TA-ANALYSIS: Al Qaeda Expert Shocked by Latest bin Laden Tape

A former CIA Al Qaeda analyst is shocked by the chain of events that the latest series of audio and video tape releases by Osama bin Laden, and Ayman Al Zawahri seem to be laying the groundwork for. His belief is that all of the recent releases have been in response to those in the Islamic world who criticized them for the manner in which they executed the attacks of September 11th. Setting the stage for the next large-scale attack.



It has been said before that bin Laden wish to strike America. Now it seems that he is clearing all of the obstacles for such an attack. He would no doubt want to have the support of Islamic Clerics to launch this attack.

To date, no analysts have been able to nail down a target, type of attack, or timeline for such an attack to occur. No clues have been gleaned from the latest messages either. The best evidence of a target has been from the latest audiotape, advocating attacks on Saudi oil facilities.

Related Abovetopsecret.com Discussion Threads
WAR: Bin laden May Be Changing Tactics: Saudi Arabia In The Crosshairs

[edit on 12/21/2004 by phreak_of_nature]

Yes, phreak_of_nature, I agree, the messages have been sent by this method of communication... They use our airwaves to get the message out. However for the most part, I believe they have everything in place, now its a timing element that needs to come into play for them to make the big move. Its now not if, but When, where, and how it will takes place.
The monies that have been spent to secure the Middle East, just one third of that cost was needed to be placed here at home, then I would feel almost better, okay maybe not... I feel its to late to some extent. I hope I'm incorrect in that opinion.

I tend to agree that another attack will happen. My fear is that there is little we can do to stop it, and that we will be too late once there is information.

All the groundwork has been laid, only the go signal is needed.

Like I have said before, Bin Laden and other Islamic clerics have made it clear what they want.... They give us three choices....we convert to Islam, we stop chasing after all terrorist cells and wait for them to attack us, or we fight them.

There is only one way that we will for certain stop the attacks, if the U.S. converts to Islam....you know what? He can kiss my butt, I rather die fighting than being forced to convert to anything.

Originally posted by Muaddib
Like I have said before, Bin Laden and other Islamic clerics have made it clear what they want.... They give us three choices....we convert to Islam, we stop chasing after all terrorist cells and wait for them to attack us, or we fight them.

There is only one way that we will for certain stop the attacks, if the U.S. converts to Islam....you know what? He can kiss my butt, I rather die fighting than being forced to convert to anything.

Or, if you were actually paying attention, for US to stop terrorism against the Muslim people. I don't think he can careless if you convert to Islam or not.

Originally posted by Indigo_Child
Or, if you were actually paying attention, for US to stop terrorism against the Muslim people. I don't think he can careless if you convert to Islam or not.

BS, read again what it said, which is what some Islamic clerics where bashing Bin Laden and the other maniac, Zarqawi about. Let me quote that part again.

"The Prophet's guidance," says Scheuer, "was always, Before you attack someone, warn them very clearly and offer them a chance to convert to Islam."

[edit on 22-12-2004 by Muaddib]

Actually, Osama never said that we needed to convert to islam...
although that would work...

that is what the governments want us to believe...

all he ever said was that they would consider us an enemy while we supported Israel, and meddled with the middle east...
WE have decided that we have to do those things (right or wrong), so it brings us in direct conflict with the islamic extremists (and more of the moderates, every day).
His message (not that we should care) was simple... GET OUT!
On the flip side of the situation is the very unethical reason for it's begining.

The only reason we haven't had these problems from day one of israels birth is the amount of money we have spent to pay off different "groups" within afganistan and the rest of the middle east. When the cia was their buddy, they liked us... then we decided that we shouldn't give them anymore support, just because it might look bad... thugs who didn't get their payoffs is all they are... wrapped in religion...

their "morals" didn't mind taking our money when it was Russia they were fighting. even if we supported Israel thousands of miles away...

It has been said before that bin Laden wish to strike America. Now it seems that he is clearing all of the obstacles for such an attack. He would no doubt want to have the support of Islamic Clerics to launch this attack.

Nonsense. No wonder this guy is FORMER CIA....

Bin Laden has shown NO need for approval or support from Islamic clerics in the past, in committing MANY acts. There is NO reason to believe this has changed. He is a megalomaniac, convinced he is on a crusade and holy mission. In his mind, he believes he is above such approval, as he believes he is getting his direction from a higher source, as do his followers.

The fact that he's wrong is irrelevant.

There have already been attempts. Eventually, another will likely succeed. It's simple statistics. Such "experts" are really laughable at times....

Originally posted by LazarusTheLong
Actually, Osama never said that we needed to convert to islam...
although that would work...

that is what the governments want us to believe...
...................

