WHY South Korea Doesn't Respond...

Why does North Korea seem to get away with provocations like last week's rocket test? Jennifer Lind argues that North Korea manages to deter counter-strikes through a bizarre mixture of the ‘madman theory’ (what will the loopy, hard-drinking, megalomaniacal Kim family do next?), regional fear of what would follow a North Korean implosion, and traditional nuclear deterrence.

None of that is wrong, but I think she’s missing the big factor – South Korean domestic politics. Lots of countries and other international actors do crazy stuff; the question is whether the target wants to counterstrike and risk escalation. So it is South Korea ultimately (not the U.S. or Japan) that decides whether or not to hit back. And South Korea doesn’t want to strike back for two reasons. One, South Korean population centers are extremely vulnerable to Northern aggression. Two, South Koreans just don’t care that much about North Korea anymore.

globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com...

NK has stationed something like 10-20k artillery and rockets at the DMZ closest to this massive urban agglomeration in northwest SK. In effect then, half of the SK population is a massive city-hostage to NK, and it is only worsening because of Incheon’s rapid new growth.

In game scenarios of a second Korean war, the first six hours are decisive. NK knows that it will likely lose the war, and that its assets will be quickly eroded by allied air power. That is, in the first few hours, a primary SK-US bombing target will be all those rockets and canon at the DMZ.

Nonetheless, almost everyone thinks that the KPA will be able to get off enough shells and rockets to effectively devastate the Seoul-Gyeonggi-Incheon area. Given that Koreans mostly live in high-rise apartment buildings, some with 60+ stories, the result would be hundreds of World Trade Center collapses.

asiansecurityblog.wordpress.com...


Very well written article(s) that I read on CNN.com this morning and wanted to share. Most of us with little research know that NK is a very unstable and unpredictable country with a large army that is willing to throw everything it has at SK in the event of a full-scale war; however, the politics behind it are more intriquet...

www.ipsnewsasia.net...

America isnt exactly popular with many South Koreans

It is my hope that Korea can unite and expel the Imperial Americans.

www.ipsnewsasia.net...

America isnt exactly popular with many South Koreans

It is my hope that Korea can unite and expel the Imperial Americans.

I'll go with the Mad Man Theory.

I served one year in South Korea with the 2nd Infantry Division up on the DMZ. The time span between conflict warning and "hey, what was that loud explosion" were going to be pretty much negligable.

While I often take the idea that Country A or Country B are our enemies with a grain of salt, in the case of NK that regime is whacked! Wouldn't put anything beyond them.

reply to post by Germanicus


Your article is from 2002, 9 years ago about some single incident. The South Koreans do not have a problem with the USA. We are their 'hammer in waiting' in case the NKs get stupid again.

The real reason is South Korea has way more to lose than North Korea. Besides the military, North Korea has nothing...

Originally posted by chuckk
reply to post by Germanicus

 

Your article is from 2002, 9 years ago about some single incident. The South Koreans do not have a problem with the USA. We are their 'hammer in waiting' in case the NKs get stupid again.

Ha! I didnt even read it. Just posted the first one on search. Its just that I see it all the time

.

www.aljazeera.com...

There you go. Google 'South Korea protests America'. You will find plenty.

South Korea already has enough troubles in trying to reunify with the North, they would have to be mad to go on the rampage over a test. Once reunified, all the tech from the North will get merged with the tech from the South, overall this test does help build Korea's overall space capability.

Tell me what SK has to gain by reuniting with NK? Other than lessening military tensions.
On one side you have abject poverty. 18th century farmers with a belief in their living god.
Money and knowledge would flow on way only.

Can you imagine trying to merge the militaries?

We would have a better time of taking on Mexico as the 51st state.

reply to post by samkent


It happened in Germany once things finally settled down there, why is it not going to happen here? You make it sound that lessening military tensions is a small thing. I am sure there would be many other benefits with freedom of trade, movement and ideas.

As for how the armies go merging, there will be a lot of men ready to stand for a united Korea and a lot of men still caught in the old conflict. There will not be the requirement for such a large army when peace is achieved and tensions reduced. Depending how unified the national government becomes and how objective it can be in reviewing this and other problems, this will establish a large part of how it all plays out.

the Koreas aren't going to fight a war, as with most families they enjoy challenging one another's life decisions. So as who is the best can be determined. Ignoring North Korea is the best response...its the SK version of not feeding an internet troll.

but even more important than my opinion regarding Korean sibling rivalry, war between the two is technically impossible, but in a bid to convince the world that the world war that was promised is still going to occur, hostile forces continue to use whatever resources it has left...which appears to be media (psychological) resources...and make up fairy tales for people to read and be concerned.

reply to post by kwakakev

It happened in Germany once things finally settled down there, why is it not going to happen here? You make it sound that lessening military tensions is a small thing. I am sure there would be many other benefits with freedom of trade, movement and ideas.

East Germany was far from an agraian economy. NK is nothing but a bunch of farmers with a couple copy cat scientists sprinkeled on top.

NK farmers have no money to buy SK goods. Their ideas are based in the 1950's mentality.