Bush lead gone. Is it over for Bush?

Originally posted by mockan
Bush lost the first debate by any measure.

In the second debate he was angry, belligerent, ignorant,
detached from reality, hysterical, incoherent, and....

something has definitely changed about him.

Although no rational person is going to vote for him,
unfortunately that doesn't mean he won't be elected.

If he is elected people will be getting exactly what they
deserve.

Too bad the rest of us would also be getting exactly
what they deserve.

Lets be real here:people who support GWB WONT CHANGE THEIR VOTE even if GWB goes on TV saying he is the reincarnation of Jimmy Hoffa. Likewise Kerry supporters Will not change their vote by any means, so we have here an escenario of 42 to 44% of the vote going to Either Kerry or Bush and the remaining CRITICAL votes are on the air with those undecided, those who are not sure to vote and mayve less than one percent who can switch due to some hunch or weird info.

So basically we have a 2000 scenario all over again, a horse race (no pun with Kerry intended!) so close that the coverage will be extensive.

Basically what we have here is less than 8% of the vote deciding, 4 years with what we know (good or bad) or 4 more years with the same guy we know, most politicians when in power have what some call "inertia" thats when people do not want change just for the sake of it (NO MATTER HOW GOOD), so they stick to what is known..... thats GWB advantage if he exploits that surelly he will win he has the easy path to reelection....

One thing that really worries me is that most people get the info from TV and the debates, not by reading, surfing for facts etc....so its imposible to know what they will choose ( the undecided) on Nov. 2, barring that something amazing happens in the next 20 days we will be watching TV on nov 2 night till we hear a winner and guess what? 42 to 44% will be pissed.....

As the daughter of a politician, (don't throw rocks at me), I've grown up hearing all sorts of pre-election analysis. Although dad is now deceased and can't give me his bets, I'm sticking with what he taught me. In our household, we always said "You can't call an election till Joey's birthday" (October 25). Which, in reality, means that ANYTHING can happen until the last week and then, it's hard to change the momentum.
Right now, Kerry has the momentum and the lead in the debates. However, Prez Bush and his crew are a sly, crafty, lot and who knows what they might do? Also, we don't know what outside events might occur. I do think, if the election were held today, Kerry would win by a slight lead.
Americans usually only pay attention to debate #1, but this year it is different. There's a heck of a lot riding on the debate in Tempe. My intuition tells me that Kerry is going to take off the gloves on Wednesday and really try to push Bush over the edge.
Anyway, I'm a Phoenix resident, and will be at the Kerry rally watching the debate on big screen t.v. while we wait for Kerry to arrive after the debate. It should be a memorable night.
If I had to bet: I'm going to call this for Kerry, but it's really way too close to call.
joey

Joey, I think you are right. I think it will be Kerry but it may be too early to tell. I dont believe there will be any October surprises or any major scandel coming in at the last minute so IMHO the last debate will seal the deal.

I find it so hard to believe that there are still swing voters out there but I guess there are. I'll be interested to hear if the amount of swing voters decreases after the 3rd debate!

Jemison

Originally posted by Jemison
Did the first debate end any chance of Bush winning the election? He is no longer leading in the polls, according to Newsweek, and considering the first debate was supposed to be his strongest one things aren't looking very good for Bush.

Is it over for Bush?

Jemison

One could only hope it's curtains for BushCo. After that first debate, after Cheney's theater of the absurd and Bush's second shoutfest, I don't know how any reasonable-minded person could possibly support the Bushies. FearlessLeeDar is a complete empty suit. A big ol' puffed up angroid.

According to Zogby Kerry has a 3 point lead on Bush.

According to Washington Post, Bush has a 5 point lead!

www.washingtonpost.com...

I have a feeling that this election is going to be closer than the 2000 election and probably more problematic. I dont think our County could go through another 2000 situation the way we are already so divided.

Jemison

This could be one reason why Martial Law might be implemented.
Bush might declare this to be in effect on Nov. 1, and there will NOT
be an election. He will and can stay president as long as Martial Law
is activated. We shall soon see what unfolds in this giant camel and
donkey parade.
ZOOMER

Polls are crapola...!
Please, feel free to let us know which poll has a greater accuracy historically, k?

---------National Tracking Polls:---------
Zogby (10/11): Kerry 47, Bush 44, Nader 2
WP (10/10): Bush 51, Kerry 46, Nader 1
Rasmussen (10/10): Bush 50, Kerry 46
---------National Polls:---------
GW/Battleground: Bush 49, Kerry 46
Time: Bush 46 Kerry 45, Nader 4
AP/Ipsos: Kerry 50, Bush 46
Marist: Bush 49, Kerry 46, Nader 1
FOX: Bush 47, Kerry 45, Nader 1

Ever played whack-a-mole?

Peeps....the ONLY real and true polling will come November 2, k?



seekerof

Peeps....the ONLY real and true polling will come November 2, k?

That's true!

But it's interesting to see how people are viewing the candidates and changing their minds throughout the campaign process!

Jemison

Zogby's polls are usually the most accurate of all of them.

Many folks, including Rasmussen, would disagree with that assessment.

I don't think this race is going to be as close as many people think. BY 9PM ET most analysts will be straining at the leash to call it, but we will wait for all the polls to close.

Originally posted by kix

Originally posted by mockan
Bush lost the first debate by any measure.

In the second debate he was angry, belligerent, ignorant,
detached from reality, hysterical, incoherent, and....

something has definitely changed about him.

Although no rational person is going to vote for him,
unfortunately that doesn't mean he won't be elected.

If he is elected people will be getting exactly what they
deserve.

Too bad the rest of us would also be getting exactly
what they deserve.

Lets be real here:people who support GWB WONT CHANGE THEIR VOTE even if GWB goes on TV saying he is the reincarnation of Jimmy Hoffa. Likewise Kerry supporters Will not change their vote by any means, so we have here an escenario of 42 to 44% of the vote going to Either Kerry or
(snip)

Statistically valid polling weights polled sample groups
proportional to percentage of group affiliations. Yet polling
where affiliations are quoted shows Republicans are being
polled for example at percentages of 40%, yet their
percentage as part of the population is only 35%. When
such polling equates Bush as even with Kerry, you know the
Republicans are in trouble. The other thing is under the
Electoral system the popular vote does not count, it is how
the electors cast their state votes. The swing states this time
show record voter registration.. of age groups that have not
previously been polled. But other demographic data reveals
the new voters are not pro Bush. Thus the electors, (unless
they are bribed to do otherwise - and that level of fraud
would be difficult to conceal), will support Kerry.

Bush is going to lose the election, and Kerry is going to
win... by a landslide margin, IMO (unless something drastic like
declaring martial law and suspending elections happens).

[edit on 13-10-2004 by mockan]

[edit on 13-10-2004 by mockan]