DOW poised to reflect success of election

Bush?
Kerry?
Bidnarik?
Nadar?

I dont think the stock market really cares.

But what the DOW as well as other indicators may be poised to reflect the success of the election being pulled without a hitch.

Dont believe the winner who will claim the market as an indicator of the results.
The market's will just be glad it is even over.

I have watched the markets the last week, some news coincidences, and pre election banter. And the DOW has been pegged to 10,000 and change the whole time. Unwaveringly too it seems. Oil has settled into a more relaxed price of about $50/bbl. The market's seems pensive, tight lipped, and waiting. Unwavering thru news that normally biased it all over the place. And now it waits for a clue to the future.

The DOW Industrials waits at an important psychological level also (10,000 points),...for the election to just be over, where business as usual, can continue.


(This could also be used as an indicator of the individual, institutional, and international investors patiently waiting for tomorrow.) The current price of gold ($430/oz) may also indicate the level of 'hedging' against uncertainties of the future.


Well, tomorrow we will know.

[edit on 1-11-2004 by smirkley]

Originally posted by smirkley
But what the DOW as well as other indicators may be poised to reflect the success of the election being pulled without a hitch.

The key then would be to pull the election off without a hitch. As much as I want to see that happen, I'm afraid it may well be Christmas before a winner is declared.

Here's hoping for a decisive (Bush) win, and a market surge to boot!

Exactly.

Election makes it thru and is decisive?...Market up.
Election has hang ups, glitches, or any delay?.. Market Down.


I think it that cut and dried.

Bush win...continues up


Kerry Win ....Buy Gold as taxes will go up and you cant make anything on stocks becuase the capital gains tax will be the first he raises.

Originally posted by smirkley

Election makes it thru and is decisive?...Market up.

I agree. I think we will se a short term bounce if everything goes well tomorrow.

But what about the longer term? Those higher oil prices have not worked their way into the economy yet.

Oil,... the big unknown with surprise influences at every turn. I dunno. I got a feeling oil is going to settle around 45$/bbl.

But post election,..

Bush - the market will go back into the gear it has been running in the last couple of years.

Kerry - a gradual decline after the immediate rise after the election, due to uncertainties, with a gradual climb back up to the first 90 days, depending of course of policies and cabinet choices made.

Nader & Bidnarik - I think this would shock the markets, but am unable to suggest any possible directions as this result would be something unique to the US in a long time. (probably a downer based on corporate sensitivity)


Gold- The only reason it is at $430 is probably because of the election. The relaxing of oil prices should have relaxed the gold prices, but it didnt. Probably will go down upon successful completion of the election process.


(DISCLAIMER- just my personal opinions based on my observations. I am not suggesting any of this is enough information to make a sound investment decision by, nor that I am of capacity to accuratly observe or analyze the markets)


[edit on 1-11-2004 by smirkley]

Originally posted by Gools
Those higher oil prices have not worked their way into the economy yet.

Actually they are already. Industrial and manufacturing metals and materials are experiencing a very high level of inflation.

But the economy seems to be keeping consumer demand low enough to keep retail prices down.

The margins will tighten eventually you would think. Forcing Something?

(I can think of only one way that allows for the increased costs without lowering consumer demand a whole lot. Forcing FED loosening and Inflation ?) But doesnt that need a recession to work?

Three months prior to the close of Bush's term, after three tax cuts that he touts as necessary to move the economy he has not managed to sustain the indices in an upward direction, and in fact the DJIA is 450 or so points less today than it was at the beginning of the year. His father whose economic policies were the same was riding high on a war also, and the DJIA in the month of October of his election year registered a downward trend with a slim increase in the final days, the end result of that election is now history. the DJIA in the last few days came back from a horrible recent decline, and that may go hand in hand with Kerry closing of the gap.

The moral of the story is, since Bush has been no positive factor in 3.75 years, he certainly won't be for the next 4 ,if re-elected.

Originally posted by smirkley
... (I can think of only one way that allows for the increased costs without lowering consumer demand a whole lot. Forcing FED loosening and Inflation ?) But doesnt that need a recession to work?

Well I'll have to insert my own disclaimer here. I'm no economist and I'm limited to the research I did on the question on debt, inflation and the price of oil in my "depression" thread (see my signature).

So maybe I'm totally off my rocker but even if the fed raises the debt ceiling after the election and starts to print more money that we are soon to hit a wall.