The Best Flight 370 Scenario So Far - Theory of an actual pilot

www.ethiopianewsforum.com...

This article mentioned by SMOKINGGUN2012 says the jet went to 45,000ft. Above the max ceiling. You might go above the max ceiling in an F-16 but you wouldn't do it in a big Boeing 777, it would stall. Not the actions of a pilot in control I don't think. It also says the data may not be accurate, but if it is could be indication of a struggle in the cockpit and loss of control of the aircraft for a few minutes.

Is it confirmed, though, that the aircraft had already made the left turn, before the pilot's final message...all right, good night.

If so, then that discounts the whole fire thing and that the they turned towards the safest airstrip to land. They had already made the turn, then said that everything was okay?

JimTSpock

www.ethiopianewsforum.com...

This article mentioned by SMOKINGGUN2012 says the jet went to 45,000ft. Above the max ceiling. You might go above the max ceiling in an F-16 but you wouldn't do it in a big Boeing 777, it would stall. Not the actions of a pilot in control I don't think. It also says the data may not be accurate, but if it is could be indication of a struggle in the cockpit and loss of control of the aircraft for a few minutes.

Unlikely the plane would go up in a struggle... there are too many ways the plane could go downwards in a struggle.... To go upwards requires more than just pulling up on the yoke.

Peace,

Korg.

amazing
Is it confirmed, though, that the aircraft had already made the left turn, before the pilot's final message...all right, good night.

If so, then that discounts the whole fire thing and that the they turned towards the safest airstrip to land. They had already made the turn, then said that everything was okay?

Quite!

Well done for spotting this...

We could do well to have an actual timeline drawn don't cha think?

Peace,

Korg.

reply to post by Korg Trinity


The rest of the plan?

Therein lies the mystery.......HOWEVER......thanks to this terrorists now know what to do to attempt this very same thing again.

This location of the world has very laxe security or plane monitoring obviously, the time of flight, the time of action during the flight(the controller hand off), what controls to disable, all of this is now known to potential terrorists.

Was this a test run?????

SMOKINGGUN2012
reply to post by Korg Trinity

 

The rest of the plan?

Therein lies the mystery.......HOWEVER......thanks to this terrorists now know what to do to attempt this very same thing again.

This location of the world has very laxe security or plane monitoring obviously, the time of flight, the time of action during the flight(the controller hand off), what controls to disable, all of this is now known to potential terrorists.

Was this a test run?????

Possibly... but I wonder if this is the first phase of a plan then when are we going to see the plane again.... under what circumstances and heavens forbid with what munitions attached to it...

Peace,

Korg.

I still don't understand how the powers at be have not found this plane yet. Someone is lying. The reason why I am posting this is because I just found this satellite service from Raytheon. www.raytheon.com...
It shows infrared signals from satellites. Are you telling me that on the night of this planes disappearance that an infrared satellite wouldn't pick up a plane on fire in mid flight lol. The powers at be have the satellites and info from that night to easily search this area and find this plane using filters that would pick up the kind of activity this plane would have went through. In my opinion were obviously being lied too.

reply to post by Korg Trinity


The 777 is fly by wire, if the autopilot is off pull the yoke back and it will put the nose up. I don't think the autopilot would go to 45,000? But why would the pilot go to 45,000 on purpose? Doesn't make much sense at all. If I was flying a 777 with passengers on board there's no way I'd go above the max ceiling.

SMOKINGGUN2012
reply to post by Korg Trinity

 

The rest of the plan?

Therein lies the mystery.......HOWEVER......thanks to this terrorists now know what to do to attempt this very same thing again.

This location of the world has very laxe security or plane monitoring obviously, the time of flight, the time of action during the flight(the controller hand off), what controls to disable, all of this is now known to potential terrorists.

Was this a test run?????

Could be, but from now on, I think we'll be tracking these planes better. There are companies like planet labs that just released a fleet of 28 imagining satellites, ADS-B (Automatic Dependent Surveillance Broadcast) will be used more and I think that GPS data to satellite tracking services will immediately start to be used more. I also see some changes in black box technology. So, just my opinion, I think whatever happened or why...the net result will be better tracking of aircraft almost immediately and progressively more so each year.

Was just looking at the 777 autopilot and found this incident.

