How to determine where the next war will start

If someone wants to know where the next war is to be organised, what should he/her research?
The answer is a mondaine secret: just follow the orders of prosthetic limbs and everything related.

I was told this years ago by a friend that could know.
Most arms-trading is hard to trace, especially in small countries and with warlords.

No matter my source or this small thesis, what would you do?

I know it is a bit creepy and sinister, so is our world sometimes.

You can't predict a war unless you can hack in to government documents and information. Politics is so scripted it's unbelievable. Just sit back and enjoy the fireworks.

Originally posted by Pokoia
The answer is a mondaine secret: just follow the orders of prosthetic limbs and everything related.

This the real method that is used by secret services around the World for at least 40 years now.
Sad that no one wants to think about it here on ATS

I can see your logic, trace who's ordering alot of prosthetic limbs as there is about to be a war and the casualties of that war will require alot of prosthetic limbs from losing arms, legs and so on, right?

That, and whoever is withdrawing all their assets from overseas accounts!

reply to post by Gibonz


Yes tracing finance mutations would be nice.
There is a problem however, illegal arms trade and finance is often cloaked, layered and frequently rerouted.
Medical supplies most of the times comes with normal shipping papers.

Population increases before wars.

I don't remember where I heard it, but before major wars start (around 20 years), birth rates go up, and more males are born.

Now, I don't know if it is true or not, but it is something that could be looked into I suppose. I would suspect that it is semi-true, reason being the sub-concious picks up on hostilities LONG before the concious mind sees it happening.

Also, you could just look into who is buying massive amounts of boots.....gotta have boots in a war.

One potential technique could be to look at what the current and short-medium-long-term demands of a society are and will be, and try to determine if their is appropriate and feasible supply out there to meet that growing demand.

Whatever that demand is; i.e. oil, water, strategic real estate in relation to other global enemies, perceived need to protect currency or other national monetary interests, maybe grains, other plant foods in future too when the bees all die... the list goes on with many possible examples, but the point is;

what do we need as a society to not only survive in the coming years, but to thrive, and where and how do we get it before or when we need it...

That's where you look. When you identify a societies future needs, and then figure out who has that potential supply, you may be able to surmise a future relationship concern between the two parties, depending on current relationships, and strategic positioning on the globe.

Originally posted by Darkblade71
Population increases before wars.

I don't remember where I heard it, but before major wars start (around 20 years), birth rates go up, and more males are born.

Now, I don't know if it is true or not, but it is something that could be looked into I suppose. I would suspect that it is semi-true, reason being the sub-concious picks up on hostilities LONG before the concious mind sees it happening.

Also, you could just look into who is buying massive amounts of boots.....gotta have boots in a war.

I thought that the general idea was that, after a war, the birthrate for boys went up.
The theory behind this was that, when the soldiers came home, they had missed their girlfriends/wives for so long, they were trying to make up for that lost period.
As a consequence, there was a bigger chance, for successful impregnation early after ovulation.
The shorter the period after ovulation, the bigger the chance for a boy to be their next child.
I have no idea if this theory still is supported.

Concerning the boots, you a right of course, that goes for all non military stuff you need in a war.
It is just the case that prosthetics and such stand out more.

reply to post by IronDogg


You are looking for a means to make a better life possible, even on the long run, for a society.
This is good of course.

The question was : How to detect the preparations for war in a certain area.