2010 Exercise Models New Madrid Casualties in Kentucky at 7,000+

2010 Exercise Models New Madrid Casualties in Kentucky at 7,000+

publicintelligence.net

KENTUCKY DIVISION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT

* 40 pages
* December 2010
* 5.3 MB

(visit the link for the full news article)

Dutch-based document posting site Public Intelligence has posted a PowerPoint presentation from the Kentucky Department of Emergency Management from 2010. The PPT outlines the damage resulting from a hypothetical exercise-based New Madrid fault quake, pegging total casualties in the Commonwealth at more than 7,000.

publicintelligence.net
(visit the link for the full news article)

Computer predictions are fun, but, like spreadsheets, they give a false sense of accuracy. Just because something is "in a model" does not mean it's true. If it were, then we would have 50 million refugees from Global Warming already. That was predicted by the UN to happen in 2010. Here's the story on that fiasco. Umm, oops! Didn't happen, so now the UN has revised it's year to 2020.

The same thing will happen with the 2012 crowd. When that doesn't happen we'll suddenly have a re-interpretation. So while I don't think it's wrong for these guys to try hard in their predictions, I think you need to take them with a grain of salt. Computer models do not represent reality.

Originally posted by schuyler
Computer predictions are fun, but, like spreadsheets, they give a false sense of accuracy. Just because something is "in a model" does not mean it's true.

OMG, great point. I'm really, really sorry I started this thread.

Mods - if possible can you please completely delete this thread? I feel just awful. Really terrible.

Thanks and my sincere apologies to the entire community. I hope, in time, you may all come to forgive me.

A head's up is good. I think it would be better if my brothers and sisters across the border in Kentucky were forewarned. Though I have a hard time believing 7,000 would die in an earthquake there.

Originally posted by bsbray11
A head's up is good. I think it would be better if my brothers and sisters across the border in Kentucky were forewarned. Though I have a hard time believing 7,000 would die in an earthquake there.

The use-case in this model was 7,000 casualties, which included 6,700 injured and 300 dead.

reply to post by zuul000


I don't think the thread should be deleted by any means, while this poster has a point that computer models aren't in stone. That does not negate the fact that others may like to be privy to such information. I would take this for face value only and please do not let replies such as these detour you from ever posting information.

Originally posted by UberL33t
reply to post by zuul000

 

I don't think the thread should be deleted by any means, while this poster has a point that computer models aren't in stone. That does not negate the fact that others may like to be privy to such information. I would take this for face value only and please do not let replies such as these detour you from ever posting information.

No, I'm just horrified! It's unthinkable I had the audacity to post any kind of information on this site ... even if I did it without editorial comment. It's just awful. Clearly the status quo on ATS is to only post information after an event has happened, once NPR, FOX, CNN have reported on said event at least 3 times each, 7 people can provide personal witness, a documentary film has been produced on the event, and at least 5 years have passed.

I'm so ashamed of myself I don't even know what do; I hope everyone here can please forgive what I did in posting a Kentucky government PowerPoint presentation. It is obviously unforgivable.

Originally posted by zuul000
The use-case in this model was 7,000 casualties, which included 6,700 injured and 300 dead.

Ah, well that's more realistic I guess, but it would have to devastate one of Kentucky's few urban areas. Most of Kentucky is sparsely-populated woods and mountains, and is occupied by pretty hardy people.

The New Madrid is along the Mississippi River anyway, right? Kentucky doesn't have a whole lot of population out that way, unless it's Louisville on the Ohio River upstream.

reply to post by zuul000


You know...a part of me felt your reply was sarcastic, but I figured just to be safe I posted what I did. However, what I was trying to convey to you still stands. Don't let the opinion of one poster detour you from posting. Trust me, the probability that you'll get these responses with as wide a membership base that ATS has, it's inevitable, take them with a grain of salt my friend...that's all I am trying to say.

Originally posted by bsbray11

The New Madrid is along the Mississippi River anyway, right? Kentucky doesn't have a whole lot of population out that way, unless it's Louisville on the Ohio River upstream.

It covers the Jackson Purchase area of Kentucky which has a population of roughly 200,000.

considering the new madrid fault line covers 7 states with a population of over 15 millions people

those figures are overly optimistic.

even tho i live in indiana close to the kentucky line in my 40 years i have experienced 2 minor earthquakes.

uncommon but not unheard of.

one of the greatest new madrid earthquakes changed the course of the mississippi river.

so those numbers are bs.

Originally posted by neo96
considering the new madrid fault line covers 7 states with a population of over 15 millions people

those figures are overly optimistic.

"2010 Exercise Models New Madrid Casualties in Kentucky at 7,000+"

reply to post by zuul000


a state whose population exceeds 5 million people not counting illegal immigrants only 7000

yeah right

reply to post by neo96


Pick an earthquake that's happened in California, say San Francisco. Compare the total population of San Francisco, to the number of people who were actually injured or killed by any given earthquake. It's going to invariably be a relatively small number of people. It would have to be a very unusual event to cause complete and total devastation to an entire population.

reply to post by bsbray11


thats taking into account of alot of unknowns alot and the biggest one the magnitude of any given earthquake.

and california has earthquake building code standards kentucky does not.

Originally posted by neo96
reply to post by zuul000

 

a state whose population exceeds 5 million people not counting illegal immigrants only 7000

yeah right

I'm not addressing that. I'm addressing what you said - "considering the new madrid fault line covers 7 states with a population of over 15 millions people" - when the topic and document deals only with Kentucky, not "7 states."

Please choose to remain on topic. Thank you.

reply to post by zuul000


i have been on topic and borders mean nothing when talking about earthquakes and remember this

help is going to be dependent on roads do you think interstate travel and regular roads will not be effected?

how is the help going to get around? also how are people even going to get around to determined the devastation of any given area.

but whatever

Originally posted by neo96
thats taking into account of alot of unknowns alot and the biggest one the magnitude of any given earthquake.

Historical precedents are actually based on concrete events, that have already happened. That's usually what we use to judge how any given future event will happen. All earthquakes I have ever heard of in my entire life have only injured or killed a relatively small amount of the total population of any given area. I'm not sure why you find it necessary to believe earthquakes wipe out significant portions of populations, but I'm not seeing it. A more massive earthquake, or series of disasters could always occur, but I don't see why Kentucky would be any more prone to this than anywhere else on Earth.

and california has earthquake building code standards kentucky does not.

California also has lots of skyscrapers, while Kentucky... well... there's the red wooden barn, and Uncle Jed's shack over there.... Just kidding but you get the idea.

reply to post by bsbray11


take into account the newer technology for an infrastructure that didnt exist back then none of which was designed to withstand any large magnitude earthquake.

roads,bridges,gas lines,electrical power lines,phone lines etc.

another thing i forgot to mention is what is being transported on train tracks and on the interstate and highways.

at any given time there are things being transported that can have potentially have disastrous consequences.

add all that up and put in an area that has had little seismic events in decades.

its a recipe for disaster that can be alot worse than they are thinking.