Past Boeing 777 autopilot problems raised.

In August 2005, a Malaysia Airlines 777 – the same model aircraft that is missing feared crashed – suddenly pitched up “violently” into a 3000-foot climb that almost forced it into an aerodynamic stall.
A flight attendant began praying and another dropped a tray of drinks while pilots fought the autopilot system, which was being corrupted by a software error.
An investigation by regulators determined the aircraft's “air data inertial reference unit” (ADIRU) – a device that sends data to the flight computer and autopilot – malfunctioned.

beforeitsnews.com/alternative/2014/03/past-boeing-777-autopilot-problems-raised-2914748.html

It's interesting but I don't think it explains the whole saga of the mystery jet. What is so strange about this case is that the jet kept on flying for so long with no communication and then disappeared without a trace.

JimTSpock
reply to post by Korg Trinity

 

The 777 is fly by wire, if the autopilot is off pull the yoke back and it will put the nose up. I don't think the autopilot would go to 45,000? But why would the pilot go to 45,000 on purpose? Doesn't make much sense at all. If I was flying a 777 with passengers on board there's no way I'd go above the max ceiling.

Aren't Autopilots just supposed to put the plane on a circular course?

Peace,

Korg.

JohnTheSmith
Either way, the people are probably gone. Having said that, I think most of us would be quite relieved to finally discover that this plane did indeed go down, rather than some of the alternatives.
Not a bad read, although at first I was doubtful.

I don't believe the above at all.
How long does it take to flick a radio switch? 1/10 of a second maybe.
The pilots were so so so busy they could not spare 5 seconds to make a call or just the leave the radio on permanently after flicking a switch.

2 pilots and a engineer and umpteen stewardesses.

All too busy doing what?

reply to post by Korg Trinity


The autopilot in modern airliners is very advanced and can carry out almost all flight operations. Usually the pilots do takeoff and landing and autopilot flys the plane the rest of the time, 90% of the time it's probably on autopilot.

reply to post by xmaddness


Here is the latest update by the pilot.

Good morning all.

I am pleased this thread has gone somewhat viral and produced many useful additional insights for me into this mystery.

I was not going to add anything more myself but new information keeps coming to my attention that only serves to confirm my thinking that we are dealing with a fire/mechanical issue rather than hijack.

Many have written and said why if he had a fire didn't he proceed direct KBR which was closer. My reading would be that KBR is just under 6,000 feet and he would not have had this in his head as a viable safe harbour. Keep in mind this was a heavy and a lot of fuel. If he had fire he would not want to dump fuel. He would head for the long runway. Yes you could probably stuff a 777 into 6,000 feet with everything going your way but it is under the recommended length 7,200 feet I believe and remember this is a ATP with 18,000 hours who would likely go by the book. He turned towards LangKawi and/or Penang.

The real new news is the cargo question. If indeed there was a shipment of lithium batteries in the hold this is a definite line of enquiry. I had a long conversation last night with the reporter for the Christian Science Monitor in Kuala, Peter Ford, and I suggested that he dig deep into the cargo manifest but also try and get more information on the state of the tires on the front landing gear - number of cycles, maintenance records, last pressure check etc. and as many of you know the time honored tradition by the pilot and/or first officer pre-flight walkaround. I suggested there may be security video of all movements in and around the aircraft during the time the aircraft was being serviced and that the pilot or first officer may be on video during their walkaround. Did they stop and take a second look at the nose gear? Any clue there? Was the loading of the lithium batteries on video? Was there an mishap on loading that might have led to leakage?

If indeed there was fire, it was either cargo, avionics or possibly related to a tire overheat.

My thoughts were towards fire from the beginning and the reports by ground witnesses are flowing in. One, in particular, needs careful analysis and that is Mike Mckay the oilfield tech who wrote a detailed email to authorities. He obviously saw something unusual in the night sky and is apparently a reliable person. Other local people made sightings evidently on the north coast.

We now have a good timeline on the Acars, last voice communication and transponder shutdown. It is clear now that Acars was not shut down before the transponder or last call. It just made a transmission at 1:07 and not as expected at 1:37, so it could have gone down along with the transponder at 1:21 either as a forced shutdown by the pulling of breakers or the breakers all blowing at the same time as fire hit the electronics.

