UK Referendum 23 June 2016 - Will it be an EU BREXIT or Not?

When it comes to Osborne and the economy in the same sentence, then you can safely assure that the forecasts are miles off.

When has any of his economic forecasts ever been correct?

The bloke is a complete numpty who lucked out with the price of oil driving down inflation. It certainly hasn't been down to any of his budgetary decisions.

it's certainly Project Fear being played out.

Both Cameron and Osborne stated they were willing to lead the U.K out of the E.U unless they could secure fundamental changes to the E.U. As we have seen, their changes have little effect on the U.K membership and they would never have campaigned for the U.K to leave.

I can't believe what we've had to endure today in the MSM.
The Bremainers really have sunk to a new low with all this propaganda.

“The most likely result is that Britain would be poorer by £4,300 per household. That is £4,300 worse off every year, a bill paid year after year by the working people of Britain.”
George Osbourne

Firstly, this is irresponsibly misleading. We're not going to personally lose this money. It's not like we will have an extra £4,300 in our bank account's per year if we vote Remain.

Secondly, this is based on so many assumptions or missing details...

- The assumption that the government would break its promise of reducing net migration to the tens of thousands.
- The assumption there won't be another global crash up to 2030 (which I personally find hard to believe)
- Doesn't include if we manage to sign free trade agreements with other countries around the World
- Doesn't include us having our coastal waters back, which will boost trade and jobs
- Doesn't include the extra regulations and increased cost the EU in the coming years

Even when they made a forecast where we would still have free trade and full access to the single market, they predicted we would still suffer financially. I don't understand how they come to this conclusion.

Not to mention George Osbourne's budget forecasts have always been terribly inaccurate.

Georgie also said that "wages would be lower", contradicting Lord Rose (chairman of Britain Stronger in Europe) who said that wages of low skilled workers would rise in the event of Brexit.


At the end of the day, if all this doom would arise from a Brexit...
- Why did Cameron give us a referendum in the first place?
- Why did he say that if he didn't get a good deal in his negotiations he would campaign to Leave?
- Why are there so many economists, politicians and businesses saying we could thrive outside the EU?
- Why couldn't the UK and EU sign a free-trade agreement in the interests of the 'global economy'?

a reply to: Flavian

My issue with the Leave camp is that they just won't give answers.

I must admit, they have come up with very few answers.

Yes, we will survive and I firmly believe that given time we will prosper again far better than we would if we remain in the EU in its current manifestation.
But I would like to see some cold, hard facts and some sort of joined up plan of what is proposed after we break away from the EU.

My preference would be for some sort of National government with the 'best' of all sides involved - I know, its hard to think of our current crop of politicians and the term 'best' in the same context - for a couple of years followed by elections.

I won't go on here about my belief in the need for radical reform of our electoral and parliamentary procedures and I acknowledge that if we leave the EU then that probably would not be the best time for such reform.

a reply to: Freeborn

Hahaha ... your so funny or perhaps sad.

No project fear in Scotland eh. You are joking right. You've just made it clear you have absolutely no idea what your talking about. It was SNP versus everyone else. The Media, Westminster, Every Leader of every country Cameron could get to chime in including Obama and Putin, The Queen, the Civil Service and even celebrities.

I want a second referendum because a lot of people were conned with project fear. Plus none of 'The Vow' has been delivered as promised another con. A vow which if I may add was made during the purdah period which is illegal thereby making the vote null and void.

I will wait and see how you react if the Remain vote win. That will be funny.

I'm voting Remain.

Where did I ever blame 'the English' for anything. Scotland's problems are not due to the English. They are due to Westminster Rule which also causes lots of problems for many parts of England that are not near South East/London/Westminster

Your last paragraph is really good and proves you don't understand anything I said, because you have it completely wrong. I said people should ignore the Project Fear crap and vote how they like but hopefully to vote to LEAVE ... LEAVE .... LEAVE

If I lived in England I would vote to Leave. But I live in Scotland so I'm voting to Remain

Try reading next time before putting your foot in it again. Dear dear dear

a reply to: bigyin

Hahaha ... your so funny or perhaps sad.

I'm quite a cheerful sort of chap - except when crossed - but I wouldn't say I'm a renowned comedian or funny man.

...It was SNP versus everyone else.

The SNP had quite considerable resources at their disposal and they wheeled out their own rota of 'celebrities' etc.

I want a second referendum because a lot of people were conned with project fear.

You want a second referendum because you didn't get the result you wanted first time, simple and easy as that.

