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At home, this intervention looks to be one of the most unpopular decisions Putin has ever made. The Kremlin’s own pollster released a survey on Monday that showed 73% of Russians reject it. In phrasing its question posed in early February to 1,600 respondents across the country, the state-funded sociologists at WCIOM were clearly trying to get as much support for the intervention as possible: “Should Russia react to the overthrow of the legally elected authorities in Ukraine?” they asked. Only 15% said yes — hardly a national consensus.
The economic impact on Russia is already staggering. When markets opened on Monday morning, investors got their first chance to react to the Russian intervention in Ukraine over the weekend, and as a result, the key Russian stock indexes tanked by more than 10%. That amounts to almost $60 billion in stock value wiped out in the course of a day, more than Russia spent preparing for last month’s Winter Olympic Games in Sochi. The state-controlled natural-gas monopoly Gazprom, which accounts for roughly a quarter of Russian tax revenue, lost $15 billion in market value in one day — incidentally the same amount of money Russia promised to the teetering regime in Ukraine in December and then revoked in January as the revolution took hold.
The value of the Russian currency meanwhile dropped against the dollar to its lowest point on record, and the Russian central bank spent $10 billion on the foreign-exchange markets trying to prop it up.
Even Russia’s closest allies want no part of this. The oil-rich state of Kazakhstan, the most important member of every regional alliance Russia has going in the former Soviet space, put out a damning statement on Monday, marking the first time its leaders have ever turned against Russia on such a major strategic issue: “Kazakhstan expresses deep concern over the developments in Ukraine,” the Foreign Ministry said. “Kazakhstan calls on all sides to stop the use of force in the resolution of this situation.”
What likely worries Russia’s neighbors most is the statement the Kremlin made on March 2, after Putin spoke on the phone with U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon. “Vladimir Putin noted that in case of any escalation of violence against the Russian-speaking population of the eastern regions of Ukraine and Crimea, Russia would not be able to stay away and would resort to whatever measures are necessary in compliance with international law.” This sets a horrifying precedent for all of Russia’s neighbors.
Russia’s isolation from the West will deepen dramatically. In June, Putin was planning to welcome the leaders of the G-8, a club of Western powers (plus Japan), in the Russian resort city of Sochi. But on Sunday, all of them announced they had halted their preparations for attending the summit in protest at Russia’s intervention in Ukraine. So much for Putin’s hard-fought seat at the table with the leaders of the Western world.
In recent years, one of Russia’s greatest points of contention with the West has been over NATO’s plans to build a missile shield in Europe. Russia has seen this as a major threat to its security, as the shield could wipe out Russia’s ability to launch nuclear missiles at the West. The long-standing nuclear deterrent that has protected Russia from Western attacks for generations — the Cold War doctrine of mutually assured destruction — could thus be negated, Russia’s generals have warned. But after Russia decided to unilaterally invade its neighbor to the west this weekend, any remaining resistance to the missile-shield project would be pushed aside by the renewed security concerns of various NATO members, primarily those in Eastern Europe and the Baltics. Whatever hopes Russia had of forestalling the construction of the missile shield through diplomacy are now most likely lost.
No less worrying for Putin would be the economic sanctions the West is preparing in answer to Russia’s intervention in Ukraine. Depending on their intensity, those could cut off the ability of Russian companies and businessmen in getting Western loans and trading with most of the world’s largest economies.
And what about the upside for Putin? There doesn’t seem to be much of it, at least not compared with the damage he stands to inflict on Russia and himself. But he does look set to accomplish a few things. For one, he demonstrates to the world that his redlines, unlike those of the White House, cannot be crossed.
The initiative Russian opinion polls were conducted on 1-2 February 2014 interviewed 1,600 people in 130 villages in 42 regions of Russia. The statistical error does not exceed 3.4%.
DJW001
reply to post by Rosinitiate
Although I hate to use the Hitler analogy, the Russians are in the position the Germans were when they annexed the Sudetenland. They won territory without firing a shot and were welcomed as liberators. Let's see how the Russian public feels when their boys start dying.
And I can find another thread on this site that will argue the opposite, complete with sources. This appears just as much as propaganda as the other. Swaying the mass opinion one way or another with one hit piece after another.
Putin hasn't made many serious missteps in most of his international dealings and this one appears no different.
Does the OP seriously think Putin has destroyed his "image" or political clout from this? Granted, further escalation could change things but most people see this for what it is.
Ukraine is being manhandled by the west and Russia.
Western nations implemented a coup to oust a pro-Russian leader (albeit a evil and corrupt one) and Russia stood up to the west. I find it laughable to think that Russian citizens would be aghast by this.
I think its difficult for people outside Ukraine to understand the fact that there are parts of Ukraine where Russian is the language and other parts where it is not. I don't see how Putin could have stood by and possibly watched the Russian speaking people loyal to Russia feel they were left alone. What message would that have passed to the other countries on the Russian border that use to be a part of Russia with russian speaking populations loyal to Russia?
He is in a position where he cannot win either way, however loyalty runs deep with Russians and I suspect he will do whatever he can to protect the Russian speakers in the Ukraine until the situation settles there. I know the media will wind this up into a frenzy but there is always a middle way and hopefully the people involved with not panic but parle.
Today people are too well aware of the cost of war and want to get their countries running well and peacefully. We don't just march off to war because some jumpted up politicians demands it. We also know that the banks finance both sides and make money from blood so we aren't so easily fooled by so-called loyalty to one's country anymore. We are still coping with the knowledge of the disloyalty of a country's institutions to the people they administer to.
You can never get a situation where small countries are moulded into bigger ones with everybody agreeing. Look at the UK and the Scottish wanting their sovereignty - hopefully they will take queenie and her brood. Perhaps the Crimea and other Russian areas might feel they would like independence from Ukraine or perhaps at least get a better understanding established. It always seems to take a dictator to run a country made up of different groups of people and perhaps its time to make country's fit the groups that live there if they can''t fit harmoniously together.
LittleByLittle
DJW001
reply to post by Rosinitiate
Although I hate to use the Hitler analogy, the Russians are in the position the Germans were when they annexed the Sudetenland. They won territory without firing a shot and were welcomed as liberators. Let's see how the Russian public feels when their boys start dying.
Well if Bush/Obama/House of Saud is allowed to annex countries to corporations all over middle east then why should there be any issue with Russia doing it. And the stink of three digit agencies are all over the last 10 so called revolutions in the world. Rinse and repeat.
Pot calling the kettle black?
Rosinitiate
Putin hasn't made many serious missteps in most of his international dealings and this one appears no different. He projected himself onto the world stage again commanding everyone's attention. Does the OP seriously think Putin has destroyed his "image" or political clout from this?
Granted, further escalation could change things but most people see this for what it is. Ukraine is being manhandled by the west and Russia. Western nations implemented a coup to oust a pro-Russian leader (albeit a evil and corrupt one) and Russia stood up to the west.
I find it laughable to think that Russian citizens would be aghast by this.