Probability of ET Life Arbitrarily Small, Say Astrobiologists

reply to post by Zeer0


Thank you for that.

I believe we are all friends on this board and healthy discussion is important to expanding our individual horizons.

reply to post by Drunkenparrot

Certain by no means.

Life on Earth exists.

Therefore

Life exists everywhere( Or in many Star Systems probably most) in the Universe.

I will attest to this.

Especially with the new data from Kepler

Showing momentous

New Estimate for Alien Earths: 2 Billion in Our Galaxy Alone- And This is the most Conservative Estimate with the New Kepler Telescope Data Realeses.

Originally posted by game over man
reply to post by Drunkenparrot

 

60 years of searching in a nearly 15 billion year old Universe is barely scratching the surface.

Remember, that can work both ways.

60 years of searching across 15 billion light years and so far nothing.

I think what we know at this point is pretty exciting! All the possibilities of exotic life in our Solar System and the discovery of Exo-Planets is practically sci-fi!!

The theories on space travel, quantum physics and how we "observe" the Universe is very fascinating too!

I agree, I love the possibilities science has brought to us. Unfortunately, its intellectually dishonest to cherry pick through the scientific process for what we agree with.

So far science says there is absolutely no empirical evidence even remotely hinting at the existence of extraterrestrial life.

Regarding the cover-up angle, I don't believe the government is capable of or that it is possible that a discovery of that magnitude could be suppressed from public knowledge outside of fiction.

Originally posted by TheUniverse
reply to post by Drunkenparrot

 

Certain by no means.

Life on Earth exists.

Therefore

Life exists everywhere( Or in many Star Systems probably most) in the Universe.

Actually that is a logical fallacy.

P=>Q or if it rains the ground gets wet. Q however does not imply P or, put simply, because the ground is wet it is not necessarily raining, the sprinklers may be on.

Easy stuff.

Edit: Regarding ...

Especially with the new data from Kepler

Showing momentous

New Estimate for Alien Earths: 2 Billion in Our Galaxy Alone- And This is the most Conservative Estimate with the New Kepler Telescope Data Realeses.

Again, fantastic speculation we all hope is true. However, there is still not a shred of supporting evidence, it is all supposition until some tangible, reproducible evidence is found.

Was Carl Sagan a blithering idiot then?

There's nothing inherently wrong with the drake equation. It's very straightforward and nearly airtight in terms of form. The problem is in the accuracy of the numbers inserted into it.

I will say this though -- where you might expect small errors in any one part to seriously throw off the whole result, I find that the opposite may happen. I personally filled in my own educated guesses for all of the parts of the drake equation. My result was very close to Sagan's result, even though some of our guesses on individual parts were pretty far off. An overestimation in one part cancels out an underestimation in another part, since they multiply.

life... to live... hhhmmm??? because we have blood pumping in our veins are we TRULY anymore alive then the dirt we walk on? or is this simply a figurative theater? Before we go searching... wandering... through the cosmos for life... why not first find it in ourselves?

Originally posted by Drunkenparrot

Remember, that can work both ways.

60 years of searching across 15 billion light years and so far nothing.

I agree, I love the possibilities science has brought to us. Unfortunately, its intellectually dishonest to cherry pick through the scientific process for what we agree with.

So far science says there is absolutely no empirical evidence even remotely hinting at the existence of extraterrestrial life.

Regarding the cover-up angle, I don't believe the government is capable of or that it is possible that a discovery of that magnitude could be suppressed from public knowledge outside of fiction.

edit on 31-7-2011 by Drunkenparrot because: Syntax

What?? Didn't the article state most of the science community adopts the theory of the Universe to be teeming with life? So what are you talking about?

The government is not capable of a cover up? Are you kidding? Watergate?

Also we've discovered nothing in the past 60 years? How about the parallels between our Ancient Astronomy and Modern Astronomy? We haven't gained anything from space travel? Just do a google search of Nasa spin-offs, or space technology that has greatly benefited society.

reply to post by Observer99


Carl Sagan was unquestionably a great mind of science.

Drake equation aside, have you read Dr. Sagan's book The Demon-Haunted World?

The Demon-Haunted World: Science as a Candle in the Dark is a book by astrophysicist Carl Sagan, which was first published in 1995.

The book is intended to explain the scientific method to laypeople, and to encourage people to learn critical or skeptical thinking. It explains methods to help distinguish between ideas that are considered valid science, and ideas that can be considered pseudoscience. Sagan states that when new ideas are offered for consideration, they should be tested by means of skeptical thinking, and should stand up to rigorous questioning.

In my own opinion, anyone remotely serious about UFOlogy and the search for E.T. should read this book and give Dr. Sagan's words serious consideration when pondering the question.

It would surely change the tone of many here on ATS...

