The Republican/Right-Wing Loss of the War on Math and Science

So the election results are in, and they're purdee much in line with Nate Silver's modeling of a multiplicity of polls (which can be found at fivethirtyeight.com); his last report on Monday had Obama's chances at 91.6%, and had him ahead in all the swing states except North Carolina. I call it a model because it isn't a prediction, but rather a best-fitting mathematical/statistical model of polling data, the polling data incorporated being taken from reliable polls from reputable polling organizations and consortia.

The election results also repudiate the claims of unskewedpolls.com. Take a look at this link for the proof in the pudding of this fact:

unskewedpolls' swing state polling data

Furthermore, the results belie the claims made by those who say that polls mean nothing. Polls have had a long, and tried and true record. They're not always spot on, but they are generally very good at predicting the vote. If they weren't, politicians and political parties wouldn't waste money on them -- nor would various media outlets.

Polls have been perfected as a social science which makes use of statistics, a branch of math. Given the poll deniers and those claiming the mainstream polls were wrong, and that most of these folks have GOP or right-wing proclivities, I named this thread thusly. It's high time the GOP stops denying facts and reality. This includes many other fields of science, including climate change, biology and environmental studies. It also includes accepting the proven theories of economics, i.e. Keynesian economics and giving up on their primary false god, trickle-down economics. It also means that the GOP congress should accept the reports of its own research agencies in deciding upon governmental policies and legislation.

Seriously, fake math with made-up numbers, based on subjective assumptions, and biological theories based on 2,000+ year-old texts just doesn't cut it in this day and age. Science seems to be good enough for everyone to accept when it comes to their electronic gadgets and latest military hardware, why shouldn't scientific consensuses be accepted in all other fields?

Originally posted by MrInquisitive
It's high time the GOP stops denying facts and reality. This includes many other fields of science, including climate change, biology and environmental studies.

This seems a good spot to remind people of Karl Rove's quote - a dismissal of that absurd idea that there is a reality based on observation.

"That's not the way the world really works anymore,"
"We're an empire now, and when we act, we create our own reality..."


Edit - one random election related citation for the above quote, that most attribute to Rove.

reply to post by MrInquisitive


Well look at the math from 2 months back and then look at how close they were in the end. It really does look like some of the early pollers were scewing number to discourage the gop voters.

Originally posted by MrInquisitive


Polls have been perfected as a social science which makes use of statistics, a branch of math. Given the poll deniers and those claiming the mainstream polls were wrong, and that most of these folks have GOP or right-wing proclivities, I named this thread thusly. It's high time the GOP stops denying facts and reality. This includes many other fields of science, including climate change, biology and environmental studies. It also includes accepting the proven theories of economics, i.e. Keynesian economics and giving up on their primary false god, trickle-down economics. It also means that the GOP congress should accept the reports of its own research agencies in deciding upon governmental policies and legislation.

It means nothing of the sort. This is hacking at its finest.

reply to post by Logarock


The only reports of fraud that i heard where in the favor of Romney..

Originally posted by Logarock
reply to post by MrInquisitive

 

Well look at the math from 2 months back and then look at how close they were in the end. It really does look like some of the early pollers were scewing number to discourage the gop voters.

The poll results from two months ago were a snapshot of public opinion two months ago -- and obviously subject to change. After the first debate and Obama's poor performance, Romney made up some lost yardage. The Benghazi attack likely moved public opinion in the same direction, and then Hurricane Sandy and Christie's praise moved it back the other way. I maintain that if the vote were held at any given point in time, the results would be reflected in the most contemporaneous polls.

Your argument that earlier polls were skewed, and that this was done to discourage GOP voters holds no water. The polling results closed before early voting started, so where was the apparently insurmountable Obama advantage that discouraged Romney voters? Oh yeah, it didn't exist, and you're just making up some lame, specious argument in an attempt to boost up the refuted narrative of the GOP and the right-wing. The polling only started getting better again for Obama after the Hurricane, when early voted had already started, and even then the polling in the swing states showed them all to be very tight races, so there was no discouraging message to Romney supporters/Obama haters; rather, it was clear that every vote would count in these swing states.

In addition, I saw many claims here in ATS that early voting was breaking for Romney, yet I saw no evidence of this for swing states when I looked on-line for news articles on the matter. It was just more "creating their own reality", which Rove boasted of during the Bush II years.

