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The prolonged debt ceiling deliberations have increased the possibility of a rating change or outlook change, or both for the United States government's Aaa government bond rating. Nevertheless, it remains our expectation that the government will continue with timely debt service, and that our review for downgrade will more likely than not conclude with a confirmation of the Aaa rating, albeit with a shift to a negative outlook. However, if there were a default on a Treasury debt obligation, a downgrade would likely follow, even if the default were swiftly cured and investors suffered no permanent losses.