Warning: Flash Flooding in SE England 11th June 2012

Following on from the heavy rain and flooding in West Wales on Thursday and Friday, latest model output suggests up to 70mm - that's more than a month's worth of rain - falling in parts of SE England overnight and through tomorrow. There is a serious risk of flash flooding.



At present London, Surrey, Sussex and west Kent look most likely to be in the firing line, though the rest of the Home Counties are also at risk and it's likely that we won't know exactly where the heaviest and most persistent downpours will occur until the rain arrives.

Whilst totals may not be as high as experienced in Wales last week, there are a great many more people living in this area, and therefore the risk to life and property is much higher.

Worth bearing in mind, especially if commuting into London tomorrow. Expect disruption to your journey.

(Ironically, there's still a hosepipe ban in the London area ..... )

Here's hoping the models are wrong .....

MetO have a yellow warning out at present but this will probably upgrade to an orange, or even red, tomorrow if the currently predicted amounts of rain do indeed occur.


Note: as with all weather forecasts, this is a forecast, not a guarantee. Meteorologists do not yet possess time travel (whatever the public might think). This event may prove less severe. Or it could be even worse ....

reply to post by AndyMayhew


As a Welshman,let me be the first to say I hope this doesn't happen to our neighbours in England.
And I hope this thread doesn't go the way of the welsh floods thread.

Be safe and alert.

This city needs a good clean down, bring on the rain.

Makes me laugh! Every year we have these flash floods, and yet no one saw them coming

Just like how a days worth of snow gridlocks all the motor ways and roads..

We all know come october-feb we need the gritters ready, and yet its not untill there 5 inches of snow blocking everyone the council suddenly splutter into life on the news "OMG! There's snow every where! Its wasn't due for another 2 weeks! We need to import grit now!"

Purrleeasse, my dog could run a better show.

reply to post by Sinny


Sorry, do you have a time machine?


Anyway, worth noting that slow moving, heavy rain, in the SW could also cause problems tonight.

reply to post by Silcone Synapse

your quite right, some of the ignorant comments on the other thread about flooding in Wales is disgusting. i hope your home and local area hasn't been affected, its so sad to see peoples lives completely devastated like this. take care

reply to post by Silcone Synapse


I used to go to Wales a lot as a kid... fantastic people and a beautiful landscape. Gutted to see the recent scenes unfolding there. Hopefully we won’t get it as bad in the SE of England but if we do, i hope we show the same level of community spirit and bravery as our friends in Wales

Worth noting that there is currently some heavy, slow moving, rain across the SW. Some flooding here may also be possible.

I've a nasty feeling that although current model output and forecast don't say it, we could be in for a bad spell of rain overnight and tomorrow in the SW Midlands. Just hope not as bad as July 2007 .....

Well, that should be the end of our drought then!

To be honest, this is the area I live in and this is the first I am hearing of this! I've been on the BBC all day, where's the weather warning? There is a Yellow alert, but it only advises "heavy rain", no actual warning issued about flooding...

reply to post by stumason


It's possibe the rain won't develop as bad as some models suggest - although the same models have failed to predict the development in the SW this afternoon.

If we do get the rain predicted, then localised flooding and disruption looks likely,

BBC forecasts do tend to be 12 hours behind model output

May the fascist monarchy be taken along with the Flood.

reply to post by mkgandhas


I'm not sure Bliar is in the country at the moment, but this is a serious thread about a serious weather event - if you want to rant and rave about something else, feel free to start your own thread.

Latest 12z model output supports the idea of very heavy rain in the SE, especially around London, overnight and tomorrow. Although they still seem to be underestimating current rain in the SW.

Anyway, stay safe!

reply to post by AndyMayhew


Nope no time machine.... Its called rainy season

You know, april showers coming late and all that.... Looks like we really lack common sence in the UK

Originally posted by Sinny
reply to post by AndyMayhew

 

Nope no time machine.... Its called rainy season

You know, april showers coming late and all that.... Looks like we really lack common sence in the UK

edit on 10-6-2012 by Sinny because: (no reason given)

Sorry, I'm lost. Are you saying that you can predict exactly where and when flash floods will occur?

Or are you just saying that during the summer months we always get flash floods somewhere or other? In the same way the US always get tornadoes on the spring. But no-one can predict in advance where or when.

Originally posted by Sinny
reply to post by AndyMayhew

 

Nope no time machine.... Its called rainy season

You know, april showers coming late and all that.... Looks like we really lack common sence in the UK

edit on 10-6-2012 by Sinny because: (no reason given)

Sorry, I'm lost. Are you saying that you can predict exactly where and when flash floods will occur?

Or are you just saying that during the summer months we always get flash floods somewhere or other? In the same way the US always get tornadoes on the spring. But no-one can predict in advance where or when.

I live slap bang in the middle of the amber area. Kids are supposed to going back to school in the morning but the last bout of heavy rain we had closed off the main playground due to flooding and that was only on yellow alert.
Hopefully this won't close the school completely, I want my peace and quiet for a few hours darnit!

Joking aside, it really is hammering down outside at the moment so lets hope it eases off a tad as most of my town is built on clay soil. Not very absorbant....

hope you guys have flood insurance

I have family in Sussex, nice thread, thank you.

Here in interior of British Columbia, weather forecast has said over 190 mm of rain in different warnings in the last week, and we've had about 10mm total, at least where I live, although others have had more.

I wish everyone in the South of England well, and especially those already affected in Wales.

Roads, schools and homes fooded as torrential downpours wreak havoc

Travel warning after roads flood in Chichester area

River Pang expected to flood roads

One rain guage near Bognor Regis had recorded 110mm in the 24 hours to 13z - 81mm since midnight. Several official guages have reported ~60mm. Be interesting to see what the official highest figure ends up at.

Been raining here most of the day too, but mostly just light stuff.

It rained pretty solidly where I live for over 12 hours, started last night and went on well into the afternoon.

That said, it wasn't that heavy, just constant and if you're out in it you get soaked through. Fortunately, I live on a hill