But go ahead, make your claims that earlier polling was skewed to discourage GOP voters and was artfully tweaked until in the end the polling mirrored near perfectly the actual vote. Yes, even FOX news was in on the big conspiracy, with its own poll giving Obama a 5-point lead about a month ago. You naysayers of reality will just keep tailoring your story to fit the latest inconvenient facts; however, the majority of us aren't buying it.

Originally posted by Resurected
reply to post by Logarock

 

The only reports of fraud that i heard where in the favor of Romney..

Well you dont expect liberals do give a wiff about fraud now do you? Oh when their guy is losing sure.

Originally posted by Logarock

Originally posted by MrInquisitive


Polls have been perfected as a social science which makes use of statistics, a branch of math. Given the poll deniers and those claiming the mainstream polls were wrong, and that most of these folks have GOP or right-wing proclivities, I named this thread thusly. It's high time the GOP stops denying facts and reality. This includes many other fields of science, including climate change, biology and environmental studies. It also includes accepting the proven theories of economics, i.e. Keynesian economics and giving up on their primary false god, trickle-down economics. It also means that the GOP congress should accept the reports of its own research agencies in deciding upon governmental policies and legislation.

It means nothing of the sort. This is hacking at its finest.

Oh yeah, massive vote hacking by the Democrats in Ohio, where the Sec. of State is a Republican and the voting machine company is a subsidiary of Bain Capital. Keep your denial and unfounded claims coming; they worked very well for you folks this election cycle. And by all means, double down on craziness, Tea Partiers.



And provide some evidence of vote hacking or fraud, if you're so sure of it, Griz.

reply to post by MrInquisitive


I really didnt say that the polls were fixed.....was simply addressing your question as to why some on the right were running with that. And the storm thing.....as it seemed to sway the polls back away from Mitt.....thats the press friend swaying polls there. The press has already show that they are well able to take a natural disaster and make or break a POTUS. They dress things up just like they want.

Originally posted by MrInquisitive

Originally posted by Logarock

Originally posted by MrInquisitive


Polls have been perfected as a social science which makes use of statistics, a branch of math. Given the poll deniers and those claiming the mainstream polls were wrong, and that most of these folks have GOP or right-wing proclivities, I named this thread thusly. It's high time the GOP stops denying facts and reality. This includes many other fields of science, including climate change, biology and environmental studies. It also includes accepting the proven theories of economics, i.e. Keynesian economics and giving up on their primary false god, trickle-down economics. It also means that the GOP congress should accept the reports of its own research agencies in deciding upon governmental policies and legislation.

It means nothing of the sort. This is hacking at its finest.

Oh yeah, massive vote hacking by the Democrats in Ohio, where the Sec. of State is a Republican and the voting machine company is a subsidiary of Bain Capital. Keep your denial and unfounded claims coming; they worked very well for you folks this election cycle. And by all means, double down on craziness, Tea Partiers.

And provide some evidence of vote hacking or fraud, if you're so sure of it, Griz.

edit on 7-11-2012 by MrInquisitive because: (no reason given)

This is funny. Why would a republican Sec of state, if he could have anything to do with it and "Bain" voting mechine turn an election out for Obama then? This stuff is the stuff of bigfoot and UFOs maddness. Tabloid "truth" with no substance now. Funny voting mechines that were supposed to change every other vote to Mitt by his "bain" operatives.

Keep in mind that science and 'truth' are concepts the importance of which goes far, far, beyond national politics. I think all too often people take a heavily reductionist view of the issues and take statements coming from those in the media at face-value. Do some digging yourself. Questions of knowledge, how we know, what knowledge is, what truth is, have been around since Plato; in the past few hundred years, questions of empiricism and the scientific method have become especially important as well. We shouldn't simply assume that science has all the answers because it is based on empirical observation (which is not without its limits) - what we should do is continue to question our assumptions and keep searching for 'truth'.

Originally posted by duality90
Keep in mind that science and 'truth' are concepts the importance of which goes far, far, beyond national politics. I think all too often people take a heavily reductionist view of the issues and take statements coming from those in the media at face-value.

You are flying to high for this thread pal.

