Trump is KILLING the Republican chances for Presidency

The havoc that Trump wreaks — on his own party

I'm going to start off by saying that I don't enjoy talking about Trump because he seems to revel in any attention and talking about him gives him attention, but I've been reading online some cold hard facts about what Trump is doing to the Republican party. This is pretty interesting and should REALLY worry Republicans. If you are a Trump supporter, you may be part of the problem; please seriously consider the information I'm about to relay here.

The white percentage of the electorate has been shrinking for decades and will be about 2 points smaller in 2016 than in 2012. In 2008, Barack Obama became the first president elected while losing the white vote by double digits. In 2012, Hispanics, the nation’s largest minority, were for the first time a double-digit (10 percent) portion of the electorate. White voters were nearly 90 percent of Romney’s vote. In 1988, George H.W. Bush won 59 percent of the white vote, which translated into 426 electoral votes. Twenty-four years later, Romney won 59 percent of the white vote and just 206 electoral votes. He lost the nonwhite vote by 63 points, receiving just 17 percent of it. If the Republicans’ 2016 nominee does not do better than Romney did among nonwhite voters, he will need 65 percent of the white vote, which was last achieved by Ronald Reagan when carrying 49 states in 1984. Romney did even slightly worse among Asian Americans — the fastest-growing minority — than among Hispanics. Evidently, minorities generally detected Republican ambivalence, even animus, about them. This was before Trump began receiving rapturous receptions because he obliterates inhibitions about venting hostility.

This should be a HUGE red flag to Republicans and Conservatives. This ISN'T a viable strategy to get to the White House. The numbers don't lie. It's becoming impossible to win on the national stage with just the white vote. Now the go to response to this is to point to the election of last year and how the Republicans won all those seats in Congress. Well, that was because the majority of minority voters didn't turn out for the elections. You can bet your ass that they'll turn out next year.

Keep in mind. It's not just the Washington Post that has come to this conclusion. Here's another article that goes over pretty much the same thing.

Trump Preaching to Shrinking White Electorate Creates Problems for GOP

Exactly 19 years ago this week Bob Dole, as the recently chosen 1996 Republican presidential nominee, faced the same question that Donald Trump has presented his rivals today: whether to support ending the Constitution's guarantee of automatic citizenship for all children born in the U.S.

At the national convention that nominated Dole and Jack Kemp that summer, the party's platform called for revoking the provision in the 14th Amendment that ensured citizenship for all U.S.-born children, regardless of their parents' immigration status. Dole had remained vague on that plank during the convention, but in an appearance with Kemp before the National Association of Black Journalists on Aug. 23, 1996, the new nominee briskly rejected the idea.

''For generations, white children of white immigrants, regardless of their status, enjoyed citizenship,'' one reporter said to him, according to The New York Times. ''Now that the new immigrants are black and brown, would you support a constitutional amendment denying them citizenship?'' Dole's reply was unequivocal: "No."

For Dole, the choice of defending the 14th Amendment's promise of birthright citizenship "was a no-brainer," recalled Scott Reed, his campaign manager. "There were a handful of issues Dole just didn't agree with [in the platform] and he wasn't going to roll along without saying something."

So put that into context. A mere NINETEEN years ago the idea of getting rid of the birthright citizenship was so anathema to Republicans that it was a "no-brainer" to even consider it before rejecting it. Keep in mind, Bob Dole lost that election.

So here's the thing, Dole couldn't even spur enough of the Latino vote off of that position to help him win the election, yet Trump not only has done a 180 on that, he is dragging the rest of the party with him.

The businessman argues that the 14th Amendment does not, in fact, guarantee citizenship to the estimated 4.5 million U.S. children born of undocumented immigrants; if the courts agreed, that presumably would make those children subject to the deportation he pledges to pursue against all those here illegally.

But in responding to Trump, the 2016 Republicans have wavered far more than Dole did. About half of the GOP field (including Ted Cruz, Rick Santorum, and Ben Carson) has also endorsed ending birthright citizenship, at least prospectively. Scott Walker quickly embraced the idea before backpedaling to reject it. Even the two candidates who most forthrightly rejected Trump's call could not completely escape his gravitational pull.

