I do not think the general population could be much worse off to be honest. They would likely invite any hope of improvement, which does not seem
likely even if a putsch was to succeed. The truth is that we can only speculate regarding the true state of affairs for the average citizen of North
Korea. Life is inherently better for those living in Pyongyang, and no westerner has been allowed to view what goes on inside the country's depths. We
know atrocities are being committed, and in fact, we know that some of the prison camps have been expanded since Kim Jong-Un has inherited power, due
to satellite imagery. The majority of intelligence comes from such indirect sources, as North Korea is one of those countries where it is virtually
impossible to embed a resident intelligence agent. Although I would not doubt that we have official cover spies in some of the embassies in Pyongyang.
The US doesn't have an embassy there, but we do have an American interest section within the Swiss embassy, and we also have allied countries with
offices within Pyongyang. But I highly doubt any useful military or political intel comes from these assets.
Defectors seem to be the best sources of information. Anyway, so it is quite possible that Jong-Un is a puppet, but I find it difficult to believe,
and here's why. The people in NK are taught to revere their leader, and at the first sign of a coup Jong-Un would have had the majority of the
military on his side. I am quite certain that more people would have sided with the leader than with the "old guard," and again this stems from the
fact that North Koreans are taught that their leader is a god from the moment they are old enough to learn. With no outside information coming in
there is nobody to challenge their beliefs, and one would be hard-pressed to change their minds if they have been indoctrinated from birth. My aunt
was born and grew up in Germany, and her grandmother reached adulthood when the Nazis were in power in Germany, and she had moved to the US and had
lived here up until her death about a decade ago. I remember her talking about those times, and till the day she died she never believed any of the
bad things that Hitler was accused of orchestrating. Why? Because of that same type of indoctrination, or at least in my opinion that is why. And the
opinion of the majority of the western world was against her beliefs, yet that still couldn't change what she had been taught. And I doubt she was the
I am just attempting to establish that the military of North Korea is not likely to side with anyone but their leader. The military is given top
priority in North Korea, and they are well-funded when compared with the other state organizations, which will go a long way to boosting morale and
keeping them content. The average solider is not going to change his situation with a coup in my opinion, so why not stick with the person who already
gives the military top priority? Of course it may not be that simple, and I admit I could be wrong. My opinion stems from what I believe I know about
the country and the people in general, but if my assumptions and beliefs are wrong then it is more likely that my conclusions are also incorrect.
I could definitely see certain individuals within the government wanting to seize power. They want to protect their own necks, and if they feel that
there is too much instability and that they might be next, they may feel forced to take some kind of action. But what does not make any sense to me is
why they would keep Jong-Un around. That seems way too dangerous. The only reason to do so would be to keep the people under control by having their
real leader issue the orders and appear to run the country, but that is precisely my point...if he HAS to be around to keep the people in line, then
how could those perpetrating the coup ever have gotten the support for the act in the first place?
Of course keeping the leader in a puppet position is beneficial, as it does not make the country appear unstable. If they ousted Jong-Un then they
have to fear actions from the west, and maybe even some action from China, who would attempt to stabilize the country in some manner. But Jong-Un
would never have gone along with things unless he was forced, and I just cannot see the other North Korean leaders having the power to force him to do
anything. So I think that if there was a coup, Jong-Un would be out of the picture altogether. He would be either in jail or would have been murdered.
Most likely the latter, as that is the only way for those seizing power to ensure that he doesn't get out and rally the support of the military. So
they would kill him as an insurance policy of sorts, making sure that they wouldn't be killed in the future by Jong-Un under some unforeseen and
unplanned circumstances. Hasn't it been in the news that Jong-Un hasn't been seen in public for a while? Could he not have been eliminated?
If he has been, I feel extremely confident that he would have been poisoned as opposed to anything else. This is the only method that makes any sense.
Those responsible for a coup could not risk having the military or even military factions rising up in defiance because of an obvious killing of their
leader. Therefore they would make it appear an accident, or a natural death from illness of some type. Enlisting the help of a doctor or two would be
much easier than enlisting the support of the entire military and Jong-Un's bodyguards. The last video I saw of him was the one in which he was
limping. I do not know if that could have been a side effect of some type of poisoning or anything, and even though it is unlikely it is still a
So the fact that the talk of a coup is in the air, and from a seemingly reliable source, leads me to believe that "something" is likely going on. But
I just do not believe that Jong-Un is the puppet of any other leaders within the North Korean government. The last thing I wanted to write about is
what actions the west would take if North Korea suddenly destabilized. The US has performed military exercises modelling this very thing, and the
truth of the matter is that it would take far too many US troops and resources to move into North Korea and seize nuclear materials, which would be
the top priority. It seems unfeasible for the most part. However, we could rest assured that China would not step up in defense of North Korea at that
time, but even so it would still be extremely difficult to seize nuclear materials with an outright and conventional military thrust. If it were up to
me to make such a decision, I think that I would rely on JSOC for the actual deep infiltration and extraction or destruction of certain materials, but
I would rely on conventional forces for a feint in the south. This would distract the already disorganized NKorean military, who would be in relative
disarray after such a destabilization, and force them to believe they are going to be invaded. Thus they would move reserve military resources to the
SKorean border after it was obvious that a mobilization was taking place in the south. Deception is always one of the greatest military tactics at
one's disposal, and has been responsible for some of the most important military victories in history. The allied invasion of Normandy comes to mind,
an invasion that likely would not have succeeded had the allies not convinced Hitler and the OKH that the invasion would come at Calais.
on 10/2/14 by JiggyPotamus because: (no reason given)