posted on Oct, 16 2004 @ 01:10 AM
Well this would be the case, unless we assume that there are an infinite number of variables. Now, there might not be. But just suppose, for the sake
of argument, that there were.
If that were the case, no matter what probability we establish for a specific event, there would be enough counter-possibilities to render the true
probability no greater or lower than 50%
Probability only applies so long as you are dealing with a known number of variables. Take computer processors for instance. CPUs use branch
prediction to increase efficiency. We can establish, within the confines of the CPU's pielines, specific probability. However, outside those
confines, are a potentialy infinite number of other variables. No matter what the probability is, if a meteorite hits your PC, it doesn't apply
anymore.
It's the same with weather. We can predict relatively well what the weather will be by looking at the available data. But what if something outside
of the available data enters the equation? If there's a 90% chance of rain for Tuesday, but it stays sunny all day, that probability becomes 0.
So if we assume there an unlimited number of variables in the universe as a whole, then the only way to determine probability is by artificialy (or
necessarily) limiting the scope of varibles to those we can process relatively well, or to those which we are aware of. But the existence of an
unlimited number of possibilities outside of the ones of which we're aware, renders all probability 50% (in my mind, anyway) even though we
don't usualy see that since not all possibilities actualy come to pass.
Now, if the universe is limited in size, and if there are only a finite number of things that ever can happen, then yes, we could conceivably,
eventualy, attain the ability to predict everything that will ever happen.
Now I'm the first to admit I could be completely wrong, because none of knows everything yet lol. But personaly, I believe the number of variables is
unlimited. The reason is because there is no clearly defined minimum "size" of empty space. So just by virtue of that fact, there are an
unlimited/infinite number of possible places that any iota of our universe could be at any given time.
So while it's possible, I think it's also simultaniously impossible. I think we (we meaning human beings) also seem to have a problem
thinking that things like possibility and impossibility, which appear to be mutualy exclusive, may not be in quantum mechanics (I'm not by any means
saying I know anything about physics, I'm just speaking philosophicaly). Just by the very nature of space, there's an inifnite number of possible
"sizes," positions, or "circumferances" for everything. That would indicate to me that, even if only in that case, the number of variables is
unlimited, even if we aren't aware of how yet...if that makes any sense at all lol.
Again, I could be totaly wrong, but that's my thinking.