Plus none of 'The Vow' has been delivered as promised another con.

I'll certainly give you that one.
Personally I think those who promised the earth and failed to deliver should be prosecuted - same goes for all politicians who fail to deliver on their electoral promises etc.

I think I'd be a tadge pissed off too.

I live in North East England - no-one really promises us anything and we don't expect anything - sad but true.

I will wait and see how you react if the Remain vote win. That will be funny.

I think I covered that in one of my recent posts in this thread, perhaps you missed that bit?

I'm voting Remain.

And that is entirely your right to do so.
I just hope you are doing so because you genuinely feel it is the best and right option for Scotland and the UK.

Quite ironic that you're on the same side as all those politicians who failed to deliver on any of those promises they made to you in your referendum.

Where did I ever blame 'the English' for anything. Scotland's problems are not due to the English. They are due to Westminster Rule which also causes lots of problems for many parts of England that are not near South East/London/Westminster

Fair enough - and quite reasonable.
But at least some of the problems are of Scotland's own doing - same as anywhere.

The anti-English bigotry and 'blame it on the bastard English' attitude is a common one and can be seen quite regularly.
To deny that is just sheer ignorance.

If I lived in England I would vote to Leave. But I live in Scotland so I'm voting to Remain

A genuine and certainly not loaded question; Why exactly the difference?

I understand you have no fondness for Westminster - and rest assured, neither have I - yet you seem to believe Scotland will be treat far more favourably by the heavily centralised government in Brussels that seeks to override all national government authority with that of its own.
Independence for Scotland and all the other regions seeking independence or increased autonomy in Europe will be a far off dream if the EU gets all the powers it desires.

More from Vote Leave:

Imagine if we Vote Leave in 66 days’ time… We can take back control and use our money on our priorities such as the NHS and schools.



Huge support at Vote Leave events up and down the UK

A big thank you to everyone who came to our Vote Leave events right across the country this weekend to mark the start of the official campaign. Thousands of supporters came to hear from leading politicians and business people, as well as activists from some of our outreach groups such as Africans for Britain twitter.com...
, Women for Britain womenforbritain.org... , Muslims for Britain muslimsforbritainorg.wordpress.com... , BeLeave www.facebook.com... and Students for Britain twitter.com... . It’s great to see so much support from all walks of life for Vote Leave.

We launched our first advert twitter.com... of the campaign in Manchester. Labour MPs Gisela Stuart and Graham Stringer made clear that we should spend the £350 million we hand over to the EU every week on our priorities.

There were also hundreds of campaigning activities up and down the UK, ranging from street stalls and delivering leaflets to canvassing voters door-to-door. It’s fantastic to see so many supporters willing to give up their time for a cause they passionately believe in. www.voteleavetakecontrol.org... If you’d like to join them, please sign up now and let us know all the ways you can help.

We know that the enthusiasm from our supporters and activists and willingness to go that extra mile will win us this referendum and we thank all of you who turned out to support us this weekend. There is still much to do, however, and we look forward to your continued support over the coming weeks. We’ll be pulling out all the stops to make sure the country votes Leave on 23 June.

Can you display a poster?

One very simple way you can help right away is to put up a poster. We want people up and down the country to see how much support there is to Vote Leave and take back control on 23 June. There are two ways to get one:

If you’d like a PVC banner, an A3 poster, or a car sticker, you can order them via our online shop.
www.voteleavetakecontrol.org...#!/Posters-&-Car-Stickers/c/17926257/offset=0 &sort=priceDesc
If you’d like to print out a simple poster at home, you can download one here.
www.voteleavetakecontrol.org...



Uncontrolled EU migration puts pressure on schools places

Membership of the EU means we are completely unable to control EU migration, and that puts unsustainable pressure on our public services. Today, we are seeing one clear example of that, as tens of thousands of families are expected to be told that they will not obtain their first choice of school place for their children.

Commenting on this news, Priti Patel warns that the issue of uncontrolled migration will only get worse if we stay in the EU, with five more countries – Albania, Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia and Turkey – in the pipeline to join.
www.voteleavetakecontrol.org... _unsustainable_pressures_on_our_public_services?utm_campaign=160418_c_news&utm_medium=email&utm_source=voteleave
If we Vote Leave on 23 June, we can take back control of our borders and spend the £350 million we send to the EU every week on our priorities like schools.