I didn't say only Bin Laden, but also some Islamic clerics and others like Zarqawi and his associates.

Al-Zarqawi came to this arena [Iraq] only to expel the Americans from the Muslims' country and to establish an Islamic government. This is part of the goal, because if this is not done, how will we be able to bring about coups d'etat in neighboring countries? How can we rescue Jerusalem when we have no base from which to set out? Rescuing Jerusalem and the neighboring countries will come only after the rise of an Islamic state from which the youth will set out to liberate the neighboring areas."



Associate of Abu Mus'ab Al-Zarqawi

Above exceprt can be found at.
Al-Zarqawi Associate: Al-Zarqawi unconnected to al-Qaida, seeks to expand Fighting to entire Region


Now the following is from Osama Bin Laden.

............
"Fight in the path of Allah, you are not charged with the responsibility except for yourself, and urge the believers, lest Allah restrain the might of the rejectors, and Allah is stronger in might and stronger in inflicting punishment." and His words: "And what is it with you that you do not fight in the path of Allah, whilst the weak amongst the men, and the women, and the children who say: our Lord take us out of this town the people of which are oppressive, and make for us from You a protecting friend and make for us from You a succourer", and His words: "So if you meet those who reject, then strike the necks..." We have given an oath to Allah to continue in the struggle as long as we have blood pumping in our veins or a seeing eye, and we beg of Allah to accept and to grant a good ending for us and for all the Muslims.

Excerpted from.
www.islam.org.au...

I have posted in other threads in these same forums other articles where Osama said this, as well as other things. But as you can see above, he is following the example of the prophet Mohammed, and he is offering conversion to Islam or death.

BTW even Bin Laden said in an interview which I have posted here several times, that he and other Muslim fighters were already thinking on ways of how to strike against the west and the US even when we were helping them fight against the Russians.



[edit on 22-12-2004 by Muaddib]

Supposedly, there has been a large attack on the way for some time now.

I am curious though, that if a large attack did happen again in the U.S. if people would yet hold the Bush administration responsible...

sounds like more cheap propaganda to justify the war against muslim countries

the hardline muslim extremists believe that all infidels should convert or die. So, covnerting to islam won't work unles you convert to their version of it.

I'm tired of his tapes and whatnot. I'm tired of fighting an unwinnable war (war on terror, war on poverty, war on drugs etc. waste of time and money).

I wonder what would happen if we took a completely new stance. This new approach would be called the ignore you and your problems approach. someone blows up a bus in Israel? Sorry, we must have missed that. Israel retaliates by blowing up a dozen mosques and then nukes iran for backing the terrorists? really? that happened? we must have been taking a nap. you want us to stop what? no, I'm sorry. Israel can do what they want. we aren't their enemy nor are we their ally. fight them yourself.

what's that? Iraq's reconstituted army just invaded kuwait? damn. if we had kept out troops in the region, none of this would have happened. sorry kuwait. russia just invaded iraq? bummer guys. we are so out of the loop.

al qaeda just destroyed 4 gov't buildings in saudi arabia? sorry guys, they're your problem.

what? you need us to help clean this mess up? can't. currently on vacation. leave a message with my secretary of I don't give a damn and maybe we will get back to you when hell freezes over and we give a rats ass.

Originally posted by Crakeur
the hardline muslim extremists believe that all infidels should convert or die. So, covnerting to islam won't work unles you convert to their version of it.

I'm tired of his tapes and whatnot. I'm tired of fighting an unwinnable war (war on terror, war on poverty, war on drugs etc. waste of time and money).

I wonder what would happen if we took a completely new stance. This new approach would be called the ignore you and your problems approach. someone blows up a bus in Israel? Sorry, we must have missed that. Israel retaliates by blowing up a dozen mosques and then nukes iran for backing the terrorists? really? that happened? we must have been taking a nap. you want us to stop what? no, I'm sorry. Israel can do what they want. we aren't their enemy nor are we their ally. fight them yourself.

what's that? Iraq's reconstituted army just invaded kuwait? damn. if we had kept out troops in the region, none of this would have happened. sorry kuwait. russia just invaded iraq? bummer guys. we are so out of the loop.

al qaeda just destroyed 4 gov't buildings in saudi arabia? sorry guys, they're your problem.

what? you need us to help clean this mess up? can't. currently on vacation. leave a message with my secretary of I don't give a damn and maybe we will get back to you when hell freezes over and we give a rats ass.

