Doomsday Poll: 87% Risk of Stock Crash by Year-End Worse Plunge than 2008

Just when you thought it was safe to go back into the water it seems the worst may be yet to come , not my prediction but that of Paul B. Farrell of marketwatch.com and a host of experts .

According to the article the 10 predictions point to worse plunge than 2008 with Peter Schiff CEO of Euro Pacific Capital among those predicting Doom for the US economy and so the rest of the western world .

So why predict an “87%” chance of another meltdown in 2013? Because in the real world of statistical probabilities, historical facts and expert opinions danger signals are flashing wild. In mid-2008 we summarized the predictions of 20 experts over several years. Predicted a meltdown in a few years — markets crashed two months later. Fast.

The warnings are again accelerating. And so is the happy talk from Wall Street casino insiders, about rallies, housing recoveries, perpetual cheap money. Don’t listen. The next crash will happen by year-end. Yes, there’s a 13% chance the next Fed chairman will keep printing cheap money into 2014. But on New Years Eve our aging bull will be 4½ years old, well past Bill O’Neill’s “average” 3.75 years for putting this bull out to pasture.

Last year on Fox Business Schiff warned: “We’ve got a much bigger collapse coming.” Then last week: “I am 100% confident the crisis that we’re going to have will be much worse than the one we had in 2008.” His 100% beats our 87%.
www.marketwatch.com...

I'm a market watcher not an expert so don't know whether this is a realistic prospect or just doom porn from those in the know but as always its better to be aware than unaware

reply to post by gortex

Yesterday, I saw an article about the Hindenburg Cluster that states the this long-time predictor of crashes has experienced the second omen in three days.

the Hindenburg Omen signals are starting to cluster (in a confirming manner). First on April 15th, second on Friday, and now third today marks the first such cluster since Bernanke saved the day in August 2010.

Read more about the Hindenburg Omen. Essentially, it is a collection of technical financial analysis triggers that have preceded all major stock market crashes.

Yawn.

Yup, like this happened the other 3,678 times it's been predicted on here in the past 2 years.

Maybe I missed it because the arrival of Nibiru dominated the news cycle.

I like your threads Gortex.
That said, I don't like Peter Schiff.

Peter Schiff's goal in life is misdirection.

He wants you to work really hard paying your 30% income tax,
and listen to him tell you that there's a freedom boogie man
out there that's gonna get you.

This boogie man magically appears
whenever Peter and his 1% buddies are in danger of paying 5% more
than the paltry 15%(maybe) tax he's already paying.
He cares nothing about people's liberty or freedom, only about the
threat of measly 5% tax hike..
And he will say ANYTHING if if helps his case.

reply to post by gortex


The real danger is this:

If the stock market crashes - it is dangerous, because some will see it as an opportunity to buy cheap stock for when it will eventually pick up again. After all, nothing really happens overnight - as it does in the stock market. So, you have to hope that the prediction that the collapse is eminent remains fresh on the mind of investors for a long time to come (until things actually break - since stock market is really a prediction driven environment). Or, you would lose your shirt gambling that you couldn't make your money back if you left it alone.

But, if on the other hand, corporations are not good investments - in that they cannot turn a profit, or government is about to collapse, then a stock market collapse would make sense. If it won't ever recover, or the gains of putting that money in interest bearing accounts is better, it is wise to ditch the market. (or maybe not... your bank runs on stock market profits too).

Mind you, the way the economy leaks money to outside countries and a few vested interests - is it really unreasonable to believe that some day it won't be worthwhile investing any money in the country?

reply to post by AnonymousCitizen


The Hindenburg Omens are not a sign of an impending crash, but every time the market takes a dive.....the Hindenburg came prior to it.

There have been 4 Hindenburg omens over the last 2 months ( i think) and it sure doesn't look good.

I'd be looking at what is happening in Japan and the UK as well. That's where I think the crash will begin.

Impossible.

Three letters why.

PPT

reply to post by KingErik


PPT:
As in "Put the pieces together"? (my guess)

OR:
Percentage Points (financial reports)

OR:
Acronym finder site for PPT

Originally posted by sensibleSenseless
reply to post by KingErik

 

PPT:
As in "Put the pieces together"? (my guess)

OR:
Percentage Points (financial reports)

OR:
Acronym finder site for PPT

edit on 5-6-2013 by sensibleSenseless because: my guess

I liked posterior pelvic tilt.

The market will crash.
When?
No 'little people' know.