Marco Rubio said he would not seek to change the Constitution, but would take unspecified steps to combat those "taking advantage of the 14th Amendment." Jeb Bush, while also rejecting constitutional change and praising America's "diversity," courted Trump's constituency by adopting his incendiary "anchor babies" language.

Oh yeah. This article points out the same glaring problem with the statistics that the Post had.

After Mitt Romney lost decisively in 2012 despite winning a greater share of white voters than Ronald Reagan did in 1980, the Republican National Committee's official postelection review concluded that the party "will lose future elections" without attracting a larger share of the growing minority vote. That impulse peaked in June 2013, when 14 Senate Republicans (led by Rubio and 2008 nominee John McCain) helped pass sweeping immigration reform that included a pathway to citizenship for undocumented immigrants.

Again. Here is yet a THIRD source from Fortune saying much the same things as the first two:
Why Donald Trump's antics pose a serious long-term threat to the GOP

Again, Fortune mentions the statistical problems with Trump's campaign position.

Republicans’ struggles to make inroads among Hispanic voters are well-known. Mitt Romney’s miserable 2012 performance among the demographic — after suggesting 11 million undocumented workers “self-deport,” he won 27% of the Hispanic vote in that election — convinced party brass that Republicans had to quickly rally and approve wholesale immigration reform to have a prayer of recapturing the White House in 2016.

[cont in next post]

Then the article goes on to point out the SAME problem that the second article pointed out. That Trump is pulling the rest of the GOP down with him.

The first part is simple: Hispanics have noticed. Despite Trump’s insistence that he’d carry the Hispanic vote in the general election, in the real world, his approval ratings among them are singularly awful. A Gallup tracking poll of Hispanic views toward the GOP candidates released on Monday found that while they place the rest of the field within a relatively narrow band, from Texas Sen. Ted Cruz at net negative 7% to former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush at net positive 11%, they deeply dislike Trump, earning him a net negative 51% approval rating. (For that, Trump can thank aggressive coverage from Spanish-language media, in which Ramos is a trusted leading voice and an outspoken critic of his candidacy.) The longer Trump reigns in the primary, the concern from GOP sachems goes, the graver the damage he’ll inflict to the Republican brand, particularly among the constituencies the party will need to win over 14 months from now.

The second threat Trump presents is slightly more subtle. Call it the “Trump effect”—the scramble by lower-polling contenders to grab some of The Donald’s spotlight by either aping his combative style or his controversial platform—or both. And it was on display on Tuesday evening: While other cable networks were rehashing Trump’s flap with Ramos, Cruz popped up on Fox striking an unusually chippy tone with Megyn Kelly over his own immigration plan. Kelly cited Trump’s proposal to forcibly remove entire families—even those with children born in the United States—if the parents came in illegally, and asked Cruz how he’d address the same scenario. Cruz dodged, calling the question a distraction and one that President Obama and “every mainstream media liberal journalist” wanted to ask.

Ok guys. That is THREE separate sources all saying the same thing. Trump is POISON to the GOP's chances for the Presidency. Look, I know many of the Conservatives reading this may not like me or not like my opinions, but these opinions aren't just mine. It's not like I pulled these opinions off of some random blogs on the internet either. Each of these three sources are HIGHLY respected journalism sources.

To be honest, I like have independent opinions politically, but it's positions like Trumps that push me further and further left. Take the anecdote pointed out by the second article about Dole. I'm not that old of a guy (only 30), and I distinctly remember that election still. If Dole would have that opinion NOW, he wouldn't even be a Presidential contender and most conservatives would be calling him a RINO.

I mean, I can't ask that conservatism goes back to the way it was 19 years ago, but at LEAST see the Trojan Horse in your midst, destroying you from within. STOP supporting him!

a reply to: Krazysh0t

With the primaries six months off and the general more than a year away there is still plenty of road to travel for both parties.

I still recall the 2008 predicted showdown of Rudy and the Hill-dog.

a reply to: AugustusMasonicus

Well then this is the perfect time to write this article, when it's not too late to wake some Conservatives up from supporting this buffoon.

