking this may be a real impossibility if things go sour between the EU and UK. You look at our plants and the vast majority of components come from the EU. The EU is our neighbour, right next door, if you want components in industry you bet they are not made here but come in from the continent, a vast amount of them from Germany. Whether the jingoisitic Brexiters like it or not we are a single market right now and have been for decades and getting out of that well lets see how things roll out beacause UK couldn't produce most of these componets straight away or even in years due to reliance on the EU suppliers and people with the right skills that don't exist here.........................

a reply to: crayzeed



I optimistically raise my glass half full to your glass half empty to the future!!

Its time for Brits to pull up their 'big boy' pants and stop winging

a reply to: eletheia

I hear those big boy pants are half price in Primark right now.

Better hope they are waterproof pants because without a working Brexit plan, which one has to wonder where the hell it is, we are sure going to need them.

Just a thought.

originally posted by: crayzeed
a reply to: eletheia
Why would you leave a club and beg for benefits? Well we've left the EU club and Ms May IS going to beg for benefits.
We want nothing off the EU? Really wake up and smell the roses.
We will negotiate for our benefit? Negotiation means you have to have something to negotiate with and we will not be in the club so they can just say "take a hike".
As for British optimism, we haven't got any, we are always left to the vagaries of our government. And the same answer for entrepreneurship when our government sells us down the river to the highest bidder and f*** the British workforce and businesses.
The UK at the moment has no big businesses (please don't mention BAE as it's uniquely for the British military ) all the big businesses are foreign owned, we are an island of service industries but the kill comes when you understand that we are used to service Europe.

The allegory doesn't work.
The tennis club wouldn't gain any benefits by allowing you access without continued membership.

The EU though, well, their manufacturers still want to sell us billions of pounds worth of cars, wine, food and textiles.

If the EU insisted upon tariffs for goods we sold them, they would have to be applied to goods they want to sell us. This would mean that The BMW 5 series your boss was going to get you next year would cost more than an equivalent American or, indeed British car. Not everyone would switch to GM or Jag, but quite a few would and that would, in turn, harm the German workers who would inevitably see layoffs or a lowering of working conditions.

Keep trade tariff free however and we continue to buy the cars and other stuff at the same rate and everyone wins. We get to sort out our own destiny apart from the EU and the Germans get to run their club without us whining about every little thing they want to do.

a reply to: SprocketUK
Yeah it's true on finished goods like BMW etc that need the UK as a market and we do have bargaining chips there, but at this very point in time as the OP stated what are the effects, well it's all to do with the Pound. Brexit - 6 months on....................... If you are exporting stuff to the States etc yes things are good but that is only if you are the finished goods end. Most UK manufacturers are not at the finished goods exporting end, most are either making for the domestic market/export to Europe while the vast majority are stuck in the middle being part of the supply chain. They do not see any benefit from better exchange rates for foreign sales like say JCB will, the hundreds of component makers for JCB will see no benefit there, indeed they will have been hammered by the extra costs of bringing in materials from the EU states to make their components. The vast vast vast majority of raw materials fo our plants come not from China, USA, Japan, etc they come from the EU most of it from German companies and the collapse of Sterling means higher costs, those prices have squeezed our component makers to the point of going bust. If you want a conspiracy then a massive amount of our small component makers will go in the next year or two to be replaced by more component makers from the EU, it is bound to happen and the only manufacturing based here will be the final assembly of those goods that need it Bentley etc. Every part will come from Sauerkrautland bar a few advanced robots tigging them together to make a 'British' product, check out factory gate prices and the massive rise in inflation happening right now in industry.

originally posted by: andy06shake
a reply to: eletheia

I hear those big boy pants are half price in Primark right now.

Better hope they are waterproof pants because without a working Brexit plan, which one has to wonder where the hell it is, we are sure going to need them.

Just a thought.

I hope that the pants are made in the UK. The sheer uncertainty that continues to assail the uk will lead to further sterling losses which will lead to dearer foreign imports. Look at what will happen when article 17 is triggered.

a reply to: ufoorbhunter

Good points. Though slightly tangental to the point about it not being in the interests of EU members to try and impose tarriffs.

