Russia's failed Phobos-Grunt space probe heads to Earth Sunday!

In the last 21 hours for the n2yo site, the predicted pass over my location has been moved up five minutes and moved several miles closer (higher)-- eastward.

Therefore, the n2yo.com folks are making periodic updates to the calculated orbit.

I have never seen a vehicle re-entry-- and this could be my chance.

However, while the pass over me is getting closer to being straight up (about 75 degrees above the horizon)-- if it lasts that long---it is also getting earlier (only about fifteen minutes after sunset). Worse, thin clouds are forecast to come into my area this afternoon.

I'm going to need a really bright fireball-- or I'm not going to see anything.

A few minutes ago on twitter...

PhG_Reentry Phobos Grunt
RT @riascience: Roskosmos narrows expected #PhobosGrunt reentry to a single orbit



So its likely to end up in the Pacific.

It's east of Australia now, could be coming down any minute.

PhG_Reentry Phobos Grunt
RT @timmermansr: US STRATCOM claiming #PhobosGrunt already reentered and crashed in Pacific in last few minutes. Unconfirmed by Roscosmos.
29 seconds ago


Edit - The russians are now reporting that it has indeed come down in the Pacific.

January 15, 2012 21:17 Print According to the Russian Space Command, the fragments of the device "Phobos-Grunt", not burned in the dense atmosphere, presumably dropped at 21:45 p in the Pacific Ocean Moscow. On January 15. INTERFAX.RU - Fragments of the vehicle "Phobos-Grunt", not burned in the dense atmosphere, presumably dropped at 21:45 p in the Pacific Ocean, "Interfax-AVN" the official representative of the Press and Information of the Russian Defense Ministry troops Aerospace Defense Colonel Alexei Zolotukhin.

Thats a google translation of the original from here

reply to post by alfa1

Yup, it's down.

­The stray probe plunged into the cold waters of the Pacific Ocean at 17:45 GMT (21:45 Moscow time), says the press service of Russia’s Aerospace Defense Forces in the Defense Ministry.

RT Link