Well, yeah, he could kill it.

On the other hand, he just might win the damned thing.

I think its all part of the plan myself...

Trump is taking all the focus right now, so that means Jeb is not even being looked at, as in no dirt digging, fact finding time is being spent at all on Jeb. By the time it really starts to matter, it will be too late and Trump will bow out and here comes Jeb looking fresh and man what a relief it was not Trump everyone will say...he will look like gold.

Just the opposite is happening on the Dem side as you can see, get rid of Hillary right off the bat. Do you really think people want Biden as Pres?? Even with Warren as VP Jeb pulls off the win.

I personally think we are screwed no matter who wins this one, there is no different, there is no change. They all play on the same team and it aint the same one you and I belong too either.

Maybe we should end the partisan bullcrap and just have everyone run independently? Why do I need to choose between a Dem or a Rep? I'm getting really sick of Reps and Dems choosing an official candidate. I'd like to see at least 6 candidates with equal media coverage.

That wouldn't be beneficial to the people in power, now would it?

Alas, time goes on, and the jig is up. The media is slowly losing it's sway, and hopefully, one day, the constant construction of false realities will cease.

He is also energizing a large section of the population who generally do not vote. People who have had enough of career politicians and politicians in general. It's a long way off and a toss up. It's up for him to lose at this point. The dems don't have a strong candidate if Hillary is brought down.

The GOP needs to die.

It's no better than the DNC anyway.

Perhaps he can resurrect it.

originally posted by: Krazysh0t
a reply to: AugustusMasonicus

Well then this is the perfect time to write this article, when it's not too late to wake some Conservatives up from supporting this buffoon.

they won't support him when it's time to vote....these are just the people that listen to crazy bastards in the right-wing media

a reply to: Krazysh0t

I read and re-read your OP and it is well written and well documented. And yes, it is most likely the case that Trump is ending any hope the Republicans might have had of winning the White House. I saw poll results right here on ATS indicating something like 51% of Hispanic voters dislike Trump and 47% support Hillary.

What I don't understand is why you would want to encourage Conservatives to stop supporting Trump?

I don't have firm statistics to back this up, but it would be my guess that the demographic most supportive of Trump hits here on the following points:
1) They are anti-abortion, or as you would state it, anti-choice. They are misogynists.
2) They are climate change deniers; they are anti-science; they are knuckle dragging flat earthers.
3) They are anti-LGBT rights; pro-traditional family, etc. Homophobes.
4) They tend to be Christocentric.
5) They oppose multiculturalism; which translates to mean they tend to be racist, white supremacists.

By ending the Republican party, once and for all, as a party capable of operating on a "National" level, Trump relegates the Republican party to the back woods of fly-over country and strengthens the Democrat party to the point that the US can finally be a true One Party Nation with One Party rule. That will end the divisiveness and allow the Progressive Agenda to have free reign over the Nation.

The Republicans and the white racists that are their base are demographic toast and are eventually to be relegated to the ash bin of history, of that there is no doubt. But glory be, Trump ups that timeline by orders of magnitude. Celebrate it........encourage it! Cheer them on! He simply brings Utopia closer to fruition!

originally posted by: Wiz4769
I think its all part of the plan myself...

Trump is taking all the focus right now, so that means Jeb is not even being looked at, as in no dirt digging, fact finding time is being spent at all on Jeb. By the time it really starts to matter, it will be too late and Trump will bow out and here comes Jeb looking fresh and man what a relief it was not Trump everyone will say...he will look like gold.

Just the opposite is happening on the Dem side as you can see, get rid of Hillary right off the bat. Do you really think people want Biden as Pres?? Even with Warren as VP Jeb pulls off the win.

I personally think we are screwed no matter who wins this one, there is no different, there is no change. They all play on the same team and it aint the same one you and I belong too either.

Our only hope is if Trump actually wins, otherwise, yeah we're screwed.

Hillary: weak, evil, fake wars, no winners.
Bush: weak, powered by hawks, more wars, no winners.
Bernie: Dream on!

