Keep your eye on sunspot AR1519 I have a bad feeling about it

HI-

So first please move if this is not in the right spot. So i figured I would take one last look at ATS before I head off to bed and I saw a thread that AR1515 finally gave off the X flare that I was thinking it would. Although it looks like it was a glance and its a rather small X flare keep your eye on AR1519 I have a bad feeling about that one. The reason I say that is yesterday that thing was nothing (just a little spot) and if you look at it now its HUGE (that is if AR1519 is the huge spot to the left of the little spot they are calling AR1519). It is just getting ready in the next couple of days to turn right into us and if it has grown this much over the day (I check everyday and that giant spot wasn't even there) i'm pretty sure its going to get much much bigger in the next couple of days right when it is pointed right at us. AR1515 was big but I felt before it would do anything it would turn but this one I feel it will shoot a least 1 larger X flare larger than today, and when it does I have a feeling it will be pointing right at us. Anyhow, don't want to get anyone running around like the sky is going to fall but just be ready that it could cause some damage to satellites and the power grid. Kinda funny but it would probably be around monday or so just when that virus is suppose to cause a bunch of people to lose the internet hehe how strange. Also the X flare today they said it should hit around monday as well. The thing with X flares is the stronger they are the faster the shoot out and the quicker they get to us. Anyhow here is a link to spaceweather so you can check out AR1519

spaceweather.com...

I don't think there was a need to start another thread on this. It is not going to be 'the biggy' anyway. It is turning away from earth and might deliver a glancing blow. No full on doom just yet.

reply to post by starchild10


I'm not talking about AR1515 i'm talking about AR1519 take a look at spaceweather AR1519 wasn't even there this morning when I checked (it was but very small) and now its HUGE it has grown close to the size of AR1515 in ONE day

reply to post by LightSource


Looking at it's progression, I don't think it has grown very much at all...

5th July

6th July

7th July

It appears to be as large now, as it did when it first appeared.

It does harbour energy for X flares though, so you're correct there.

reply to post by Chadwickus


cheer up Chad , *wrysmile*



sunBox

Ar1519 is mild. I believe they will be giving the spot you are talking about its own number. Most likely it will be AR1520. It does look like it will be an active one.

Hi all....!!!!


This is the last image updated......

What a doosy, I've had a bunch of dropped calls today, netflix streaming like a tugboat, and was updating my server last night, takes about 30mins to hour, and well 17 hours later its not done, ( downloads server data from the internet )

The most powerful solar flare of the summer so far erupted from the sun Friday (July 6), the latest in a string of powerful storms this week from our nearest star, space weather experts say.

Source

and this video is nuts Video of latest X flare

I agree completely on the possibility of damage from AR1519. and while it may have appeared small as it rotated around to face us, the Stereo B satellite footage has more definitive information of the evolution of AR1519 www.youtube.com... Between the Stereo satellites and the SDO, we really do have the tools to prepare ourselves for the possibility of CME damage.

This will definitely be one to watch as it turns to face the Earth, and we could see as much or more activity than AR1515. Yesterday we witnessed a C7.7 flare and this morning (7-7-12) an M1.0 flare. I too, find the timing that coincides with the Doomsday Virus to be strangely prophetic. We will see Monday ;o]

The last time Earth was hit but a flare that was large enough to cause major damage(globally) to technology here on earth was in September 1st, 1859. The Solar Storm of 1859 was so massive you could see the aurora all the way down in the Caribbean.

The flare was so massive the it in knocked out the only electronic technology we had at the time, the Telegraph. The Flare knocked out the Telegraph system in Europe and North America, in some case even shocking the telegraph operators. Telegraph pylons threw sparks and telegraph paper spontaneously caught fire. Some telegraph systems appeared to continue to send and receive messages despite having been disconnected from their power supplies. For 3 days the whole telegraph system was down.

Now imagine if a similar event were to happen today, the damage would be catastrophic.

In our day and age civilization is dependent upon electricity. If a major population center is would out power for more than two weeks it begin to collapse. Today with on time delivery supermarkets no longer have back rooms where food is stored, what you see is what they got. And with out the ability to resupply its game over.

So anyhow I was a couple days late and it is 1520 not 1519 it release an X1.4 right at us wich could cause some radio and internet issues in the next couple of days. On a side note it kinda looks like two giant eyes and a mouth down below hehe.

X-FLARE! Big sunspot AR1520 unleashed an X1.4-class solar flare on July 12th at 1653 UT. Because the sunspot was directly facing Earth at the time of the blast, this is a geoeffective event. Stay tuned for updates about possible CMEs and radio blackouts

spaceweather.com...

This is interesting. I wonder what kind of effect it will have on communications and the power grid. I'll keep an eye out on this one. and no i don't think it'll be all doom and gloom, but i do expect a few problems. I'll guess we will just have to wait and see what happens.

reply to post by Dyzan


my one thought is it could cause some power issuue as we are in the summer and with all this high heat people are running tons of AC right now which could cause some issue with the power stations. Also with a direct shot at us could cause more issues with the satellites than normal

Forecaster Comments: A significant event located on the Sun facing Earth took place on July 12. The effects of this event will begin to reach Earth early on the 14th of July GMT. Observers in North America should watch for aurora on the nights of the 14th and 15th local time. Depending on the configuration of the disturbance, auroras may be visible as far south as the middle tier of states. Activity may remain high also on the 16th. Auroras should be visible Southern New Zealand, Tasmania, and of course, Antarctica

Link

I will definitely be outside looking for, i hope i see it.