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Originally posted by camus154
Just another friendly reminder to any of you wise sages here who want to talk about the significance of weather within your impressive timeframe of 20-30 years.
Let's say your perspective on climate is 30 years. The age of the earth is ~4.5 billion years.
That means your perspective on this issue is ~ 0.0000000067 times that of the "perspective" of the earth itself, and all weather and climate that has ever occurred throughout history.
To put such numbers in better perspective, if the age of the earth were an average human lifespan of 70 years, your "OMG LOOK AT TEH WEIRD WEATHER" perspective of 30 years amounts to....
...about 15 seconds of that 70 year lifespan.
Moral of the story here--it's not wise to talk about what's "normal" when your perspective is 15 seconds of a 70 year time frame.
Originally posted by KingJod
Again, these are records being broken. records some as far back as the 1800's. So, hmmm, lets see, they arent in thier 20'2-30's. So hmmm, like i said in my opening. unless you got proff, just keep quiet. Please and thankyou
Originally posted by camus154
Originally posted by KingJod
Again, these are records being broken. records some as far back as the 1800's. So, hmmm, lets see, they arent in thier 20'2-30's. So hmmm, like i said in my opening. unless you got proff, just keep quiet. Please and thankyou
Sigh. This is what happens when small minds fail to grasp big numbers.
But just for your sake, I'll entertain your logic here. Fine, instead of 30 years, let's go with 300. Better?
Congratulations, you've just increased that 15 seconds to 2.5 minutes. Out of 70 years.
Still not quite within spitting distance to talk about what's normal, but you sure are closer
The age of the earth is ~4.5 billion years.
Originally posted by KingJod
Where's your proof. Seriously, who is small minded then. Do we have proof the earth is that old, and the proof that we do have, can we take it seriously? I mean no one was here 4.5 billions years ago, we haven't found anything that old. So, that in itself is just a guess of how old our planet is.
So, i am going with what we do have and that is that this years weather has been the worst thats ever been recorded.edit on 10-4-2012 by KingJod because: (no reason given)
Originally posted by camus154
Originally posted by KingJod
Where's your proof. Seriously, who is small minded then. Do we have proof the earth is that old, and the proof that we do have, can we take it seriously? I mean no one was here 4.5 billions years ago, we haven't found anything that old. So, that in itself is just a guess of how old our planet is.
ROFL. There's plenty of evidence to suggest the earth's age. But hey, if you want to play the "but science could be wrong" card (gee, no one's ever done that in ATS before!), that's fine too. You're still hopelessly missing the point.
So, i am going with what we do have and that is that this years weather has been the worst thats ever been recorded.edit on 10-4-2012 by KingJod because: (no reason given)
And that's the point. Recorded history going back, what, 200-300 years?
Since apparently you still haven't grasped the sheer scale I was getting at when I put forth the 15 seconds within a 70 year time frame, recorded history is but a drop in the bucket compared to ALL of history. Even if you don't buy the earth being 4.5 billion years old, it doesn't matter. 4.5 isn't a magic number, it's not especially relevant for the point I'm making. Regardless of what number you'd like to use for the age of the earth, recorded history is simply too small of a slice to be used to determine what is and is not "normal".
Originally posted by getreadyalready
reply to post by KingJod
OK, how about 5000 years? We have recorded history at least that old. I could probably safely say 70,000 years, but just for the sake of argument, let's say 5000 years. The amount of time we have had a large network of doppler radars and satellite images is maybe 50 years. So, we have 1% of the data we need to make an accurate guess at cycles in weather patterns.
We just don't have enough information to say anything is "abnormal" when it comes to weather.
Originally posted by KingJod
So, your saying no way shape or form could science be wrong? Really, might as well call science god. Seriously, i am not playing a card, its just educated guess's. Just like aliens, they exsist right? but we have no proof. Even science says they are out there, but again there is no proof. Just like planets they discover, they say it has water, and trees and everything to sustain life and they gather the information from little specs. hmmm, all i am saying is yes, i understand your math and the science behind it, but we are talking about our lifetime, not the past and not the future, you think i care what the weather is like 200 years from now? i will be dead, unless science keeps me alive.
Originally posted by camus154
Originally posted by KingJod
So, your saying no way shape or form could science be wrong? Really, might as well call science god. Seriously, i am not playing a card, its just educated guess's. Just like aliens, they exsist right? but we have no proof. Even science says they are out there, but again there is no proof. Just like planets they discover, they say it has water, and trees and everything to sustain life and they gather the information from little specs. hmmm, all i am saying is yes, i understand your math and the science behind it, but we are talking about our lifetime, not the past and not the future, you think i care what the weather is like 200 years from now? i will be dead, unless science keeps me alive.
No, I'm saying whether science can be wrong isn't the point. The age of the earth isn't the point.
The point is that you are using a very small sample of time and weather patterns to determine what's "normal". You can't possibly arrive at an accurate estimate of that while failing to consider the whole. It's like saying the entire terrain of the earth must be flat and grassy based upon nothing but looking at your own back yard.
Originally posted by KingJod
At one time we did think the world was flat and we had to discoverit wasnt. Right now the weather is out of whack and we are trying to figure out why. We had no proof that the world was round, just like now we have no proof that the weather has been out of whack before. We are discovering it ever since we starting taking records of it, so, as of THIS ERA OF OUR HUMANITY IT IS THE WORST WE HAVE EVER SEEN.
Originally posted by camus154
Originally posted by KingJod
At one time we did think the world was flat and we had to discoverit wasnt. Right now the weather is out of whack and we are trying to figure out why. We had no proof that the world was round, just like now we have no proof that the weather has been out of whack before. We are discovering it ever since we starting taking records of it, so, as of THIS ERA OF OUR HUMANITY IT IS THE WORST WE HAVE EVER SEEN.
Dude, I'm running out of ways of explaining this to you.
You're saying the weather is "out of whack". Well, out of whack with WHAT? What allows you to say that? By what comparison can you say such a thing?
Recorded history. That's it. So you're saying "it's the worst we've ever seen!"
And I say, we haven't seen very much out of all the weather that has ever existed, have we? So while it may be the worst we've ever seen, that doesn't mean it's "out of whack". Just "out of whack" to what we're used to.
So what?
Originally posted by camus154
Originally posted by KingJod
At one time we did think the world was flat and we had to discoverit wasnt. Right now the weather is out of whack and we are trying to figure out why. We had no proof that the world was round, just like now we have no proof that the weather has been out of whack before. We are discovering it ever since we starting taking records of it, so, as of THIS ERA OF OUR HUMANITY IT IS THE WORST WE HAVE EVER SEEN.
Dude, I'm running out of ways of explaining this to you.
You're saying the weather is "out of whack". Well, out of whack with WHAT? What allows you to say that? By what comparison can you say such a thing?
Recorded history. That's it. So you're saying "it's the worst we've ever seen!"
And I say, we haven't seen very much out of all the weather that has ever existed, have we? So while it may be the worst we've ever seen, that doesn't mean it's "out of whack". Just "out of whack" to what we're used to.
So what?
That doesn't mean it's "abnormal". It doesn't mean it's significant. It doesn't necessarily mean squat. Just that we expect everything to be significant within our own tiny perspective because we're small minded and believe everything must be significant if it's significant to US.edit on 10-4-2012 by camus154 because: (no reason given)