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How long do countries have until their populations disappear?
As The Economist reports this week, many women in the richer parts of Asia have gone on “marriage strike”, preferring the single life to the marital yoke. That is one reason why their fertility rates have fallen. And they are not alone. In 83 countries and territories around the world, according to the United Nations, women will not have enough daughters to replace themselves, unless fertility rates rise. In Hong Kong, for example, a cohort of 1,000 women would be expected to give birth to just 547 daughters, at today’s fertility rates. (That gives Hong Kong a “net reproduction rate” of just 0.547, in the language of demographers.) If nothing changed, those 547 daughters would be succeeded by just 299 daughters of their own, and so on. At that rate, according to some back-of-the-envelope calculations by The Economist, it would take about 25 generations for Hong Kong’s female population to shrink from 3.75m to just one. Given that Hong Kong’s average age of childbearing is 31.4 years, it could expect to give birth to its last woman in the year 2798. (That is some time after its neighbour, Macau, which has a higher reproduction rate, but a much smaller population.) By the same unflinching logic, Japan, Germany, Russia, Italy and Spain will not see out the next millennium. Even China, which has a recorded history stretching back at least 3,700 years, has only about 1,500 years left—if present trends continued unbroken.
Originally posted by AlexIR
reply to post by Cobaltic1978
Well that might be, but it doesn't take a genious to see that birth rate has decreased a lot over the past 50 years. I mean 1.3 children per family, taking into acount how many children from those will have children themselves and how many die before they even consider having a kid. Its sad .... Except for New Mexico ... as we learned from above
Seriously, there are a lot of countries that lose population just check for yourself ... and its not due to emigration ...
Total fertility rate
Info displayed for all countries in alpha order. This entry gives a figure for the average number of children that would be born per woman if all women lived to the end of their childbearing years and bore children according to a given fertility rate at each age. The total fertility rate (TFR) is a more direct measure of the level of fertility than the crude birth rate, since it refers to births per woman. This indicator shows the potential for population change in the country. A rate of two children per woman is considered the replacement rate for a population, resulting in relative stability in terms of total numbers. Rates above two children indicate populations growing in size and whose median age is declining. Higher rates may also indicate difficulties for families, in some situations, to feed and educate their children and for women to enter the labor force. Rates below two children indicate populations decreasing in size and growing older. Global fertility rates are in general decline and this trend is most pronounced in industrialized countries, especially Western Europe, where populations are projected to decline dramatically over the next 50 years.
Years TFR Years TFR Years TFR
1950–1955 4.95 2000–2005 2.62 2050–2055 2.15
1955–1960 4.89 2005–2010 2.52 2055–2060 2.12
1960–1965 4.91 2010–2015 2.45 2060–2065 2.11
1965–1970 4.85 2015–2020 2.39 2065–2070 2.09
1970–1975 4.45 2020–2025 2.33 2070–2075 2.08
1975–1980 3.84 2025–2030 2.29 2075–2080 2.06
1980–1985 3.59 2030–2035 2.25 2080–2085 2.05
1985–1990 3.39 2035–2040 2.22 2085–2090 2.04
1990–1995 3.04 2040–2045 2.19 2090–2095 2.04
1995–2000 2.79 2045–2050 2.17 2095–2100 2.03
World historical and predicted populations (in millions)
1500 1600 1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 1999 2008 2050 2150
World 458 580 682 791 978 1,262 1,650 2,521 5,978 6,707 8,909 9,746