posted on Dec, 14 2011 @ 02:30 PM
While it isn't as "rewarding" to think and write about, the greatest probability of the SHTF comes from a global pandemic.
Experts in the field state that it is a matter of when, not if. We are now 38 years removed from the last pandemic and while it is not scientifically
accurate to state that we are "overdue", it is easy to understand why the MSM uses this term because it encapsulates the more complex predictive
models in an easy to understand manner.
Now a global pandemic in and of itself wouldn't necessarily make the SHTF, but it certainly has the highest probability. Consider the H5N1. It has
a lethality rate of 50%. Yes, you read that right. 50% of all people that catch this nasty bug will die. The 1918 pandemic had an infection rate of
30-40% and with our far more connected world, 30-40% would be a very conservative infection rate. This has all of the ingredients for the SHTF.
These are the a priori factors and the more difficult question to answer is the probability of H5N1 mutating so that it makes the leap from animal to
human transmission to human to human transmission. If this happens (and the influenza virus is one of the most aggressive at mutating rapidly) then
all bets are off as to how bad it could get. What worries me is that H5N1 is very prevalent in pigs and China have increased their pig population by
several orders of magnitude in the last couple of decades. This is a literal breeding ground for H5N1 to mutate into our nightmare.
Economic collapse, WWIII, etc. appeals to our need to be able to "do something" and a global pandemic is far harder to "fight against", but my
personal opinion is that this is the one to really worry about. I don't want to seem to dismiss the others as being impossible, just less likely
which was the OP question.
As for preparations. In the event we are faced with this situation, the best defense is to quarantine yourself with NO contact with the outside
world. No going to the grocery store, no going to work, no going to the gas station, etc. This also means that you must be prepared to deal with
utilities being disrupted, because it is a very real possibility that key personnel will become ill or worse.