I know this is said partially tongue in cheeck, but maybe it's not such a bad idea. Why can't a foreign policy that basically says, "you mind your own business, and we'll mind our own" work?
Allow me to answer my own question. It's too late for it to work. We've been meddling in the affairs of the rest of the world for far too long.
Is their a way that on a go forward basis we could implement something like this? Maybe.
But that doesn't solve the current problem with Osama and Al Qaeda wanting to strike us for meddling in the middle east. It doesn't stop them from wanting to strike back at us for bringing the war to them. It's not over. Right now we can't just drop out.
Maybe someday we can adopt a "go screw yourself, it's not my problem" foreign policy.

Originally posted by Gazrok
Bin Laden has shown NO need for approval or support from Islamic clerics in the past, in committing MANY acts. There is NO reason to believe this has changed. He is a megalomaniac, convinced he is on a crusade and holy mission. In his mind, he believes he is above such approval, as he believes he is getting his direction from a higher source, as do his followers.

If that is the case then why did he ask for religious approval to use Nukes against the US?

The former head of the CIA�s Bin Laden unit says the Qaeda leader has secured religious approval to use a nuclear weapon on Americans
Drudge Report Nov 12, 2004[quote/]

www.thetruthseeker.co.uk/article.asp?ID=2478

phreak, as I see it, if we decided to do everything bin laden and his henchmen wanted (short of mass conversion to islam - this jew ain't giving up bacon for a kook in a long beard) they'd find a new reason to attack us.

I truly believe that if Israel shocked the world and said "take your land. we're moving aside. no more fighting. we quit." the palestinians would move in and want more. If Israel said "here, take this strip of fertile land in the desert that we turned into a success - we've done the hard work, it's plug and play" they would rape the land, turn it back into desert and then find a new area to try and claim as their own.

Muslim extremists have been killing for centuries. It's what they do. Take a ride from the airport in jagjakarta to borabudur and you pass half a dozen cemeteries. Our tour guide described them to us. "this one is where the chinese are buried. the muslims didn't like the competition. this one is where the french are buried. the muslims didn't want them here..etc." When I was there two different muslim sects were killing eachother to the tune of a few hundred a week. They are very good at uniting to fight a common enemy but when there is no common enemy they kill eachother.

I read a really interesting article a while back about how best to deal with islamic fundamentalists. The author posed three possibilities. One was conform to their ways, which he said wouldn't work because they would never accept us as one of them. Another means was by pumping their countries full of money to build schools and infrastructure. this wouldn't work because, as is clearly evident in the nations where they exist, they don't put the money to good use because they don't believe in the technological advances the rest of the world lives with. the third way, which the author reluctantly admitted was the only real way to deal with them was to wipe them off the face of the earth. He wasn't promoting war (this was pre-iraq invasion). He was stating the sad truth that these people (if you can call them that) don't want to live side by side with anyone other than themselves and even then, they will fight with eachother.

they are a sad animal that must constantly be fighting and killing, no matter who the recipient of their aggression might be.

Originally posted by Crakeur
phreak, as I see it, if we decided to do everything bin laden and his henchmen wanted (short of mass conversion to islam - this jew ain't giving up bacon for a kook in a long beard) they'd find a new reason to attack us.

Even if the west pulled out entirely of the middle east they'd still use previous involvment for motive for attack, c.f. 'you mucked up this country, and now everything's gone to poo, so we're going to punish you'. Or, even without a military pressence, there will be a corporate pressence. Do western countries have to make laws prohibiting their public from doing business throgout the middle east? Is coca cola not allowed to trade there so that mecca cola can? Much of the anti-western rhetoric, if you notice, is taken out of communist propaganda, with the arabs replacing the proletariat and the US and Britain replaceing individual capitalists. So they'd still attack over that. And even if you evacuated all military and political influences (also meaing you can't give aid to any groups) and outlawed trade there, then there'd still be cultural influences, movies, music, and such. Any modernity is going to end up being seen as a plot by the satanic west to corrupt virtuous islam, by at least enough people to do something like 911. Heck, they'll be able to do more is they re-establish a caliphate or a pan-arab nationalist state.

I truly believe that if Israel shocked the world and said "take your land. we're moving aside. no more fighting. we quit." the palestinians would move in and want more.

Indeed, the palestinian cause isn't necessarily to have two states. Its to eradicate israel and give it back to the palestinians.

we've done the hard work, it's plug and play" they would rape the land, turn it back into desert and then find a new area to try and claim as their own.

I don't know about that, but they'd certainly not be satisfied. Indeed, they had an independant palestine, but they allied with other arabs and lost it in an agressive war.

Muslim extremists have been killing for centuries. It's what they do.

The extremists, yes, but not muslims as a whole. Every group of people has fanatical extremists. The word 'zealot' is from a group of jewish fanatical extremists, for example.

the third way, which the author reluctantly admitted was the only real way to deal with them was to wipe them off the face of the earth.

