Looks Like I'm Gonna Get Flogged

G'day ATS.

As the title says, it looks like we're in for a cyclone, and I sincerely hope it's a fizzer. They have crossed the coast here before, but they're rare.

At 7am EST Tropical Cyclone Marcia was estimated to be 450 km NNE of Yeppoon and 600 km north of Bundaberg, moving SW at 27 km/h.

Weatherzone

This is the current threat and track map from Weatherzone. I'm in the red bit.



This is the US Navy track map, which I generally find to be remarkably accurate in it's predictions. I'm in the middle of that.



And here is a current snapshot of what it looks like.



I've been through quite a number of these things in a few countries around the world. Some of them have been frightening, seriously, these things when they're big are really not funny at all.

Cyclone Marcia is forecast to be a CAT 2 when it crosses the coast and is expected to dump up to 0.5m of rain in some areas with winds in excess of 120km/h. Ordinarily I wouldn't be too concerned about an event like this, however the area that this thing is crossing hasn't seen winds like this for many a year. Sure they've had rain and some catastrophic floods, the following is Rockhampton from a couple of years ago.



The difference is that this rain has not been accompanied with high winds.

It's the high winds that find the weak points which are generally peoples roofs, trees and tree/powerline interaction. As I said before I sincerely hope this is a fizzer, but I guess we'll find out tomorrow morning when it's due to cross the coast.

Anyway, there you have it, I may be in for a flogging so I'm off to the bottleshop now to buy some beer. If I don't update this thread tomorrow, it's because I've got no power.

Kind Regards
Myselfaswell

Stock up with storm-brew and storm-hangover cures and you'll be all right! Make sure you fight the crows for water and canned goods, just in case.

a reply to: myselfaswell

stock up and be safe.

a reply to: myselfaswell

Good luck mate! You might need it...

a reply to: swanne

Ha, Ha. Made me laugh that one. I hope not, but like you implied, you never know.

As for stocking up, I've got heaps. I've also got plenty of gas and candles.

Fortunately I recently got a new chainsaw. Stihl 660 with a 36' bar, it's a beast. I've got a smaller 171 with a 17' bar. I'm really hoping they stay in the shed.

Kind Regards
Myselfaswell

I will trade you weather with -14F coming tomorrow.

(Be safe.)

originally posted by: DMFL1133
I will trade you weather with -14F coming tomorrow.

(Be safe.)

I would take -14F over a hurricane anytime.

I live comfortably at -22F.

(Clarification: I'm Canadian. )

a reply to: DMFL1133

Erm, let me think abou.., no.

Mate, that's definitely beyond any kind of warm soup weather I've ever experienced.

Probably an obvious statement, but, don't eat the yellow snow.

All the Best for tomorrow & Kind Regards
Myselfaswell

a reply to: myselfaswell

Greetings from Miami Florida.
We call those Hurricanes.

Trim your trees. Put up the shutters.
Get a gallon of water per day per person for at least a 3 day supply.
Make sure you have gas for you grill.
Stock up on some canned food.
Clean and fill up your bathtub with water. Boil it as needed if you use it for drinking or cooking.

Good luck.

a reply to: myselfaswell

Hope you get through the weather safely....the radio is warning us.... all the locals here are stocking up and talking about the storm .....

I get flooded in when it rains heavy so extra beer and wine will be stocked up on today....i am the Queensland/NSW border so we will miss the winds i imagine but still get some serious rain...they are talking about some 300ml ...

Gl stay safe ...

a reply to: hopenotfeariswhatweneed

G'day mate. Yeah looking at the GFS model out to 192hrs your gonna get wet feet.



Kind Regards
Myselfaswell

a reply to: myselfaswell

I would imagine there's a bit of worry about flooding. How safe does your place feel in that regard?

Hope it fizzles out with a whimper.

a reply to: myselfaswell

Stay safe, and head to high ground if possible to ride out the storm, from the rain pic you posted it sure looks like the entire area isn't much above sea level..

a reply to: myselfaswell

Far out the middle of the purple bit in that pic looks like it is above my house......time to pull out the gum boots

a reply to: aboutface

For sure we'll get flooded in, but there's no risk of the house and shed being inundated, so pretty good on that front.

I know there will be plenty of other people around the area with a different outlook.

The bad thing about this storm, other than the obvious, is that it's not going to push in land too far. There are many areas to the west that are effectively still in drought and badly need the rain. I really hope they get some, but I'm really wishing to hope on that one by the look of it.

Kind Regards
Myselfaswell

a reply to: hopenotfeariswhatweneed

Just a quick update for you.



This is the GFS model out to 48hrs. Looks like you'll be experiencing a couple of days of 100mm+ rainfall per day for at least a couple to 3 days.

Kind Regards
Myselfaswell

a reply to: myselfaswell

Damn east coasters scared of a little wind and drizzle!

Only kidding, hopefully it doesn't get too nasty for you guys!

a reply to: myselfaswell

Cheers for that it does look like a lot of rain

a reply to: Chadwickus

And the bad news.

It's now a CAT3. Forecast to be CAT4 on landfall. Dagnabit.

I've experienced this type of rapid cyclonic increase before and it wasn't good then.

Warning Linkification Here

ETA: For those interested this is the current radar imagery. The storm in the NT is a CAT4. The storm in QLD is CAT3 going on 4.



ETA: CAT 4 has been issued. Some poor buggers gonna cop it, whoever you are keep your head down.

Kind Regards
Myselfaswell

News just breaking it could hit land as a Category 5!

Cyclones Australia