Histrionics from the Treasury

George Osborne has this morning claimed it would be an ‘economic shock’ if we left the EU. This is the latest desperate effort by the Government to try and scare people into voting to stay in the EU. Importantly, the Treasury’s own figures suggest that the Government has abandoned its target of getting net migration back down to the tens of thousands. The only way to take back control of our borders and to ease the pressure on our public services is to Vote Leave.



Don’t believe the scare stories about the UK leaving the EU. Remember…

As the Chairman of the IN campaign admitted: ‘Nothing is going to happen if we come out ... There will be absolutely no change … It’s not going to be a step change or somebody’s going to turn the lights out.’
www.thetimes.co.uk...


Today’s must reads:

Beefy and I will whack the PM for six - Sunday Times
www.thetimes.co.uk...

We’ll quit Europe because Leavers simply care more - Tony Parsons, Sun on Sunday
www.thesun.co.uk...

School choice disappointment 'deeply regrettable', says minister Priti Patel - Mail
www.dailymail.co.uk...

As a patriot I’m going in to bat for my beliefs - Ian Botham, Sunday Times
www.thesundaytimes.co.uk...

Let Brexit battle commence - Mail (Saturday)
www.dailymail.co.uk...

A genuine and certainly not loaded question; Why exactly the difference? I understand you have no fondness for Westminster - and rest assured, neither have I - yet you seem to believe Scotland will be treat far more favourably by the heavily centralised government in Brussels that seeks to override all national government authority with that of its own. Independence for Scotland and all the other regions seeking independence or increased autonomy in Europe will be a far off dream if the EU gets all the powers it desires.

I've covered that in previous posts so I take it you are coming to the thread late and not bothered to read back. Common mistake which often causes embarrassment.

But just for you I'll give the reason again.

SNP policy is to remain in EU. However the SNP have lots of policies I don't agree with and thats one of them. Whether they genuinely believe it or not I dont know but they have also stated that if Scotland votes to stay in EU but we are taken out due to rest of UK (aka England) voting to leave then that situation would warrant a second Scottish Independence referendum.

So thats what I and the rest of SNP hopefully are aiming for.

So I want everyone in England to vote to Leave EU and everyone in Scotland to vote to Remain in EU to bring about second Scottish Independence Referendum.

Once Scotland is Independent we can have another referendum to decide whether to stay in EU. I will vote Leave in that one if it comes about.

originally posted by: eletheia

originally posted by: Flavian


How is that threatening? (the accusation made). It is simply an honest answer to a simple question. Frankly, the Leave camp is throwing so much tosh out there at the moment that i, for one, am glad the remain camp is injecting a little bit of realism. But apparently people don't like that, it is "scaremongering". Well that is a pathetic response. Instead of accusing the remain camp of scaremongering, how about offering up some evidence of why that may not be the case..........oh, that's right, because they can't.

Frankly no ones figures or projections (neither *in* nor *out*) count for anything

You may as well consult 'Mystic Meg' or 'Russell Grant' they have as much chance of

getting a prediction right!! And in the end that's all it is?


I don't believe anyone predicted the failure of the *Banks*...After all they were

too big to fail?


Added to which George Osborne's predictions on growth, and deficits over his time

as chancellor have been far from accurate.


The EU have recently penalised

the UK for doing better economically than any other member state by increasing

the sum we already paid in. That's a new one on me Penalties for doing well

I agree with that. For the Treasury to suggest figures and % with any reasonable margin of error is nia impossible and highly speculative crystal ball bunkum. And I don't think that the UK voters are fooled by the treasury 200 page guestimate document. I think they are more concerned about the other impacts of the EU on UK immigration and public services like school places, social housing, health services and NHS queues not to mention jobs. UK folk want their country back and are tired of feeling like foreigners in their own country. Open your ears to the sounds when you walk through your town centre's, when you are sat in a hospital waiting room or walking through a car boot sale, everyone's speaking different EU languages! This is what will decide the EU referendum, not dodgy one sided crystal ball figures that cannot checked!

And it is clear that the IN campaign are deliberately avoiding these issues because they know they are in trouble. Hence the 200 page toilet paper. Its a classic strategy when you don't have the substance just contrive a fictitious story and lots of documents!!

Furthermore, if we vote OUT after all the doom poop and claims that folk will be much worse off and they turn out not to be then this will prove that the Government are only interested in and care about the benefits of those that have! In fact I'm not sure the Government could survive after all they are stating, certainly not Cameron!

a reply to: 83Liberty

Why did Cameron give us a referendum in the first place?

