Estimating UFO fleet from crash statistics

(The number I initially used of 16 fatal crashes per million sounds too high. I found another source that says the rate is 1 accident per 16 million hours which sounds more realistic. I redid my estimate accordingly.)

Let's assume temporarily that the UFO crash rate per flight hour is the same as a typical commercial airliner (1 accident per 16 million flight hours).
Fear of Flying

A quick look at this website shows 20 UFO crashes over 70 years which is 0.28 UFO crashes per year.
UFO Crashes

If we divide the UFO crashes per year by the crash rate per flight hour we get 4,480,000 UFO flight hours per year or 12,274 flight hours per day.

This would mean there are about 500 UFOs flying somewhere on Earth at all times.

Of course the crash rate of UFOs is probably overestimated, but the crash rate per hour is probably even more overestimated.

I can honestly say that I have never thought about this. I would assume that they happen far less often than with our crashes.

If ufo's are being shot at then we cant really compare it with airline stats.

I hope I'm still hear when the sky darkens because the suns been blocked by a fifty mile wide ufo thats come to say hello, the look on the non beleivers faces will be something eh?

After redoing the estimate using a more accurate crash rate 500 UFOs in the sky at any one time sounds like a lot to me, but I suppose there is a lot happening on Earth that might interest alien scientists. If the aliens are involved with genetic engineering humans then this 500 UFO estimate seems much more reasonable.

Also with that many UFOs there must be a maintenance facility - maybe under the ocean since UFOs can fly through water as effortlessly as air.

Although not based on such quations, an average or either approximately 30 or exactly zero at a time worldwide in Earth's atmosphere seems to smell more reasonable.

Originally posted by xpoq47
Although not based on such quations, an average or either approximately 30 or exactly zero at a time worldwide in Earth's atmosphere seems to smell more reasonable.

It does seem like 500 UFOs would generate more sightings than we see. If the frequency of crashes was lower than 0.25 per year or if the reliability of the UFOs was lower then the result would come down to a more reasonable number.