Originally posted by Logarock

This is funny. Why would a republican Sec of state, if he could have anything to do with it and "Bain" voting mechine turn an election out for Obama then? This stuff is the stuff of bigfoot and UFOs maddness. Tabloid "truth" with no substance now. Funny voting mechines that were supposed to change every other vote to Mitt by his "bain" operatives.

Why indeed? I was asking a rhetorical question. From an earlier post of yours, you seemed to be suggesting there could well have been fraud in this election, but that it wouldn't be looked at because liberals only look at fraud when they fear they are victims of it. I was pointing out that in the state most contentiously contested this time around, Ohio, what the situation was regarding who had control of the voting apparatus, so that I doubt fraud stole the election from Romney in the Buck-eye state.

As for who whines and whinges about election fraud, the GOP is every bit as loud and litigious as Democrats. Remember Norm Coleman's 6-8-month court battle and continued court appeals in his loss to Al Franken in 2008? Only after that was all over was Franken seated, thereby denying the Dem's their filibuster-busting 60th seat. And as far as voter fraud goes, it's up to the aggrieved party to make a charge and fight their battle over it; it's not for the other side to say, "yeah, you're right, we'll let you have the election". It's never worked that way, so don't claim the Democrats/liberals have some monopoly on double standards in this arena.

Originally posted by Logarock
reply to post by MrInquisitive

 

I really didnt say that the polls were fixed.....was simply addressing your question as to why some on the right were running with that. And the storm thing.....as it seemed to sway the polls back away from Mitt.....thats the press friend swaying polls there. The press has already show that they are well able to take a natural disaster and make or break a POTUS. They dress things up just like they want.

I will tell you what matters to people. In the last week I was personally contacted by the Obama campaign not once, not twice, not three but four times and the final time being yesterday morning getting in the car to go vote. How many times was I contacted by the Romney campaign? not once. It makes a difference.

Originally posted by MrInquisitive
It also includes accepting the proven theories of economics, i.e. Keynesian economics and giving up on their primary false god, trickle-down economics.

I don't think you know very much about science or economics. Keynesian economics is not a proven or even a provable theory in the scientific sense. We can merely cite real world evidence as supporting or not supporting Keynesian theories. Considering that every criticism of Keynesian economics levied by folks like F.A. Hayek (see my username) and Ludwig von Mises among others have come true time and time again, Keynesian economics is, in my opinion, a seriously flawed economic view. Go read some Hayek and Mises. Learn about what Keynesianism actually implies (that New Jersey is, or at least will be, better off economically following Hurricane Sandy, loss of property and resources be damned) and see it for the weak theory that it actually is. The problem is that the Austrian School of Economics accounts best for the economic phenomena we see, but no one in politics beyond Ron Paul seems to espouse its principles. Most of your Republicans are Chicago-school or neo-classical types, and that's almost as bad as the Keynesians.

Just had to address that pet issue.

Originally posted by KeliOnyx

Originally posted by Logarock
reply to post by MrInquisitive

 

I really didnt say that the polls were fixed.....was simply addressing your question as to why some on the right were running with that. And the storm thing.....as it seemed to sway the polls back away from Mitt.....thats the press friend swaying polls there. The press has already show that they are well able to take a natural disaster and make or break a POTUS. They dress things up just like they want.

I will tell you what matters to people. In the last week I was personally contacted by the Obama campaign not once, not twice, not three but four times and the final time being yesterday morning getting in the car to go vote. How many times was I contacted by the Romney campaign? not once. It makes a difference.

Yet the low turn out numbers by both dems and republicans was odd keeping in mind how important both sides felt this election was. As far as the calling......the other side of something could call me all they wanted and it would do no good.

Originally posted by KeliOnyx

Originally posted by Logarock
reply to post by MrInquisitive

 

I really didnt say that the polls were fixed.....was simply addressing your question as to why some on the right were running with that. And the storm thing.....as it seemed to sway the polls back away from Mitt.....thats the press friend swaying polls there. The press has already show that they are well able to take a natural disaster and make or break a POTUS. They dress things up just like they want.

I will tell you what matters to people. In the last week I was personally contacted by the Obama campaign not once, not twice, not three but four times and the final time being yesterday morning getting in the car to go vote. How many times was I contacted by the Romney campaign? not once. It makes a difference.

Well generally you only get contacted by the party you are affiliated with, which I am guessing is the Democratic party. A poll/survey by the other party might contact you, but generally a direct political pitch is not made by them.