Absolutely unnacceptable and completely repugant and disgusting. I am hardly convinced that he 'relucantly' admitted that a muslim holocaust is the proper answer. Muslims have adopted perfectly well to modernity in turkey and egypt or other places. They aren't inherently incapable of modernizing any more than europeans in the past were.

He was stating the sad truth that these people (if you can call them that)

What the hell kind of racist trash is this? Yes, they are people. They're human beings, exactly like you.

don't want to live side by side with anyone other than themselves and even then, they will fight with eachother.

That author obviously doesn't know wtf he's talking about. Muslims haven't had a history any more violent than any other peoples, certainly not more so than any other people's that have expanded that rapidly and controlled that much terrirotry. Genocide is disgust and you are disgusting for even suggesting it, you ugly pig.

they are a sad animal that must constantly be fighting and killing, no matter who the recipient of their aggression might be.

YOu are a sad stupid animal you ignorant moron.

I am not going to take any sides in this, BUT, personal attacks are not to be tolerated. ATSNN is certainly not the place for this. Make your points without the personally directed comments please.

blech. I had a nice well thought out response that got lost thanks to a client call.

Basically, you are misunderstanding a few things. The author didn't say he was advocating a muslim holocaust. On the contrary, he was saying that we are merely going to have to live with the fact that our planet is home to a group of people who believe that killing someone who their religion deems is an infidel is a path to god.

as for the muslim extremists being people, just like me, I will simply say no they are not. people like me don't blow up innocents because they have a different set of beliefs. people like me don't think that everyone who does't live like I live should be dead. people like me don't actually believe that a religion would condone murder. criminally insane isn't accurate enough so I use the term animals. animals in the sense that they have no regard for people other than their own kind and even then, if there is a slight disbelief, a jihad on you.

What do you know about people like you ? So you're not an animal if you fire 3000 cruise missles on a city with mostly elder peoples, childeren and women ? You're not an animal if you drop a many kilo bomb on a city killing peoples you don't even know, including innocent childeren. Peoples that never did anything to you, peoples who just happened to be there at that time. Peoples like abuse their prisoners, make picture's of them, humiliate them... so who are the animals now ? Or did you think that all "peoples like you" are saints ?

It's all easy for you to talk about, you look only at what they're doing, but look at what your country is doing, and maybe you'll understand them better.

I mean what is the difference between country A sending money to country B to kill peoples to protect country A , And country D sending money to peoples in Country A to protect them self ?

There is no difference, both things are the same, have the same outcome, peoples will die, others will get harmed. In reality, country D may not help those peoples because country A has a large army with many dagerous weapons, so country D will get attacked.

You see ? If you only try to place you in the shoe of another, you may understand it. I mean you wouldn't sit and let a foreign country take over your government and resources, foreign troops killing your friends, mother father, girlfriend etc. Hell you won't let that happen will you ?

So why do you think those peoples should let it happen ? There is no balance in the world because there is no other superpower, that's why these things happen. We were more safe in the cold war, because we would be more careful about our actions. A war would killl way to many peoples, now they think, they're the only one so they can win all wars.

WRONG, ! Technology alone is not enought to win battles.

Originally posted by TigeriS
What do you know about people like you ? So you're not an animal if you fire 3000 cruise missles on a city with mostly elder peoples, childeren and women ? You're not an animal if you drop a many kilo bomb on a city killing peoples you don't even know, including innocent childeren. Peoples that never did anything to you, peoples who just happened to be there at that time. Peoples like abuse their prisoners, make picture's of them, humiliate them... so who are the animals now ? Or did you think that all "peoples like you" are saints ?

It's all easy for you to talk about, you look only at what they're doing, but look at what your country is doing, and maybe you'll understand them better.

I mean what is the difference between country A sending money to country B to kill peoples to protect country A , And country D sending money to peoples in Country A to protect them self ?

There is no difference, both things are the same, have the same outcome, peoples will die, others will get harmed. In reality, country D may not help those peoples because country A has a large army with many dagerous weapons, so country D will get attacked.

You see ? If you only try to place you in the shoe of another, you may understand it. I mean you wouldn't sit and let a foreign country take over your government and resources, foreign troops killing your friends, mother father, girlfriend etc. Hell you won't let that happen will you ?

So why do you think those peoples should let it happen ? There is no balance in the world because there is no other superpower, that's why these things happen. We were more safe in the cold war, because we would be more careful about our actions. A war would killl way to many peoples, now they think, they're the only one so they can win all wars.

WRONG, ! Technology alone is not enought to win battles.

Co-Sign