The real danger in my view is in dragging the whole process out so that we can't actually get to the point where we see how the markets wI'll work things out once we are out.

a reply to: Tiger5

Well there are indeed sweatshops that produce such articles dotted throughout our major towns and city's.

I thought it was Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty which was associated with the Brexit process?

originally posted by: SprocketUK



The real danger in my view is in dragging the whole process out so that we can't actually get to the point where we see how the markets wI'll work things out once we are out.

Yes totally agree Sprocket, "dragging the whole process out" looks to be the big danger now, many in the middle supply chain could be finished by the new costs involved with buying the materials from the Eurozone. Being fair there will be winners in that segment who do more trade with increased exports by the final manufacturer, but it's tough right now if you are ordering stuff from Germany and an 8% price increase is going into effect at midnight tonight when some middle man with the rights makes you pay in Sterling. There is no way to pass the 8% cost on. We really do need the whole Brexit sorting out extremely quickly to prevent parts of the supply chain collapsing and the work going abroad, ironically to the Eurozone.

A potted economic history of *Great Britain* for all the negative, derisive, nay

sayers out there and how GB managed for centuries before the event of the EU.

Britain has always been one of the most prosperous regions in Europe.

Between 1600 and 1700 Britain led the industrial revolution and dominated the

world economy.

It invented the railway system, and exported it to the world, building much of the

equipment which was used by other nations. The industrial revolution inventions

by the British.

# Flying shuttle by John Kay

# Spinning Jenny by James Hargreaves

# Water frame by Richard Arkwright

# Spinning mule by Samuel Crompton

# Steam engine by Thomas Newcomen

# Powerful steam engine James Watt

Britain had a superior financial system based in London and was leader in

domestic and international banking, entrepreneurship and trade.


After 1840 Britain abandoned mercantilism and committed its economy to

'free trade'with free barriers or tariffs, this opened the market to unfettered

competition. 1850 to 1870 Britain was described as *the workshop of the world*

Britain was also supplying half the needs in manufactured goods to Germany,

France, Belgium and the U.S. In 1870 Britain's output per head was 2nd

highest in the world after Australia.

By 1950 British output per head was still 30% ahead of the six founder members of

the EEC.


1880 to 1913 the golden era of international finance and London strengthened

its position as the worlds financial capital.

1914 to 1918 WAR -

1939 to 1945 .... Adolf Hitler wanted to gain more land and power and for Germany

to rule Europe. - WAR.

(see a likeness to the EU anyone?


The 15 years after that war saw some of the most rapid growth Britain has ever

experienced


1973 Britain joins the European Economic Community ..... How did we ever get

into the European Union.... I didn't vote IN did anyone?? underhanded stealth??


en.wikipedia.org...



How can anyone think we cannot go it alone


Now to bring you bang up to date. I came across this today......

FTSE 100 share index SOARS TO AN ALL TIME HIGH.
The FTSE 100 share index surged to an all time high yesterday,
recording its best year since 2013, thanks to a boost from the
pound.It closed up 22.57 points to 7,142.83. The late surge saw
the premier share index record a fresh closing high for the third
day running.
It came as London emerged as the best performer of the major
European stock markets this year, finishing 2016 more than 14%
higher. The market had mounted a recovery after sterling slumped
following the Brexit vote and has been a boon for London listed
multinational companies.

originally posted by: eletheia

A potted economic history of *Great Britain* for all the negative, derisive, nay

sayers out there and how GB managed for centuries before the event of the EU.

Britain has always been one of the most prosperous regions in Europe.

Between 1600 and 1700 Britain led the industrial revolution and dominated the

world economy.

It invented the railway system, and exported it to the world, building much of the

equipment which was used by other nations. The industrial revolution inventions

by the British.

# Flying shuttle by John Kay

# Spinning Jenny by James Hargreaves

# Water frame by Richard Arkwright

# Spinning mule by Samuel Crompton

# Steam engine by Thomas Newcomen

# Powerful steam engine James Watt

Britain had a superior financial system based in London and was leader in

domestic and international banking, entrepreneurship and trade.


