Quake Watch 2012

USGS is reporting the latest as a 5.7. Japan's systems are saying 6.3, and it's at it again...

man this seismograph is going crazy

Originally posted by Hellas
man this seismograph is going crazy

Sure seems it. Didn't people say there was an 8 mag or so that didn't happen? Maybe all these 6s are evening things out. The sounds get my heart going when the alarms go off.

reply to post by JustMike


Hi Mike, it is sort of yes and no. I do have the data but I have to do some work to get the correct area input in terms of lat and lon because the FE geographical regions for this don't work in my opinion and the total FE19 seismic region is too large.

I would say though that if the 9.1 Tohoku-Ok1 quake extended to 650 miles (650 miles = 1000 km) or so then it would have depleted the energy required for another Mag 9 and would have extended way past here towards the Kuril Islands,



BUT this area, just on the edge where the current quakes are, produced a very destructive tsunami in 1896 from a magnitude 7.2 so even if the potential for shaking is not there the destruction potential is. Note however the 7.2 may be in error:

This revised fault model gives a magnitude of Mw=8.0-8.1, much closer to the estimated tsunami magnitude. A magnitude of 8.5 on the moment magnitude scale has also been estimated for this event.

Even after a 9.1 there may be sufficient for this since the 9.1 is 7.9 times stronger than an 8.5 and 44+ times stronger than an 8. It does not take much left over from the 2818 Petajoules of the 9.1 to produce a mag 8.0 at 63 petajoules.

I won't be able to dig up any figures today but I will as soon as I can.


ETA:
This page gives a useful table of rupture lengths, but always remember that there can be multiple ruptures on a fault during a large earthquake.

Originally posted by PuterMan

Good post.

According to the Japan Meteorological Agency there was a M6.8 at 18:14, followed by another M6.8 at 18:21, then there was a M5.9 at 19:55, and then two M5.3 quakes. All of that being at the Sanriku Oki region.

Then it shows a M6.1 down further on the map at Chiba-ken Toho-oki at 21:09, followed by another M6.1 at 21:16.

I figured the doubles would get removed but they haven't.

Thank you Puterman. There are alot of us who trust in your opinion, and you have never had a doomed prediction. (Well except for that Volcano thing :lol Just funning.

Thank you. looking forward to your next post.

reply to post by murkraz


You are not comparing like to like.

The JMO value of 6.1 is either Ml or Mw whereas the 2 others quoted, USGS and EMSC are reporting 5.7 mb. These most probably will be larger on the Mw scale.

Scales matter.

reply to post by PuterMan

Thank you for that. So maybe there is a remote possibility of something fairly major, at least in terms of tsunami effects if not a full-on mega quake event. Hmmm... Worth keeping an eye on, in any case.

Naturally, there are still concerns for the region futher south down towards Tokyo/Yokohama. At least, that is where the Japanese had long expected their next major quake might occur; apparently they still feel that it will have to let go again one day. But as the Tohoku event apparently surprised them, it makes me wonder if they might be surprised yet again.

ETA: I wanted to add this from your post:

Even after a 9.1 there may be sufficient for this since the 9.1 is 7.9 times stronger than an 8.5 and 44+ times stronger than an 8. It does not take much left over from the 2818 Petajoules of the 9.1 to produce a mag 8.0 at 63 petajoules.

This really puts things into perspective. Even a mag 8.0 is a massive quake by world standards, but I think it bears emphasizing just how huge a mag 9 or bigger is in comparison. The amount of energy involved is almost unimaginable, and seeing as quakes are merely a visible symptom of this planet's process of moving energy around, it demonstrates how essential it is to try and evaluate the total energy going into a system before jumping to any conclusions about what may occur.

You have done your best to hammer this point home and even got it through my thick skull , so all I can do is add my voice and say this:

The energy matters, people! It's all about the energy in the system, how and where it's stored, and how, when and why it gets released!

Mike

Originally posted by murkraz

Originally posted by PuterMan

Good post.

According to the Japan Meteorological Agency there was a M6.8 at 18:14, followed by another M6.8 at 18:21, then there was a M5.9 at 19:55, and then two M5.3 quakes. All of that being at the Sanriku Oki region.

Then it shows a M6.1 down further on the map at Chiba-ken Toho-oki at 21:09, followed by another M6.1 at 21:16.

I figured the doubles would get removed but they haven't.

Creep going on heading for Tokyo by any chance anyone?

Rainbows
Jane

reply to post by murkraz


Be careful of interpreting the JMO listing as doubles.

What they do is list changes and when a new report is issued it goes into the list but points to the original page for the earthquake.