It is clear the data bursts went on for a period of time that correlates very well with fuel exhaustion. There is a lot confusion about these databursts and how they could have been taking place if the ACARS was down and other electrics down. I am simply not able to answer how that system functions but it clear it is on a separate electrical system. Most likely if it is communicating via immarsat it is something akin to a satellite phone that dials up and dumps information on a timed basis. It may even be battery powered.

The piggy back theory. While I will not discount this is possible I think this reaches new levels of speculation. I have no idea of the capability of Malaysian radar but perhaps they were painting the other aircraft that proceeded up the straights of Malacca north westwards as MH370 continued unnoticed south westwards. I would not have high confidence in their primary radar beyond very short range. Remember the other plane would have been squawking on a transponder and provided a stranger return. It may simply be co-incidence that their paths crossed.

A very wise mentor of mine always cautioned me to keep an open mind and I continue to do so. All of our theories are essentially speculation and the most important thing is not to come to any definitive conclusions without the concrete evidence.

This may go down in aviation annals as the longest ghost flight of all time. In an age when we have so much technical capability that we can see a person on a street in Kabul using drones piloted from a bunker down near Tampa Florida it is indeed hard not to want immediate fast answers as to what happened here.

We may never know.

Thanks to all of you. Keep the thread alive.

reply to post by Libertygal


It could be all of these OR...THE LEFT TURN BEFORE LAST COMMUNICATION REPORT IS FALSE. Because the authorities want us to believe that a third party/hijackers are manipulating the plane and/or in cahoots with the pilot. They want to establish malice whoever is the "pilot in command" to avoid, as you guys have conjectured, large sums of payouts to victims/passengers with insurance.

Just a thought.

Zaphod58
Isn't it absolutely amazing how right after the plane went missing, it was insisted that it didn't transmit ACARS data (for several days), so we had to wait for the black box.

Now, not only do we know with absolute certainty that the new course was programmed, we know down to the minute WHEN it was programmed. And no one finds that too convenient?

What happened to "don't trust governments/media"? People have bought their story hook line and sinker.

Agree on this one. It's becoming a "three card monte" crisis managment hullabaloo. They admit the plane is missing, toss a few facts during the early hours, retract those statements after a few days then re-inject new information...detailed even but still admitting that they don't know anything yet.

I've never seen or read anything so mishandled before. It's either Malaysian authorities were caught with their pants down and are madly scrambling to save their faces/asses or this is incompetence at it's highest...worthy of a Darwin Awards nomination.

reply to post by xmaddness


Interesting update, thanks. But I notice he didn't address the recent allegation that the flight turned before the goodnight call. The question of whether or not that timing is correct seems to make a huge difference in whether this pilot's theory could be correct.

JimTSpock
Was just looking at the 777 autopilot and found this incident.

Past Boeing 777 autopilot problems raised.

In August 2005, a Malaysia Airlines 777 – the same model aircraft that is missing feared crashed – suddenly pitched up “violently” into a 3000-foot climb that almost forced it into an aerodynamic stall.
A flight attendant began praying and another dropped a tray of drinks while pilots fought the autopilot system, which was being corrupted by a software error.
An investigation by regulators determined the aircraft's “air data inertial reference unit” (ADIRU) – a device that sends data to the flight computer and autopilot – malfunctioned.

beforeitsnews.com/alternative/2014/03/past-boeing-777-autopilot-problems-raised-2914748.html

It's interesting but I don't think it explains the whole saga of the mystery jet. What is so strange about this case is that the jet kept on flying for so long with no communication and then disappeared without a trace.

edit on 19-3-2014 by JimTSpock because: link

Good sir...I believe you are quoting beforeitsnews.

Beforeitsnews?

This has been bothering me for some time now and I know some posters on this thread and on another have acknowledged this as well. If it has already been answered then please forgive me as the threads concerning MH370 before this one are long and hard to recall, save for a few striking facts.

WHY ISN'T ANYONE ADDRESSING THE FIRST OFF COURSE MOVE MH370 MADE? IT'S A 40 DEGREE(?) RIGHT TURN. And it's clearly seen if you check out flightradar24. And if it is indeed the first off course move the plane made, is it fair to assume that at that time it's already in manual control?

reply to post by Korg Trinity


Because the person flying the plane was the autopilot.