After 1840 Britain abandoned mercantilism and committed its economy to

'free trade'with free barriers or tariffs, this opened the market to unfettered

competition. 1850 to 1870 Britain was described as *the workshop of the world*

Britain was also supplying half the needs in manufactured goods to Germany,

France, Belgium and the U.S. In 1870 Britain's output per head was 2nd

highest in the world after Australia.

By 1950 British output per head was still 30% ahead of the six founder members of

the EEC.


1880 to 1913 the golden era of international finance and London strengthened

its position as the worlds financial capital.

1914 to 1918 WAR -

1939 to 1945 .... Adolf Hitler wanted to gain more land and power and for Germany

to rule Europe.

- WAR.

(see a likeness to the EU anyone?


The 15 years after that war saw some of the most rapid growth Britain has ever

experienced


1973 Britain joins the European Economic Community ..... How did we ever get

into the European Union.... I didn't vote IN did anyone?? underhanded stealth??


en.wikipedia.org...



How can anyone think we cannot go it alone

Now to bring you bang up to date. I came across this today......

FTSE 100 share index SOARS TO AN ALL TIME HIGH.
The FTSE 100 share index surged to an all time high yesterday,
recording its best year since 2013, thanks to a boost from the
pound.It closed up 22.57 points to 7,142.83. The late surge saw
the premier share index record a fresh closing high for the third
day running.
It came as London emerged as the best performer of the major
European stock markets this year, finishing 2016 more than 14%
higher. The market had mounted a recovery after sterling slumped
following the Brexit vote and has been a boon for London listed
multinational companies.

Because there's no Brexit plan - this was leaked a few months back by Whitehall

Since the industrial revoluton child slavery, workers rights and the British Empire (where we pillaged an estimated £1 trillion in todays numbers are thankfully illegal.

Globalisation and rising standards in developing nations have meant for greater competition - a good thing.

The UK has no industry, we're relaint on other nations for food, fuel, basic neccesities - this happened long before the EU was a pipe dream

The banks are already moving to Paris after Brexit and the government are robbing from the poor to give tax breaks for the rich.

The idea the UK can 'go it alone' is abbout 150 years out of date and has no basis in modern reality unless people want to work 18 hour shifts for £1.75 an hour while having all human rights removed.

Indeed there are many faults with globalisation and the EU but the government/some public approach seems to be 'la la la, I' not listening' or still under the impression we're self reliant/a super power when there's hardly any STEM teachers, let alone industries left folowing the Thatcher years.

It's like you never read what you quoted there.

That or you work for the BBC .

How do countries like Singapore, Canada, Australia etc manage to survive without being in the EU if life is so bleak beyond the borders of that particular undemocratic institution?

Time to take the red pill fella and realise that we can trade on equal terms with the whole world for the first time in 43 years.

It won't all be roses, but it's not roses now for most people anyway.

Buck up and show some backbone like the majority of us Brits who are looking forwards with optimism, not fear.

originally posted by: bastion
let alone industries left folowing the Thatcher years.

We are one of the most advanced industrial economies on Planet Earth. We have an industrial base that most countries dream of. Guess who helped us become this modern industrial gem? Thatcher She turned a state that was being destroyed by the unions and labour into one of the great success stories of the 80's and we live in a better world today thanks to her. Nobody is taking our money any longer to support miners and steel workers and BL that were just non competitive. She also forged a partnership with Japanese industry that injected life into a post colonial mismanaged state that really sprung into life. Old industries were finished to be replaced by tholse that made a profit. God bless that woman

originally posted by: bastion
Because there's no Brexit plan - this was leaked a few months back by Whitehall

Of course there was no Brexit plan .....David Cameron et al never in a million years

believed it would happen! shows how out of touch with the people they were.

Since the industrial revoluton child slavery, workers rights and the British Empire (where we pillaged an estimated £1 trillion in todays numbers are thankfully illegal.

Child slavery along with many things such as apartheid, women's rights, pensions

benefits, etc. have evolved as humanity progressed and had absolutely zilch to

do with Europe. I also think you need to brush up on your history and the British

Empire. I can recommend a good book to you ..... "The Making of India" by Kartar

Lalvani. The Indian continent wouldn't be what it is now without the British.