Originally posted by game over man

Originally posted by Drunkenparrot

Originally posted by game over man
reply to post by Drunkenparrot

 

60 years of searching in a nearly 15 billion year old Universe is barely scratching the surface.

Remember, that can work both ways.

60 years of searching across 15 billion light years and so far nothing.

I think what we know at this point is pretty exciting! All the possibilities of exotic life in our Solar System and the discovery of Exo-Planets is practically sci-fi!!

The theories on space travel, quantum physics and how we "observe" the Universe is very fascinating too!

I agree, I love the possibilities science has brought to us. Unfortunately, its intellectually dishonest to cherry pick through the scientific process for what we agree with.

So far science says there is absolutely no empirical evidence even remotely hinting at the existence of extraterrestrial life.

Regarding the cover-up angle, I don't believe the government is capable of or that it is possible that a discovery of that magnitude could be suppressed from public knowledge outside of fiction.

edit on 31-7-2011 by Drunkenparrot because: Syntax

What?? (see bold) Didn't the article state that most science adopt the theory that the Universe is teeming with life? So what are you talking about?

The government is not capable of a cover up? Are you kidding? Watergate?

Also we've discovered nothing in the past 60 years? How about the parallels between our Ancient Astronomy and Modern Astronomy?

Yes, Watergate is a perfect example of the governments ineptitude to keep even the biggest, most embarrassing secrets so I believe your point is rendered moot.

Again, because it is possible does not mean it exists.

Show me something tangible beyond speculation and hearsay to the contrary and I will gladly agree..?

reply to post by Drunkenparrot


Agree to what?

First you believe we are the only lifeforms in the entire Universe.

Second you think if an unknown being to Earth were to arrive suddenly that it wouldn't stop you or anyone else in their happy-go-lucky life.

Third. You also think that random ordinary citizens or even amature astronomers would be the main people to observe visiting ET. Nobody else would detect them first.

Fourth. You also believe that the US Government has been a transparent government for the past 60 years.

And lastly you believe the hypothetical life that nut cases such as myself believe in can only be identical to how life started on Earth. Therefore if we discover ET, their planet would have to be 100% a mirror image of Earth, and we would presume this theory before discovery.

Discovering human life on identical Earth-like planets, is so rare, that we must be the only intelligent creatures in the Universe, and every planet in the Universe is bare of life.

reply to post by game over man


My apologies, I respect everyone's opinions and belief's and you seem to be projecting a lot into this conversation that is far from the truth.

I digress as I'm not interested in trading thinly veiled barbs and adhoms.

Fair enough?

Originally posted by DrunkenparrotIts ironic that so many are familiar with the Drake equation but so few with the equally compelling Fermi Paradox...

The Fermi paradox is quite ridiculous. It is equivalent to saying that we don't exist just because we haven't ventured into the Andromeda Galaxy. The Drake equation is just as fallacious and faulty, however, the drake equation simply implies that life elsewhere is highly probable while the Fermi paradox implies intelligent life does not exist elsewhere based on a logical fallacy.

reply to post by MathematicalPhysicist


Simple question.

If the Fermi Paradox is ridiculous and the Universe is teaming with life then...where are they?

Originally posted by Drunkenparrot

Simple question.

If the Fermi Paradox is ridiculous and the Universe is teaming with life then...where are they?

Don't know how you came to the conclusion of the other extreme. The universe may not be "teeming with life", we may not have the technology to detect them (they may be that advanced) or the technology to thoroughly observe exoplanets yet (they may be that primitive), etc. Even if our galaxy does not contain any other life, we will never reach the technology that can allow us to fully observe other galaxies and conclude they do not have any intelligent life as well.

The Fermi paradox asserts that a civilization not capable of interstellar travel does not exist, which is an absurdity. We know that interstellar travel is impractical to any advanced civilization seeing as FTL travel is impossible.

ok!

we are the lucky ones! whooo hoooo!

all your galaxies are ours!

lol.

as to the "astrobiologists" what exactly do they do if we haven't found any other life?

is that like an "athetheologist"? (made that up)

whatever set up the universe as it is now, knew what they were doing.

our earth is a microcosm of the macrocosm. that's why everything is so far apart.

not every tom dick and harry can fill the tank and take a road trip through the universe.

like someone said, if we are the only life, what a waste of space.

Originally posted by Drunkenparrot
reply to post by MathematicalPhysicist

 

Simple question.

If the Fermi Paradox is ridiculous and the Universe is teaming with life then...where are they?

it's "throbbing" with life as per marty balin.

where are they indeed, depends on what you're looking for, i guess.

you think in a hundred years we will be around alpha centauri?

or that every intelligent race survives intact from day one to travel the galaxy?

life all started at the same time and evolution went along just like earth? same tech, language, body style.

i have no idea what fermi was talking about with his paradox.

Originally posted by MathematicalPhysicist

Originally posted by Drunkenparrot

The Fermi paradox asserts that a civilization not capable of interstellar travel does not exist, which is an absurdity. We know that interstellar travel is impractical to any advanced civilization seeing as FTL travel is impossible.

