posted on Sep, 10 2013 @ 05:16 PM
Assad needs manpower. Weapons shipments will not change the flow of the conflict. Assad has fomed some mlitias from the costal area that is the
only place fully loyal to him. Most of the Syrian Army has left him and he is not getting anybody to replace them because they chage sides as soon as
they can. He has the Iranians, Hezbollah and Lebanese militias to prop him and slow the rebel advances. The real problem for Assad is the nature of
the rebel force. Sure their are some militias and radical groups inlcluding this linked to Al Quaida but, they are very limited in what they can do.
Bombings, soft targets, logistical raids etc is what they are limited to. They are not the real problem. The real problem is the core of the rebel
forces are the Syrian Army that changes sides. That means the can and do win stand up fights with Assads forces. They are what makes a the rebels a
direct threat instead of just and annoyance. The rebels also have the vast majority of the population behind them and thus plenty of voluteers. The
problem is arming and training them. That is where the West and the US could make a difference. So far nobody outside of the Arab States (who
ironicly are buying Chinese and Russian weapons) is arming the rebels. Europe and the US have both said they were going to but, they have not gotten
around to it yet. If they do so, in particular if they help train them the rebels will be able to wrap things up much faster. However, that would
also mean the radical groups would begin fighting the rebels early before Assad falls and that could get ugly.