Russian scientists say chances of Apophis striking Earth in 2029 very slim, page 1


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Topic started on 31-8-2012 @ 09:37 PM by predator0187
Source

Scientists with the Institute of Astronomy of the Russian Academy of Sciences have recalculated the path of a large asteroid, Apophis; the refined data indicates a significantly low likelihood of a hazardous encounter with Earth, the institute’s leading research fellow Viktor Shor said on Wednesday.

The Apophis asteroid is approximately the size of two-and-a-half football fields; its orbit is slightly offset to that of Earth's. Discovered in 2004, astronomers have determined that the asteroid will make a very close flyby in 2029 and might even hit Earth.

The initial calculation for the asteroid Apophis orbit was made using only two sets of observations.

Russian scientists recalculated its path taking into account a subtle effect changing the orbit of the asteroid - the thrust from sunlight absorbed and re-radiated as heat by the asteroid (the so-called Yarkovsky effect).

“Scientists give various orbital determinations for Apophis. But earlier calculations for the orbit did not include the Yarkovsky effect. This effect could strongly deflect the path of the asteroid,” Shor said speaking at the International Aerospace Congress in Moscow.


A little longer than normal quote...but it's all important.

Well, the fact that a large asteroid has 'nil' chance of hitting us is always good...

Let's just hope it doesn't hit the 'keyhole' and comes back and hits us 7 years later.

Although, if we cannot prevent this from happening in the year 2036, maybe we deserve it. That's the universes way of telling us we are not concentrating our intelligent minds on the right things...

I know this had been talked about before, but I wasn't sure if the possibility of it hitting us in 2029 was quite 'nil' at that point, and any news that makes the probability 'nil' is worth sharing in my books.

Any thoughts?

Pred...


reply posted on 1-9-2012 @ 12:13 AM by Arbitrageur
Originally posted by predator0187
Russian scientists recalculated its path taking into account a subtle effect changing the orbit of the asteroid - the thrust from sunlight absorbed and re-radiated as heat by the asteroid (the so-called Yarkovsky effect).

“Scientists give various orbital determinations for Apophis. But earlier calculations for the orbit did not include the Yarkovsky effect. This effect could strongly deflect the path of the asteroid,” Shor said speaking at the International Aerospace Congress in Moscow.

Any thoughts?
I don't think it will hit in 2029 but you have to take these claims about the Yarkovsky effect with a grain of salt. While it may be true that "earlier calculations for the orbit did not include the Yarkovsky effect", it's a difficult effect to calculate so we have reason to be skeptical that the effect they included is an accurate figure for what the real Yarkovsky effect will be:

Yarkovsky effect
For a specific asteroid, it is very hard to predict the exact impact of the Yarkovsky effect on its orbit. This is because its magnitude depends on many variables that are hard to determine from the limited observational information that is available.
Also we can expect periodic recalculations of the orbit as 2029 approaches and the calculations will get more and more accurate over time. By 2028 the calculations should be pretty accurate so that will give us a year to update our wills if they didn't figure the Yarkowsky effect correctly.

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