I looked this up recently and it was apparently due to the perceived threat of mass Conservative defection to UKIP prior to the Election. He felt forced into it and did not have a choice so it was included in the manifesto.

I read that Obama was very much against the UK referendum and voiced his concerns to Cameron at the time. I also read that a senior member of Bush's administration (can't remember his name) claimed that without the UK, the US would not have a mouthpiece in the EU.

Obama will be feeding the British public pure unadulterated BS next week and his motive is very clear. I just hope people can see it for what it actually is, US self serving interests.

Now here is a true and classic statement by Cameron and Osbourne's political ally Mr Gove

www.msn.com... rVjB8?li=BBoPWjQ&ocid=mailsignout

Ouch!

originally posted by: Morrad
a reply to: 83Liberty

Why did Cameron give us a referendum in the first place?

I looked this up recently and it was apparently due to the perceived threat of mass Conservative defection to UKIP prior to the Election. He felt forced into it and did not have a choice so it was included in the manifesto.

I read that Obama was very much against the UK referendum and voiced his concerns to Cameron at the time. I also read that a senior member of Bush's administration (can't remember his name) claimed that without the UK, the US would not have a mouthpiece in the EU.

Obama will be feeding the British public pure unadulterated BS next week and his motive is very clear. I just hope people can see it for what it actually is, US self serving interests.

Because Miliband didn't and it was well perceived that there was sufficient anti EU support to at least offer a referendum which swung the vote enough for Cameron to win. However, his arrogance and underestimation of the UK voter is going to back fire!

If Miliband had offered a referendum he would be PM now!

Note:

This speech from Mr Grove now appears to have been removed from MSN.

www.msn.com... rVjB8?li=BBoPWjQ&ocid=mailsignout

Yet this BS is still there www.msn.com... gnout

These clowns are not to be trusted and dont represent the people of this country only those with interests in the EU and the bigger game plan!

Latest from Vote Leave:

We send £350 million a week to the EU – enough to build a new hospital a week

250,000 EU migrants a year come to the UK – it’s out of control and damages the NHS

It’s safer to take back control and spend our money on our priorities



Imagine if we Vote Leave in 65 days’ time… We can take back control and not be subservient to unelected EU judges



Michael Gove - The facts point to a Leave vote

The Justice Secretary Michael Gove will today deliver a keynote speech on how the UK can prosper and flourish after we Vote Leave. This morning he appeared on the Today programme to outline his vision of life outside the EU - you can listen to his statement here audioboom.com... and read it here. www.voteleavetakecontrol.org... ave

In his speech later today, Mr Gove will explain that democratic self-governments across the world enjoy economic growth, global influence and the ability to control their own borders. He will argue that after we take back control, the UK will be able to negotiate a new relationship with the EU based on free trade and friendly cooperation.

He will warn that a vote to stay in the EU is the real danger, as eurocrats will see it as a ‘carte blanche’ to take more power and money from the UK, whilst eurozone countries have a ‘permanent and unstoppable majority’. Mr Gove will also highlight how much control we have handed over to unelected EU judges, who now hold sway over our security and intelligence services and asylum policy.

The Justice Secretary will explain how the cost of EU membership is due to increase in the coming years, and that this money would be better spent on our priorities. He will point out that the UK Government would still be able to support farmers, scientists and universities after we Vote Leave.

Mr Gove will conclude that voting to leave will be a ‘galvanising, liberating, empowering moment of patriotic renewal’. You can watch the speech live on our website from 11:15. www.voteleavetakecontrol.org...

Our best days lie ahead outside the EU. Let’s take control on 23 June.



HM Treasury numbers don’t stand up to scrutiny

Treasury projections are rarely correct over 14 months, but George Osborne has endorsed a forecast which looks 14 years ahead. However, his figures are already beginning to fall apart under close analysis.

Crucially, the figures the Government has produced are based on it breaking its promise to reduce net migration to the tens of thousands. On top of this, the Treasury fails to take account of savings from cutting the cost of EU regulation and downplays or ignores other benefits of leaving the EU, including striking free trade agreements with major emerging economies and cutting the UK’s budget contributions. You can read our full response to the Treasury’s report here. www.voteleavetakecontrol.org... mail&utm_source=voteleave

As the fifth largest economy in the world, the UK will continue to trade freely with Europe after we Vote Leave. There’s a free trade zone from Iceland to Turkey and we will be part of that, securing jobs and boosting the economy.



Today’s must-reads:

Pro-EU ministers are treating voters like children, says Gove - Mail
www.dailymail.co.uk...

