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American attack strategy against Falluja

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posted on Nov, 8 2004 @ 03:15 AM
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Well, for the people who are interested in knowing how US thinks they can get rid of the resistance in Falluja, here goes my personal theory on how things will take place.

I presume that the US attack strategy involves a long-term blockade of the city. This will prevent the entry of goods and medicines into the city and will result in a humanitarian disaster that will force all the civilians to evacuate. This phase may take as long as a few months as Iraqis who have quite an experience in war might have stocked enough food and medicine to last for a few months. When those resources eventually dry up and when no more food comes into the city, most civillians will leave the city leaving behind a handful of those who are unable to leave and of course the "guerillas". When that time comes, those handful of civillians (presumably a few thousands people) will be sacrificed and the city which have been almost depopulated will be destroyed by US bombs. This strategy have been previously tested and proven helpful in Israel but had two main problems:

1) Pressure from European and World countries prevented Israel from maintaining long term blockades over target populated regions.
2) Palestinians used tunnels to bring in goods and ammunition into the city and as a possible means for evacuation of the guerillas.

If the guerillas do not want to get destroyed when the situation mentioned in the first paragraph occurs: they must find a way to evacuate the city just before the ultimate attack. Iraq is a desert nation and I don't think that tunnels will be as helpful for guerillas there as in Palestine which is a Mediterranean one. We do not even know if they indeed have tunnels already dug up for this purpose (so I will be glad if someone enlightens me on this detail). It is also possible that European and world nations will abstain pressuring US even if a serious humanitarian situation occurs. A weak condemnation without the threat of serious consequences will be far from deterring US from its decision. Another probability is that the guerillas may disguise themselves among the fleeing population and thus evacuate the city. Let us remember here that unlike Israelis, Americans will tolerate the civillians leaving the city.

Another minor detail is that this new US strategy will be a costly one as we are talking of a "long-term" blockade which will require American warplanes to fly quite a number of sorties. In addition, as 10.000 well trained US soldiers will be deployed for this mission, US may not adequately respond to other developments in other places in Iraq or elsewhere. Finally, it will also be difficult and risky to check the exit of the civillians to prevent guerillas from leaving the city as we are talking of a mass exodus of tens of thousands of people leaving the city and there is a war going on.

In short, US seems to be determined with the re-elected Bush strong in the command and the resistance is facing tough times ahead. What future holds for humanity is still a secret only in the knowledge of God. A nuclear war, perhaps?




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