As craaaazy as it is... it's really not that craaazy to think Japan is on the verge of another major Quake. Imo 6.8/6.9 is pretty major. Glad there is not a Tsunami .... that's a GOOD THING!

My Brother is over there for the next year (Tokyo, Seol, too)and when he does go home in the next few weeks (for a couple of weeks) he will be going home to San Jose, CA..

I'm a little shakin this morning.. oh.. and its my B-day! Prayin no more big EQ's!!

Originally posted by MamaJ
oh.. and its my B-day! Prayin no more big EQ's!!

*sneaks in to wish MamaJ Happy Birthday*

To stay OT...any thought of creep yet guys?

Rainbows
Jane

reply to post by angelchemuel


I will second Happy Birthday to MamaJ, off topic or not. This is a community not a scientific paper!

As regards the possible 'creep' I don't personally think that the two areas are directly connected and that one will start running down the potential fault lines to the other.

Remember this image?



You can see two distinct subduction zones there, 3 if you count the one on the southern side but Tokyo is likely to be affected by the N/S one rather that the E/W ones I feel.

Originally posted by PuterMan
reply to post by angelchemuel

 

I will second Happy Birthday to MamaJ, off topic or not. This is a community not a scientific paper!

As regards the possible 'creep' I don't personally think that the two areas are directly connected and that one will start running down the potential fault lines to the other.

Remember this image?

You can see two distinct subduction zones there, 3 if you count the one on the southern side but Tokyo is likely to be affected by the N/S one rather that the E/W ones I feel.

Ahhh...Thank you Puters!
Next...couldn't the first 'wave' cause a reaction in the second area? Just curious

Rainbows
Jane

Thanks for the B-day wishes. I was thinking HARD about my brother before I went to bed last night. He left to go live with my dad when I was only 3..he was 9. We have had a very estranged relationship..... I'm really keeping my eye on the EQ's and of course... this site as well off and on today.

Im really glad I have you guys!! xoxox

Jenn

Magnitude mb 5.0
Region HOKKAIDO, JAPAN REGION
Date time 2012-03-14 13:43:13.8 UTC
Location 41.01 N ; 144.73 E
Depth 20 km
Distances 361 km SE Sapporo (pop 1,883,027 ; local time 22:43:13.8 2012-03-14)
221 km S Kushiro (pop 183,612 ; local time 22:43:13.8 2012-03-14)
222 km S Kushiro (pop 22,863 ; local time 22:43:13.8 2012-03-14)

EMSC

reply to post by Hellas


At least they are going down
Rainbows
Jane

news.ca.msn.com... arm-shakes-new-brunswick-village-2


I know these are not big by any means, but, thier location is highly unusual....

Residents in a small southwestern New Brunswick community may continue to feel minor earthquakes for several more days or even weeks, according to a Natural Resources Canada seismologist. McAdam has been hit with four small earthquakes since Saturday in what is known as an “earthquake swarm.” “Certainly we are seeing what we are calling an earthquake swarm,” said John Adams, a seismologist with Natural Resources Canada. “It is a number of earthquakes all of similar and small size all happening in the McAdam area.” The first earthquake happened at 1:40 a.m. on March 10, which had a magnitude of 2.4. Three minutes later, an aftershock with a magnitude of 1.4 was recorded. Two more earthquakes were recorded on Tuesday within roughly 20 minutes of each other. The small quakes had magnitudes of 2.0 and 1.9 respectively. Adams said these small earthquakes could happen for several more days or even weeks. “We are absolutely certain that they are earthquakes that are underground. They are unpredictable. Of course you don’t know when the next one is going to happen,” he said. Earthquake swarms often happen in Ontario and Canada’s North, Adams said, but do not pose risks. These minor quakes are still unsettling for many people who live in the area. Gloria Nason said her house hasn’t sustained any damage and the only noticeable effect was a picture falling from the wall. But she said the events are scary. “We had two very large bursts of something, they are just like great big bangs like an explosion, very eerie, very scary,” she said She said it felt like “a bunch of dynamite going off.” External Links Natural Resources Canada: Seismogram viewer in St. George

reply to post by Jerisa


Hi Jerisa, your linkypoo is busted.

This works
'Earthquake swarm' shakes New Brunswick village

may continue to feel minor earthquakes for several more days or even weeks, according to a Natural Resources Canada seismologist.

ORLY? He can predict earthquakes can he? Or does he know something. Any fracking around here perhaps?

reply to post by PuterMan


Thank you Puterman....I am sooo technically challenged, it is sad really.