September: The cruelest month of the cruelest year for Banking Crisis

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posted on Jun, 26 2012 @ 10:36 AM
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Not sure how September 2012 will play out but it certainly seems to make sense based on the chart and the IMF working paper.


The intuition behind this was that crises are the result of imbalances that accumulate over a long time. Politicians have a strong incentive to delay dealing with them until after an election, and often, as was the case with Greece, to actually hide the truth until the polls close. This means imbalances often reach their breaking point right around the election. This has been a busy year for elections: we've already had Russia, France (we're still waiting for the true state of France's fiscal affairs), and Greece, twice. Mexico's is just a few weeks away, and of course, America's fiscal problems come to a (contrived) head mere weeks after November's election. That's also roughly around when China has its version of elections, i.e. the long-orchestrated change in the Communist Party's leadership.


Article LINKY

IMF Paper Linky

Your expert thoughts and opinions would be appreciated.




posted on Jun, 26 2012 @ 10:51 AM
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The next 5 years are going to be mental.
At least the next five years..





 
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