Intrade Prediction Markets: Obama 68.3%, Romney 31.9%

Just going through more election numbers, and thought I would check in on the Intrade prediction markets.

These aren't polls, these aren't projections, these are people betting on who they think will win the election. You buy and sell "stock" on the event you think is going to happen. And they have a history of being extremely accurate.

For the Presidential Election the night before the election:
www.intrade.com...
Obama: 68.3% Chance Of Winning
Romney 31.9% Chance Of Winning

For their Electoral Map:
www.intrade.com...
Obama: 281
Romney: 235

They get this information by using seperate prediction markets for each state. For the Battleground States, here are their results as of right now.

www.intrade.com...
Ohio (Obama):
Obama - 68.9%
Romney - 31.2%

Colorado (Obama):
Obama - 54.8%
Romney - 45.3%

Florida (Romney):
Obama - 29.2%
Romney - 71.8%

Iowa (Obama):
Obama - 69.1%
Romney - 29.5%

Michigan (Obama):
Obama - 86.6%
Romney - 13.5%

Nevada (Obama)
Obama - 80.2%
Romney - 13.2%

New Hampshire (Obama):
Obama - 72.0%
Romney - 28.1%

Virginia (Obama):
Obama - 54.5%
Romney - 45.6%

Wisconsin (Obama):
Obama - 78.1%
Romney - 22.0%

North Carolina (Romney):
Obama - 20.6%
Romney - 79.8%

Pennyslvania (Obama):
Obama - 83.3%
Romney - 16.8%

Minnesota (Obama):
Obama - 90.9%
Romney - 13.5%


They also have prediction markets set up for the Senate races. I won't bore with the details, but here is a summary of the 10 "battleground" senate races.

www.intrade.com...
Dems: Leading in 7 Races (Missouri, Massachusetts, Wisconsin, Virginia, Ohio, Indiana, Connecticut)
Reps: Leading in 3 Races (Arizona, North Dakota, Montana)


Please note, these are continuously updated markets, so the numbers I have above will most likely be slightly different when you visit the webpage. Just some more information to entertain ourselves with until tomorrow night.

Bet against in 80% of these lines and i feel you will win big!!

But only time will tell.......Look like liberal bookies too me

Just play the over/under

Lol, you wanna know how everything posted in that is complete bs? Because everyone that is in the know agrees 100% without a doubt that whoever manages to win this presidency bid will do it by possibly the smallest margin ever recorded. There will be no land slide wins not by a long shot, so anyone selling stories like this are selling unicorns and rainbows.

Originally posted by radpetey
Bet against in 80% of these lines and i feel you will win big!!

But only time will tell.......Look like liberal bookies too me

Just play the over/under

edit on 5-11-2012 by radpetey because: (no reason given)

There are no bookies, there are no odds, there are no favorites or underdogs.

Think of it as the stock market, and you are investing in one of the candidates.

reply to post by Taiyed


I was just having a little fun!!

2nd.

reply to post by SpaDe_


Unless the polls are total propaganda(they are).

We are about to find out.

Originally posted by SpaDe_
Lol, you wanna know how everything posted in that is complete bs? Because everyone that is in the know agrees 100% without a doubt that whoever manages to win this presidency bid will do it by possibly the smallest margin ever recorded. There will be no land slide wins not by a long shot, so anyone selling stories like this are selling unicorns and rainbows.

Well, I guess people aren't familiar with prediction markets.

This isn't a "story", this isn't something someone is trying to "sell".

The percentages are saying that Obama will win that amount of the vote, just that is their chance of winning.

These are real people putting their own money on the line, most the people who play prediction markets don't participate in these based on what they WANT to happen, they do this to make money.

These are really conservative numbers

Sam Wang from Princeton has Obama at 98% chance of winning

reply to post by muse7


Yes, I agree that they are a bit slim.

But it is a different approach altogether, these investors mostly don't care about who really wins, they care about winning.

You will have those putting money down on Romney not because they think he has a better chance of winning, but because the payout will be more and they are going to take the risk on the current underdog.

On election day 2004, after phony exit polls were released, intrade had Kerry up 86 to 14. It doesn't take much money, relative to the campaigns to manipulate numbers.

Nate Silver is going to make a lot of people upset tomorrow.