who thinks Saudia Arabia and neighboring counties will actually invade Syria ?

originally posted by: MrSpad

originally posted by: HUMBLEONE
Drudge reports this morning that Russia is massing troops on the Turkish border. Putin is a chess player.

That would be pointless. The Russian and Turkish active forces are almost the same size. You generally need 4/6 to 1 advantage to go on the offensive. With hostile states like Ukraine and Georgia on its borders, along with securing the East (China) and the West (NATO) Russia does not have the ground forces to do anything to the Turks. And the Turks are in the same boat.

You may want to check your source on that military size / strength...it appears to be off by several hundred thousand Russians (Turkey:510,600. Russia: 845,000...wikipedia). If we look at total availability then Russia has just over 3X the man power of Turkey.

I don`t think they have the guts to do it. No muslim country has engaged in a large scale military operation since, well since they got their asses handed to them by Israel back in 1967.

saudi arabia does not border syria, they would have to go through jordan or iraq first.
neither of which actually adhere to their wahhabi sect of islam.
the saudi army is bogged down at war with yemen at the moment.
making the mass public learn they are behind daesh would kill all support.

Reading this (though by no means the most authoratative or unbiased source necessarily,) suggests to me that what is most likely is a "ceasefire" in which certain pockets of conflict continue, predicated upon both sides choosing who they label terrorists and who they do not.

If that means at least some parts of Syria become more hospitable and peaceful for the average citizens caught in the midst of all this... I guess that's better than nothing. (Speaking as someone who doesn't have a side and just wants it to stop.)

www.reuters.com...

Peace

a reply to: stinkelbaum
Running sorties through it's airspace, or conducting ground/ artillery operations without the permission of the Syrian govt constitutes an act of war/ legal invasion.
If we are talking massive land/air campaign i wouldn't hold my breath.
Saudi Arabia invading Syria?
I can't think of one regional state that hasn't

IF in the advent Saudi Arabia invades Syria, it will turn into a Shia vs Sunni war, and I wouldn't be surprised if they end up supporting ISIS against everyone. Let's pray that does not happen

Nah, Saudi Arabia already has a losing war to deal with in Yemen. My guess is the same as it was before. Nobody is going to send troops to syria. Especially not France, which already is in its own quagmire in Libya. As a matter of fact France will not get out of their own monkey trap any time soon. The struggle between the french foreign legion and the terrorists in Libya will bring France to a breakdown, martial law and possibly a civil war.

a reply to: MrSpad

An attack on Saudi Arabia would bring in not only the US but, the entire Arab league as well and really anger China to whom the Kingdom is their largest oil provider. That would simply not be an option for the Russians.

What I do see happening is someone, probably the U.S. being a huge distraction for what WILL be an invasion of Syria and then Israel when Syria completely falls. My and the other Bibles out there all point it out pretty clearly that it will happen.

Turkey wants their Ottoman empire back as they have had three times previously in history and Erdogan will not be stopped until some nation like Russia or Israel nukes the hell out of him. Israel will and that is what brings the last war of Armageddon against Israel, or do you not read the Bible?

Thanks for all the good opinions everyone . This issue has been on my mind for a bit, but my knowledge on the topic is limited . I'll leave it to ATS'ers any day to get closer to the truth then the mainstream media

I guess none of us have a crystal ball and nobody knows exactly what will go down . Very strong points that the Saudis are in conflict with Yemen and risk getting attacked from both ends if they are brazen enough to invade Syria ( in which would be a clear declaration of war ).

I guess for me the real wildcard that scares me if all Arab nations stop their internal conflicts ( Sunni, v.s Shia ) and come to a resolution to unleash a massive scale invasion with a common goal . (" the enemy of the enemy is my friend kind of idea"
Assad does not seem to be very well received globally and there are many who clearly want him gone . I guess the key is , are they ready to go through Russia and his other allies and risk losing badly .

The burden is always on the agresssor , because often the world will take recognition when brutal acts of war are initiated upon the public . Support may not equate to military intervention to defend Syria immediately , but it will certainly put a target on the saudis backs in the near future , and they run the risk of even their allies pulling out if they don't see true motive or justification for any attack .

a reply to: MrSpad

Russian Armed Forces
Active personnel 771,000 (2014)[1] (ranked 5th)
Reserve personnel 2,000,000[2]


Turkish Armed Forces
Total 639,551, incl:[2](ranked 8th)

51,863 Civilian staff
170,295 Gendarmerie
4,702 Coast Guard
412,691 Military[nb 3]
Reserve personnel 378,700

Russia's ever growing 771,000 with 2 million in ready reserve is immensely larger than the Turks 412,691 with 378,700 in reserve.

The shear amount of Tanks, BMP's, Choppers, bombers and fighter aircraft would be overwhelming for Turkey to handle. They would have a tough fight for a few weeks if that but after Russia would knock them on their backside and it would be nothing more than the suicide squads that would give them a headache.

Russia would have air dominance in two maybe three days if they have help leaving everything on the ground to be slaughtered from above.

Russia could simply roll over Turkey and to think otherwise is a serious mistake. Russia does not fight like the U.S., they are less likely to avoid vital targets just because some civilians might be near.

Saudi has already shifted its plans in response to the Russian promise to wipe their troops out. They have ordered their people out of Lebanon and sent assets to areas off the Lebanon cost so they can attack through their and take Damascus fast, leaving Russia no time to save Assad's HQ. Turkey has sent Subs to the area off the coast, opposite the Russian base in Syria to sink the Russian ships there that provide air defense and cruise missile platforms.

Turkey knows if they can sink Russian ships via subs the U.S. will be blamed initially and Russia will be forced to confront the U.S. , dragging us into the mess and probably slowing down any Russian response to protect Assad.

I think this will sadly result in a tit for tat U.S.-Russia fight but after the two realize what its heading to, they will pull back and stop. Both laying blame on Turkey but it being to late to save Syria, Russia will accept reality and move on picking up the pieces of a tattered military. Seeing the U.S. and Russia occupied with each other will give all the Arabs the instant idea to attack Israel while they can, having a massive army on Israels border.

a reply to: Unvarnished771

and I wouldn't be surprised if they end up supporting ISIS against everyone. Let's pray that does not happen

ISIS are Saudi and Turkeys irregular forces!!!!! Saudi Arabia has supported the effort with money and some men while the bulk has come via Turkey, they have since day one to try and unseat the leadership of Iraq. When Iran put a stop to that, they followed the Turkish ambitions to conquer Syria for their dream of a new Ottoman empire as they had in Libya with their then labeled Muslim Brotherhood.

Ever since the Muslim Brotherhood was publicly embarrassed and humiliated in Egypt they were forced back home to Turkey. They changed their name and have shown the world, well people who can put two and two together their true colors as ISIS. Remember how much Obama was behind the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt? He cried and whined for days over their ousting. The Egyptians were very wise to see them for what they were in time, before they had the second most powerful military in the are at their disposal.

Well, since Saudi Arabia demands a regime change in Syria, I think boots-on-the-ground are a distinct possibility.