Originally posted by Blue Shift
Originally posted by MysterX
reply to post by theone88
One in a million equates to around 300,000 in our Galaxy alone....
Scaled up to Universal numbers, it's estimated there are between 150 Billion to 200 Billion Galaxies in the Universe...150 - 200 Billion X 300,000
potential civilisations is a very, very, very big number..if my maths are right, it's about 45 Trillion civilisations, at only one per million star
You gotta watch out when you start saying so many civilizations exist, because the more you have, the more difficult it becomes to justify why we
don't have even the tiniest shred of evidence for a single one of them. Quarantine? And 300,000 civilizations are all going to agree on that,
without one of them deciding otherwise?
That many civilizations would be hard to miss, and yet... where are they?
I'm not saying that 300,000 civilisations exist in our Galaxy, i'm saying that would be the approximate number based on the general calculations
quoted by UC Berkely at the start of this thread.
Estimates are based on the numbers given, of around 1 per 1 Million...estimates are there are 300 Billion stars in our Galaxy, most seem to have
planetary systems...hence, based on the numbers in the quote, 300,000 civilisations are estimated statistically to exist at 1 per million. Then scale
that up by the estimated number of Galaxies thought to exist in the Universe.
Nobody is saying that X amount of civilisation DO exist, that would be rediculous considering we don't know with any real degree of accuracy how many
stars exist in our own small, unremarkable Galaxy let alone how many planetary systems there actually are around those stars.
Reading through this site, we're not even 100% sure how many stars are in our SOLAR SYSTEM, 1 or 2...so relax, i'm not saying this is absolutely how
many civilisations are actually out there.
But...of course, any reasonable person would say that there must be a huge number out there, in many different stages of development...there's
members of at least one debating the numbers right now.