Margin debt—that’s the amount of money borrowed to purchase stocks—on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) reached its all-time high in April. Margin debt on the NYSE registered at $384.3 billion as the key stock indices hit new record-highs. (Source: New York Stock Exchange web site, last accessed May 29, 2013.) The highest margin debt ever reached prior to this was in July of 2007, when it stood just above $381.0 billion. At that time, just like today, the key stock indices were near their peaks and “buy now before it’s too late” was the prominent theme of the day

Looking ahead, corporate earnings, which ultimately drive the direction of the key stock indices, don’t look so good. So far, 106 companies in key stock indices like the S&P 500 have provided their corporate earnings outlooks for the second quarter, and more than 80% of them have issued earnings outlooks that are negative! Corporate earnings growth for the second quarter is now projected to be only 1.4%—and the estimate keeps going down! (Source: FactSet, May 28, 2013.)

The bottom line is...

Key stock indices rising on anemic economic growth, poor corporate earnings, and leveraged investors—this is not going to end pleasantly.

www.marketoracle.co.uk...

reply to post by gortex


In real terms what's the outcome of collapse on a large scale? FEMA camps? Billions of stockpiled bullets? Armored checkpoints?
I may be wrong but why would TPTB want to crash the system now?

reply to post by EA006


They don't want to crash the system, but it's inevitable when you prop it up, feed money into it and throw it off of it's normal balance of highs and lows. The only thing they know how to do is try and put off and delay the inevitable, but the inevitable will happen anyway.

I agree that the odds are very high that a stock crash will happen, whether as strong as you predict, but it will happen.

The market situation has not stabilised since 08 crash. The 08 crash brought out the weaknesses in some European countries, which has weakened euro a lot and affected every Eurozone country, especially Italy and France, which are very large economies. The problems are far from over currently.

Although besides all the problems, somehow stocks have been rising and rising, reaching all-time highs. I´m afraid this year another crash will happen.

My guess would be somewhere in the end of June/Mid-July. I would suggest anyone who has a lower-level job have some savings, otherwise this might be tough. And the ones who have quite "unexpendable" role in their company, stabil income and savings, wait a bit and when the crash happens, invest This will make some nice profits on stocks. I know so many people who made very nice profits on stocks after buying these at very low price after the stock market crash in 2008. Apple was good bet last time, buying at 90 dollars a share, selling at 650 in 2012 That is my strategy this year, made quite some research on the potential candidates whom to invest in

Nothing FEMA, authoritan regime will happen yet. No worries about this one. Even when crash happens, people will find a way. Something some people have suggested might only happen with some extreme crash, energy crisis, no food/water etc.. This will not be that strong. Stocks will plummet, but the economic system will survive this one.

POTUS and his gang of thugs know how this year will end, that's why he is going for broke. It's a race against time and these scandals are slowing him down. He needs gun control and to get his health plan in affect so everybody has an assigned social worker and personal IRS agent before the collapse. If the collapse hapens before these things, then we might have a chance, if after.. then we go to work camps.

Originally posted by EA006
reply to post by gortex

 

In real terms what's the outcome of collapse on a large scale? FEMA camps? Billions of stockpiled bullets? Armored checkpoints?
I may be wrong but why would TPTB want to crash the system now?

When the dust settle from this upcoming catastrophe the paper millionaire of Wall St are going to be dust along with the rest of us and only the true 1% are going to come out on top. It'd the derivatives that are going to take everything down IMO. They are leveraged in the multiple trillions. When that house of cards comes down look out.

As for the FEMA camps and billions of bullets, that's just for the following clean up. As small aside to the big pump and dump.

Originally posted by butcherguy

The market will crash.
When?
No 'little people' know.

The 'big people' don't know either.

They are trying to hang on as long as possible to all that paper wealth.

A crash is a perfect opportunity to "never let a crisis go to waste"

Me personally...I'm going to throw some cash at stocks & real estate post crash to ride the rebound & then try to make a timely exit...

History seems to show that usually works

Originally posted by Deetermined
reply to post by EA006

 

They don't want to crash the system, but it's inevitable when you prop it up, feed money into it and throw it off of it's normal balance of highs and lows. The only thing they know how to do is try and put off and delay the inevitable, but the inevitable will happen anyway.

They do want to collapse the system, they want to get rid of the petro dollar and replace it with the new improved version, the carbon dollar.
The carbon based dollar is so much simpler and gives far more power to those who control it and it will be a world wide currency.

So if we look at this news another way -- Gold and Silver are expected to skyrocket!

The stock market imo is a joke, and it wouldn't be the first time it has crashed. If this is worse than 2008, will it be worse than the 1930's?

The experts can all go crap in their hats. It is you and I that make the stock market rise or fall. The economy can be in ruins but the market can look ok, why? Because it is the people's perception of how things are really going that dictates how well the stock market does.

The one thing that the "experts" know, is that if they can start an effective fear storm, then we will cause it all to go down the tubes, to a price where they can pick up the action as cheap as they can get it. Just ignore those idiots and things will be as fine as they can be until a real show stopper pulls rank, and who know's when that will be as well.

My strategy would be buy, make a modest profit and then sell. Put the proceeds in tangible property.