The story of The Making of India begins in the seventeenth century, when a small sea-faring island, one tenth the size of the Indian subcontinent, despatched sailing ships over 11,000 miles on a five-month trading journey in search of new opportunities. In the end they helped build a new nation. The sheer audacity and scale of such an endeavour, the courage and enterprise, have no parallel in world history. This book is the first to assess in a single volume almost all aspects of Britain s remarkable contribution in providing India with its lasting institutional and physical infrastructure, which continues to underpin the world s largest democracy in the twenty-first century.

The UK has no industry, we're relaint on other nations for food, fuel, basic neccesities - this happened long before the EU was a pipe dream

British farmers have been paid by the EU not to grow certain foods, now they

will be able to feed the nation, less need to import.

The country is not paralysed nothing to stop them re starting industries, perhaps we

need to see what Trump is doing with the US car industries??

The banks are already moving to Paris after Brexit and the government are robbing from the poor to give tax breaks for the rich.

www.quora.com...

READ IT AND WEEP!

The idea the UK can 'go it alone' is abbout 150 years out of date and has no basis in modern reality unless people want to work 18 hour shifts for £1.75 an hour while having all human rights removed.

Typical negativity for a remoaner!

Indeed there are many faults with globalisation and the EU but the government/some public approach seems to be 'la la la, I' not listening' or still under the impression we're self reliant/a super power when there's hardly any STEM teachers, let alone industries left folowing the Thatcher years.

If the UK were ^^^this failing nation^^^ Why is the EU so desperate to

hang on to the this failing nation which just happens to be the 2nd largest

contributor to the EU budget and London is the largest financial center in the

world

originally posted by: ufoorbhunter

originally posted by: bastion
let alone industries left folowing the Thatcher years.

We are one of the most advanced industrial economies on Planet Earth. We have an industrial base that most countries dream of. Guess who helped us become this modern industrial gem? Thatcher

She turned a state that was being destroyed by the unions and labour into one of the great success stories of the 80's and we live in a better world today thanks to her. Nobody is taking our money any longer to support miners and steel workers and BL that were just non competitive. She also forged a partnership with Japanese industry that injected life into a post colonial mismanaged state that really sprung into life. Old industries were finished to be replaced by tholse that made a profit. God bless that woman

I think we both live in alternate universes. Growing up under her/major years it was lucky if people had a parent in employment, let alone enough food and 35- 45 kids per class due to her destrpying industry and the unions.

Thatcher destroyed the unions and transfered all the wealth to petrodollar and stock markets as she had no understanding f game theory - all the industries tehn moved abroad which is why our critical infrastructure (oil, electriciy, food) is all owned by overseas companies as training for highly skilled jobs died when she attacked the unions.

Personally I'd rather have fair pay, workers rights, training, be able to survive and have self reliance than transfer all that money to the handful of people in the Mayfair Set sothey can become billionaires by closing factoriesvia game theory. There's good reason everyone around here celebrated her death.

originally posted by: bastion
I think we both live in alternate universes.

Hmmm....

I'm beginning to wonder which planet you are living on?

Growing up under her/major years it was lucky if people had a parent in employment.

Most couples, with children I knew were fully employed, and had

never been so well off.....

let alone enough food and 35- 45 kids per class due to her destrpying industry and the unions.

Enough food??? There were no food banks then!!

School classes in my time were slightly under 40 pupils, the same for

my children, and about the same for my grandchildren!

Thatcher destroyed the unions

Its never a good thing for the unions to be bigger/stronger than any

government.

and transfered all the wealth to petrodollar and stock markets as she had no understanding f game theory - all the industries tehn moved abroad which is why our critical infrastructure (oil, electriciy, food) is all owned by overseas companies as training for highly skilled jobs died when she attacked the unions.

She was PM .... she made discisions and was in a position to solicit the best

educated advice available. So in theory she didn't need to understand.

Personally I'd rather have fair pay, workers rights, training

You must be on another planet .... because everyone I know has had

all those.

be able to survive and have self reliance

Surely thats down to the individual? or do you expect the government to

be your nurse maid too?