It says no such thing.

From Wiki, complete with source citations so the validity is not in question...

The Fermi paradox (Fermi's paradox or Fermi-paradox) is the apparent contradiction between high estimates of the probability of the existence of extraterrestrial civilizations and the lack of evidence for, or contact with, such civilizations.

The age of the universe and its vast number of stars suggest that if the Earth is typical, extraterrestrial life should be common.[1] In an informal discussion in 1950, the physicist Enrico Fermi questioned why, if a multitude of advanced extraterrestrial civilizations exists in the Milky Way galaxy, evidence such as spacecraft or probes is not seen. A more detailed examination of the implications of the topic began with a paper by Michael H. Hart in 1975, and it is sometimes referred to as the Fermi–Hart paradox.[2] Other common names for the same phenomenon are Fermi's question ("Where are they?"), the Fermi Problem, the Great Silence,[3][4][5][6][7] and silentium universi[7][8] (Latin for "the silence of the universe"; the misspelling silencium universi is also common).

There have been attempts to resolve the Fermi paradox by locating evidence of extraterrestrial civilizations, along with proposals that such life could exist without human knowledge. Counterarguments suggest that intelligent extraterrestrial life does not exist or occurs so rarely or briefly that humans will never make contact with it.

Starting with Hart, a great deal of effort has gone into developing scientific theories about, and possible models of, extraterrestrial life, and the Fermi paradox has become a theoretical reference point in much of this work. The problem has spawned numerous scholarly works addressing it directly, while questions that relate to it have been addressed in fields as diverse as astronomy, biology, ecology, and philosophy. The emerging field of astrobiology has brought an interdisciplinary approach to the Fermi paradox and the question of extraterrestrial life.

1.^ Sagan, Carl Cosmos, Random House 2002 ISBN 0375508325
2.^ Wesson, Paul (1990). "Cosmology, extraterrestrial intelligence, and a resolution of the Fermi-Hart paradox". Royal Astronomical Society, Quarterly Journal 31: 161–170. Bibcode 1990QJRAS..31..161W.
3.^ a b c Brin, Glen David (1983). "The 'Great Silence': The Controversy Concerning Extraterrestial Intelligent Life". Quarterly Journal of Royal Astronomical Society 24: 283–309. Bibcode 1983QJRAS..24..283B.
4.^ James Annis (1999). "An Astrophysical Explanation for the Great Silence". arXiv:astro-ph/9901322 [astro-ph].
5.^ a b Hanson, Robin (1998). "The Great Filter – Are We Almost Past It?".
6.^ Bostrom, Nick (2007). In Great Silence there is Great Hope. Retrieved 2010-09-06.
7.^ a b Milan M. Ćirković (2009). "Fermi's Paradox – The Last Challenge for Copernicanism?". arXiv:0907.3432 [astro-ph].

Fermi paradox

reply to post by fooks


I interpret it as presented.

If life always finds a way (to shamelessly quote Jeff Goldblum) meaning is it as tenacious as most currently believe, even making allowances for things like relativity, it should be everywhere by now.

So where is it.

The purpose is to make you think, its not meant to be an answer in itself.

Read the wiki link if you haven't already, its just another facet to approach the E.T. question.

reply to post by Drunkenparrot


still, what are you looking for?

LGM, greys, the thing, alien, predator, michael rennie or keanu reeves?

you think we can see a cockroach at 1000ly?

or even a primitive civilization living in caves?

can we see another planet in another solar system like we can our own earth?

nope.

FP is bs.

and ya, we can figure out everything in 60 yrs looking at 15 billion light years.

is that every direction or just one?



fermi needs a reset.

Originally posted by DrunkenparrotThe age of the universe and its vast number of stars suggest that if the Earth is typical, extraterrestrial life should be common.[1] In an informal discussion in 1950, the physicist Enrico Fermi questioned why, if a multitude of advanced extraterrestrial civilizations exists in the Milky Way galaxy, evidence such as spacecraft or probes is not seen. A more detailed examination of the implications of the topic began with a paper by Michael H. Hart in 1975, and it is sometimes referred to as the Fermi–Hart paradox.[2] Other common names for the same phenomenon are Fermi's question ("Where are they?"), the Fermi Problem, the Great Silence,[3][4][5][6][7] and silentium universi[7][8] (Latin for "the silence of the universe"; the misspelling silencium universi is also common).

So, if a civilization does not have probes flying around or ones that cannot be detected by us, they don't exist? We can't even thoroughly observe exoplanets due to our primitive technology and we will never reach the level of technology needed to observe a different galaxy.

I don't think the galaxy is teaming with life, however, the probability of life existing or having existed elsewhere in the universe is quite significant. But, I don't believe contact with an alien civilization will ever be viable.