Trump: total annihilation of anyone in our way. Full force slap down on every foreign crybaby's face. End of the chain of corruption that we have been getting by voting coke or pepsi each time and not understanding why our teeth keep falling out.

a reply to: Krazysh0t

Meanwhile, Hillary continues to thumb her nose at the law and national security, while enjoying a media that is doing its best to keep her out of the headlines and do damage control.

I hope Trump takes the entire party down with him. Trump highlights everything that is wrong with the party and the people that would support them. The only difference is that Trump is willing to openly say what they think, while the others hide behind political correctness and are only bold enough to insinuate.

We've seen what the party has become and it's seems that the propaganda has worked.

Let the party fall.

Here is another thing Krazysh0t white folks with sense are bolting, either switching party or becoming indie..they are left with Fox news voters most of whom won't be alive for much longer.

originally posted by: TonyS
What I don't understand is why you would want to encourage Conservatives to stop supporting Trump?

Yeah, Krazy, why try to save a party that would vote to put a 1%-er (not to mention an inexperienced, unintelligent, total jerk) like Donald Trump into office? The GOP has morphed into something that doesn't even resemble true conservatism anymore. Let them self-destruct.

(And to be politically correct, The Democratic party has morphed into something that doesn't even resemble true liberalism anymore, either. The parties have both gone to the extremes and we need to scrap the whole business and start over. Sorry if I offended any GOPers with my above statement.)

Why are you participants not even mentioning Sanders? (I see tonyS did while I was typing...but with a derogatory reference)
He's certainly not invisible...and he's running as a Dem. BUT IS AN Independent.

Now all of a sudden, Biden is the guy? No. Sanders already has a nifty grip of the populace because of what he stands for.

But - back to the Elephants in the room....I've been saying since the midterms ended that the Reps would implode due to their constant obstructionism to anything the Dems try to do. I'd go dig up my post where I said that last year, but, meh.

You all are doing it to yourselves. It was easily predictable. And it just gets worse every day.



Muahahahahaaaa

originally posted by: TonyS
a reply to: Krazysh0t

I read and re-read your OP and it is well written and well documented. And yes, it is most likely the case that Trump is ending any hope the Republicans might have had of winning the White House. I saw poll results right here on ATS indicating something like 51% of Hispanic voters dislike Trump and 47% support Hillary.

What I don't understand is why you would want to encourage Conservatives to stop supporting Trump?

I don't have firm statistics to back this up, but it would be my guess that the demographic most supportive of Trump hits here on the following points:
1) They are anti-abortion, or as you would state it, anti-choice. They are misogynists.
2) They are climate change deniers; they are anti-science; they are knuckle dragging flat earthers.
3) They are anti-LGBT rights; pro-traditional family, etc. Homophobes.
4) They tend to be Christocentric.
5) They oppose multiculturalism; which translates to mean they tend to be racist, white supremacists.

By ending the Republican party, once and for all, as a party capable of operating on a "National" level, Trump relegates the Republican party to the back woods of fly-over country and strengthens the Democrat party to the point that the US can finally be a true One Party Nation with One Party rule. That will end the divisiveness and allow the Progressive Agenda to have free reign over the Nation.

The Republicans and the white racists that are their base are demographic toast and are eventually to be relegated to the ash bin of history, of that there is no doubt. But glory be, Trump ups that timeline by orders of magnitude. Celebrate it........encourage it! Cheer them on! He simply brings Utopia closer to fruition!

Wrong on all accounts.
I support Trump because I am a total anarchist and I hate the system and I hate that everyone supports it with their naivety.

Trump equals change - up your but, rammed up your but - change. Not "Hope I get some change" or "I hope theres a dollar in this change"

Goodbye Lie #1 or Lie #2

Wake up, everything is a lie!

I think Trump is plowing a trough and trench for Biden.

There's a different kind of competition this election.

originally posted by: beezzer
The GOP needs to die.

Very brave comment, in today's world. Could be perceived as a threat against party members.

I know that is not what you meant.

Does the DNC need to go away as well, considering you feel both partys are no better than each other?
If so, what do you see as replacement for our two party system?