Gove: If we stay, Brussels will tell us to: Shut up and suck it up - Express
www.express.co.uk...

Let THREE MILLION MORE into the UK: George Osborne admits to migrant surge if we stay in EU - Sun
www.thesun.co.uk...

The Treasury's 'dodgy dossier' on Brexit is beneath contempt - Allister Heath, Telegraph
www.telegraph.co.uk...

The deceptions behind George Osborne’s Brexit report - Fraser Nelson, Spectator
blogs.spectator.co.uk...

Economists blast 'one-sided' Treasury warning on Brexit - Telegraph
www.telegraph.co.uk...

a reply to: RP2SticksOfDynamite

So Gove claims we send £350 million per week? That leaves me very disappointed in Gove - along with Jacob Rees Mogg he is by far the cleverst person in Parliament and yet he is lying about his figures. So he claims the Treasury report is nonsense.......and then responds with nonsense claims of his own!

Frankly, we all deserve better (whichever side of the debate we happen to be on). The true cost can be found here....

The UK's EU membership fees

And again, all the Leave camp are claiming the treasury report is false.........and yet the economic experts say it potentially doesn't go far enough.

Again, economics isn't the only argument here, there are other issues that many feel are just as important. But to dismiss the warnings from the experts because they don't fit the narrative is beyond belief - it is illogical and actually pretty reprehensible.

For balance though, i will state again that what we need is simple honesty from all parties. I get the feeling though that this will just be wishful thinking........

ETA:

Spoiler for those that can't be bothered to read the link - it is £250 million per week. This raises its own questions but. hopefully, demonstrates that i am at least attempting to be balanced in my debating here!

originally posted by: Flavian
a reply to: RP2SticksOfDynamite

So Gove claims we send £350 million per week? That leaves me very disappointed in Gove - along with Jacob Rees Mogg he is by far the cleverst person in Parliament and yet he is lying about his figures. So he claims the Treasury report is nonsense.......and then responds with nonsense claims of his own!

Frankly, we all deserve better (whichever side of the debate we happen to be on). The true cost can be found here....

The UK's EU membership fees

And again, all the Leave camp are claiming the treasury report is false.........and yet the economic experts say it potentially doesn't go far enough.

Again, economics isn't the only argument here, there are other issues that many feel are just as important. But to dismiss the warnings from the experts because they don't fit the narrative is beyond belief - it is illogical and actually pretty reprehensible.

For balance though, i will state again that what we need is simple honesty from all parties. I get the feeling though that this will just be wishful thinking........

ETA:

Spoiler for those that can't be bothered to read the link - it is £250 million per week. This raises its own questions but. hopefully, demonstrates that i am at least attempting to be balanced in my debating here!

It is clear that both sides will fight their corner by whatever means they see fit (and it will get messy). The really frustrating thing is that the IN campaign have completely sideswiped the issues of immigration and public service impacts like they are not important to the British electorate when in fact (and I believe the IN campaign know it) they are at the top of the reason list for voting OUT. The economics on both sides are at best guestimates and until we leave the EU the actuals will never be known (and again the IN campaign have tried to take big advantage of with their 200 page toilet paper . But I feel that people think that if we leave that we will prosper regardless and we will do what it takes to make it work. If the EU kicked us out we would have to do so and would for sure make it work as we will if we leave.

It is my personal belief that the real reasons for remaining in the EU are more to do with protecting the interests of those who wish to see more integration, and Governance by continent and eventually global, not to mention the greed factor for the top 10% who don't care about the rest! I predict that there will be a 60% vote leave on 23 June 2016. The British want to control their own destiny and are tired of being drowned in immigrants and have just had enough.

Do you think that this vote on www.pollstation.uk... isn't significant?

And even the ATS vote is running at approx 62% leave.

I don't believe the figures presented on the goggle box! Its not a medium founded on truth!

originally posted by: Flavian
So Gove claims we send £350 million per week? That leaves me very disappointed in Gove - along with Jacob Rees Mogg he is by far the cleverst person in Parliament and yet he is lying about his figures. So he claims the Treasury report is nonsense.......and then responds with nonsense claims of his own!

Frankly, we all deserve better (whichever side of the debate we happen to be on). The true cost can be found here....

The UK's EU membership fees

You are totally correct in pointing this out. Ive posted that link to FullFact many times.
I believe it's probably the best independent website for finding facts about the EU.

I don't understand why Brexiters continue to state £350 million because it's inaccurate and gives the Bremainers a come back.