There's good reason everyone around here celebrated her death.

Theres never a good reason for that kind of disrespect

a reply to: eletheia


Actually that old bitch brought in tough Public spending cuts and a recession ensued for working people.


here is a link.
www.bbc.co.uk...

As for the unions well they are a member's organisation for working people. All that working people have is the right to withhold labor as a democratic principle. The unions were never more powerful than the bosses.

originally posted by: Tiger5
Actually that old bitch brought in tough Public spending cuts and a recession ensued for working people.

Actually you could say that about every household who runs a budget and

wants to stay debt free.


Everyone individually goes through tough times too and have to make cuts

and tighten their belts .... Its how one manages it, that counts.


I've done it myself, kept the family debt free and afloat. Tough love

when things are tight ......


Countries have to balance their books too. And in that respect she did a

very good job. If I remember rightly it was she who kept us from joining

the common European Monetary System....another good job done.


Edit to add: Just found this.

www.telegraph.co.uk...

originally posted by: babybunnies

originally posted by: fusiondoe
according to the recent reports I have read, the economy has grown slightly...

That's a difference from the predictions of the remainers and fear mongerers. I was under the impression we were going to become like Ethiopia and be drinking from the rivers and scavenging for food

Remainers and fearmongers were all predicting a massive crash in the UK economy, which hasn't happened. The only thing that has happened is that the Pound Sterling has lost some value, which actually helps the UK in the long run, especially in regards to international trade. If you want to see how a low value currency helps the economy, you only have to look at CHINA. GDP is up in the first quarter measured since the vote, and is actually UP MORE than other industrialized nations in the Western World, and in the EU.

I want there to be a law passed that says that any company who's CEO said that they would pull out of Britain if BREXIT passes, should not reap any of the benefits of BREXIT, and should be forced to submit a time table of when they are leaving, to be completed no later than the pull out date, which I suspect will be 2019. If they're not gone by the pull out date, they should lose their license to do business in the UK. Quite frankly, if you don't support the future of the UK as the forefront of your company's values, then you should leave.

When those companies see how well Britain will be doing 5 years after BREXIT is official, they'll be clamouring to come back.

I'm looking at you, Richard Branson.

Well take a long hard look a China. It's economy is still predicated on a totalitarian regime. I love the Chinese culture but it is was destroyed by Mao. China is heavily polluted. the people are very poor and many politicians are corrupt. There is no free press.

Is this what you want for the UK.


Branson has a democratic right to say whatever he likes but for centuries Britain has had free enterprise so can do what they like within the law.

The pound should take another beating in March when the uncertainty becomes even more obvious. Uncertainty adversely affects currency strength.


Did you know the UK imports 40% of its food?

We already have people clamouring fro free food. NHS is in Crisis we cannot take much more pressure.

originally posted by: Tiger5

NHS is in Crisis we cannot take much more pressure

One of the reasons being growth of population outstripping hospitals

so immigration control will help with that.

We already have people clamouring fro free food. Did you know the UK imports 40% of its food?

A few points from the link below which shows we are NOT EU dependent

OUR ISSUE WITH THE EU
1. We want to see an increase in Food Production. The CAP makes this more difficult.

Fundamental to the survival of the United Kingdom’s rural economy is an increase in food production, and this is hindered by our membership of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP).

It is, understandably, a difficult enterprise to agree on regulations that apply to 28 member states. As a result of this, UK farmers are often forced to compromise.

3. The popular 'remain' argument that UK farmers will lose EU trade does not stand up to scrutiny.

The UK's trade in agriculture (and other industries) is hugely important to the European Union. For example, the UK imports 2.5 times as much beef from the EU as we export to them so it is in their best interests to secure a free trade deal with the UK. Without this they will be jeopardising their own export markets.

George Eustice, Minister of State for Farming said: 'Last year (2015), we exported £7.5bn worth of food to the EU but we imported food worth £18bn. We have an annual trade deficit with the EU in food alone of £10bn so they need a free trade deal as much, or perhaps even more than we do.'

More details from the link.>>>>
www.farmersforbritain.co.uk...