M Class solar flare likely

I monitor the solar activity using the NASA SWx app.

There is high probability of an M Class flare. Also X Class if not M.

Love this.

Edit again to add,... I state this using NASAs own probability algorithm results. As it stands, 50 percent chance of a flare.






Edit... is this the right forum for this?

a reply to: smirkley

55% of M class
10% of X class

Probably a higher chance of M class than 55% in my opinion

Thanks for the update, but can you tell me what this actually means?


It's great that you started a topic, and I applaud you, but when you make a grand proclamation, it's always good to explain the implications.

Don't assume we all know what you're talking about.

The app doesn't work on my phone. Sucks I wish I knew what was going on.

a reply to: TomLawless
Try this for a brief explanation:
www.abovetopsecret.com...

a reply to: TomLawless

It means virtually nothing at the moment.

Northern lights, maybe a bit of radio interference.

a reply to: Chadwickus

I watch and monitor solar activity. I enjoy it. And flares are not like an everyday thing. I thought it interesting enough to post.

a reply to: smirkley

So whats the extent of the danger posed to our Earth by this M class flare?

Are we talking another Carrington event that could possibly wipe out our communications networks and power grids or just some pretty colours in the sky?

a reply to: andy06shake

Unless there is an Earth directed CME associated with a flare (if it occurs), you won't notice much. Perhaps a bit of interference for satellite based communications.

It has dropped to 19% but still active.

Ah well, light show cancelled.

The sun spots broke up before they could do much..
youtu.be...

a reply to: smirkley

Does the app give the probability of how far in the future it will happen - next week, next month?

a reply to: 727Sky

Now the guy in the video sounds like he knows his stuff. Really.

I dont know if the probability factor has a time element to it. Not sure.

indeed a small m-flare M1.8 was just released, nothing to be worried about.
If you watch the ssregion on the magnetogram, nothing really big will happen imo, the region is decaying especially the delta region.

www.solarham.net...

I would rather be worried about the northern coronal hole and the solar wind associated with it.

a reply to: smirkley

Just about the time you think the sun will behave it surprises you.
Long Solar Flare & CME Directed at Earth [Dec.28.2015]
youtu.be...

originally posted by: smirkley
a reply to: 727Sky

Now the guy in the video sounds like he knows his stuff. Really.

I dont know if the probability factor has a time element to it. Not sure.

Didn't he say the sunspot had broken up and wouldn't produce any more flares?

He also mentions a comet and how we should watch solar activity caused by the comet. That's BS.

originally posted by: Chadwickus

originally posted by: smirkley
a reply to: 727Sky

Now the guy in the video sounds like he knows his stuff. Really.

I dont know if the probability factor has a time element to it. Not sure.

Didn't he say the sunspot had broken up and wouldn't produce any more flares?

He also mentions a comet and how we should watch solar activity caused by the comet. That's BS.

Actually I have been watching his videos almost on a daily basis for what seems to me to be a long time; he has more than one sun diving comet causing a solar flare recorded. Believe what you want but tracking a comet approach the sun and then a solar flare happens seems pretty convincing to me.
Also if you think he is wrong and full of it there are others who would disagree:
youtu.be...

Action reaction..... or just swamp gas release ?
youtu.be...

a reply to: 727Sky

Years ago I investigated this claim.

It's BS.

Maybe you should too, instead of blindly believing some guy on YouTube and his selectively picked videos.

originally posted by: Chadwickus
a reply to: 727Sky

Years ago I investigated this claim.

It's BS.

Maybe you should too, instead of blindly believing some guy on YouTube and his selectively picked videos.

I don't have a dog in this fight and what you believe is up to you not me. I posted two other videos from two separate sources and if I felt like wasting my time with you I could have posted ????? more. Like I said you believe what you want to believe regardless of the videos.. Must be CGI or some conspiracy time lapse photo thingy ?
Another sun diving comet
youtu.be...


Otherwise the examples I have seen look convincing to me as a possible action reaction.

But I am not a certified anything to do with space weather, our sun, or the universe for that matter. Just a guy who has eyes to see and a brain (right or wrong) to think about possibilities.

a reply to: 727Sky

You've seen cherry picked videos making you think sun diving comets affect the sun.

They don't.

Plenty of videos out there, here's one..



Wait, what? No flare??