Reality Hammer - Iran will have nukes

Originally posted by American Mad Man
There is a difference. Iran has a nuclear reactor - a clear target, above ground that is visable to any country that has spy sats. Thus, all you need to do is destroy the facillity (there is only one) and presto - they can not inrich their material.

Israel could not launch a war against Iraq, whether for poltical or power reasons, hence the targeted strike. The United States can go to war with Iran, and will not merely destroy one complex of buildings when there is a threat of nuclear attack. It will be war.

LOOK AT A MAP!

Infact, Iran has a large american military pressence on the iraqi and afghanistani border, and an alliance with the pakistanis on the other border. The other borders are with CARs, various other 'stans that are controlled be the russians or cooperative with the americans.


The other thing to notice is that the US Central Command, normally in the US, is in Qatar. Its not just there for iraq. Strategically, Iran has 'already' lost, of course that doesn't count for much. The war against their Revolutionary Guard and Regular Army will be breif and pretty meaningless, but the underground post war resistance will be a real problem. THe ohter thing to consider is that it will destabilize waziristan, a lawless region of funamentalist tribesmen inside of pakistan.

Things are going to be quite interesting shortly. When is that US deadline for Iranina cooperation on teh nuke isssu? in January right?


[edit on 7-1-2005 by Nygdan]

It would be pure suicide if Isreal were to make an advance on Iran now or in the next six to eight months. The reason being is that the first component to a strike by Isreal would be with knocking out Irans key air defences. Along with this, they would need substantional help and backing of the U.S. since we are already in the neighborhood. Now Iran knows we are way bogged down in Iraq and would take this situation to mean they would prevail in the short term. Now during this little escapade, Isreal would go to full aleart expecting a strike from Iran which would be quite hard since the numerous cruise missles we sent along with the efforts of the f-117's and the B1B would take out any remaining hardend targets. Basically it is a no win situation if anyone takes out any of Irans Nuck. plants. Best thing it to just vaporize Tehran if we get the chance.

I dont think the U.N or the U.S has any right to decide if another nation develops nuclear weapons or not. Nobody voted the U.S world policeman anyway. It makes no difference if every nation is nuclear, the result will be the same. Imo, a national "Superpower" saying "you cant have wmd is a hypocrit! Non proliferation idea is pointless, and far too late. The horse has bolted long ago. It may have been a bright idea had the U.S and Russia thought of it before the cold war!

[edit on 053131p://14015 by instar]

What that map fails to show is that Iran is quite mountainous in places, a bit like Afghanistan in that repsect just on a larger scale.

Unless something really unexpected happens i find it hard to imagine that the US and her allies would invade Iran within the next 3 years. At the moment i'd rather let them have their nukes, safe in the knowledge that if they were ever to use them we would retalite likewise. To provoke them now would likely cause another conflict in the Middle-East.

What about the role of china, Iran seems vital to them in providing the fuel for their economy and military machine. Is there a remote possibillity they already supplied Iran with a few nukes, that they also unofficially "leaked" this to washington to hope prevent u.s. intervention in Iran?

See, It surprises me, that with the self-proclaimed absolute air-superiority of the americans and the Israelis we haven't seen them take out iranian facillities yet, has Washinton grown soft??? or is it the sji'ites in iraq that worries them or what? why the delay, every wasted minute the iranians are closer towards realising their nuclear goals???



[edit on 8-1-2005 by Countermeasures]

Originally posted by taibunsuu
War is simply a continuation of political intercourse, with the addition of other means.

�Karl von Clausewitz

Iranian declaration of thier intentions to develop Uranium into nuclear fuel is of course their politically correct announcement that they intend to obtain the bomb.

Iran, who has not been part of the West diplomatically or economically for 25 years, would not make this announcement if they felt the diplomatic and strategic conditions were against them.

Now that the US is militarily and politically bogged down in Iraq, they feel they are free to obtain nuclear status. The fact that Israel is calling for UN sanctions against these advances shows that their first recourse - strategic strike - is unavailable.

As shown by the USSR, China, Israel, Britain, Pakistan, and India, the key to self-determination without becoming the proxy of a more powerful state is to prove your country is capable of producing nuclear weapons.

The US invasion of Iraq has considerably changed the balance of power in the Middle East. With the precedent of the Iraq debacle, there is little political support for large-scale military action against Iran domestically, and even less internationally. Iran currently has military options against the United States due to our commitment in the Gulf. Notice that the White House is unable to comment on the possible threats that a nuclear-armed Iran presents, despite their inclusion in President Bush's 'Axis of Evil' trio.

Unless the Iraq situation is stabilized, proving that the US mission has been accomplished and freeing military assets, or unless the US pulls out of Iraq, Iran will likely succeed in their nuclear gambit. Unlike the nuclear development threat presented by the US for Iraq, Iran has the legitamite ability to create usable quantities of fissionable Uranium, and the expertise to assemble atomic weapons. The missile-based delivery method for these weapons is already in their possesion.

If Iran starts processing their nuclear fuel now, the countdown to completion of their bomb is a matter of months. Given the current state of diplomatic and military capabilities, Iran will peacefully obtain nukes.

The politicians who invaded Iraq against the advice of the US military have run out of playtime. Their dreamlike concept of Iraqis dancing in the streets at the sight of the US military in Baghdad and democracy flowing like butter all over the Middle East, followed by quick roundups of Syria and Iran, is about to be smashed open by reality's hammer.

Em...why should Iran not have nukes?

aren't all countries equal?

Originally posted by masterp
aren't all countries equal?

[sarcasem]
you have te rememeber that america/Israel is chosen by GOD
thats why they must stop Iran from getting this kind of detturent[sarcasem]


every country has a right to protect its self
USA/israel just dont want anyone that is against them to have it since most countries would go under their nuclear umbrella

Originally posted by bodrul

Originally posted by masterp
aren't all countries equal?

[sarcasem]
you have te rememeber that america/Israel is chosen by GOD
thats why they must stop Iran from getting this kind of detturent[sarcasem]


every country has a right to protect its self
USA/israel just dont want anyone that is against them to have it since most countries would go under their nuclear umbrella

Indeed. It is that kind of behaviour that has driven anti-americanism at an all-time high.

Personally, I am sad that anyone in power (in this case, USA) does not understand how bad it is to force its policies on others. I apologise for what I am gonna say, but it is no different than 'rape'...