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How far in the future are quantum computers?

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posted on Jan, 12 2011 @ 11:51 PM
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This may seem like an outlandish statement, but I know a few of you may be informed on the subject. I recently got into quantum mechanics. After reading how much technology we have already made based on quantum mechanics it only maks sense that eventually quantum compters will be possible. I have no scientific background by any means but I read as much as I can. Any of you informed enough to give an opinon/estimate?




posted on Jan, 12 2011 @ 11:57 PM
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reply to post by d00d557
 


You can figure it out yourself. Simply apply Moors Law to the current greatest processing capacity and you'll have an approximate date.



posted on Jan, 12 2011 @ 11:58 PM
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Originally posted by d00d557
This may seem like an outlandish statement, but I know a few of you may be informed on the subject. I recently got into quantum mechanics. After reading how much technology we have already made based on quantum mechanics it only maks sense that eventually quantum compters will be possible. I have no scientific background by any means but I read as much as I can. Any of you informed enough to give an opinon/estimate?


Well, I suppose the answer would be determined by what you mean by Quantum computer. Some would say we already have them (Link below). If you mean a quantum computer that's more powerful than our non-quantum variety, no, I don't believe we have those yet. At this stage in the game, we can only work with 2 Qubits (Quantum Bits) at a time. Once we hit 8 or 16, with the necessary 99.99% accuracy, things'll start getting cool.

Linky

P.S. Technically we have also created 7-, 9-, and 11-Qubit processors, but they were very unstable.
edit on 13-1-2011 by Epsilon5 because: Further Clarification



posted on Jan, 13 2011 @ 12:01 AM
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reply to post by Epsilon5
 


Yes I meant the quantum computers that are more powerful than our non quantum computers. I was not familiar with the term qubit but I just looked it up. So apparently we have already somewhat integrated quantum properties into our current computers? Sorry did not read had to edit this. So we have integrated entaglement and superposition. I am very niave in these subjects so you will have to forgive me. This is amazing. I had no idea we had achieved what your link included. This is very interesting. So in the next two decades we should have some incredible advancements you think? 8 qubits cannot be too far off.

edit on 13-1-2011 by d00d557 because: (no reason given)



posted on Jan, 13 2011 @ 12:03 AM
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I say 2 weeks, 3 weeks max



posted on Jan, 13 2011 @ 12:08 AM
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Originally posted by d00d557
reply to post by Epsilon5
 


Yes I meant the quantum computers that are more powerful than our non quantum computers. I was not familiar with the term qubit but I just looked it up. So apparently we have already somewhat integrated quantum properties into our current computers? I know we have in some forms, but in what respects? I can assume our computers do not quite have the superposition capability of 0 and 1 at once. I imagine that is what you are speaking of once we have achieved 8 qubits or more.


Actually, the computer in the picture is a Quantum-Only variety computer. No integration has taken place (or will, as far as I know, which may not be very far).

Basically a Quantum computer works as follows (Warning: the following is highly simplified). The computer is given the answer to a question, and the computer, because it can superimpose both 0 and 1 to every bit concurrently, calculates every possible question that can yield the answer given. 'Sort of a Backwards computer.

Again, that's highly simplified, but essentially how it works.

I read an amazing book on the subject, but I can't for the life of me remember the title or the author. If I find it, I'll dig up this thread and let you know. It's an excellent read.



posted on Jan, 13 2011 @ 12:11 AM
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Heres a link to my thread i started a while ago has a news article inside may be of interest to you
Quantum leap towards computer of the future,
edit on 13/1/11 by Freedom_is_Slavery because: (no reason given)



posted on Jan, 13 2011 @ 01:07 AM
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Originally posted by d00d557
This may seem like an outlandish statement, but I know a few of you may be informed on the subject. I recently got into quantum mechanics. After reading how much technology we have already made based on quantum mechanics it only maks sense that eventually quantum compters will be possible. I have no scientific background by any means but I read as much as I can. Any of you informed enough to give an opinon/estimate?
Yes I took a post-graduate course in quantum physics while studying microchip design because it was clear that miniaturization of the transistors will need to be designed around quantum effects seen at smaller and smaller transistor sizes.

The estimates for how far away quantum computers are varies wildly from 5 years to 200 years:

Quantum Computing 5 years away!

Useful Quantum Computers Are 200 Years Away

I'm pretty sure the truth lies somewhere between those two extremes. You also need to clarify the question.

Are you asking when will the US department of defense have a multi-million dollar quantum computer? Or when you'll be able to get one for less than $1000? I would say add perhaps 20 years or so to the first answer to get the second answer.

Then you have a light-based computer, said to be a "quantum computer" but the guys working in labs are always overly optimistic about how long it will take to commercialize a new technology like this into practical use:

Quantum computer to come in next five years'"They might have a laboratory demonstrator in 5 years, but the DOD won't be buying one in 5 years and you won't be buying one within 25 years. I'm still guessing they are 30 years out for a practical multimillion dollar machine for the DOD and 50 years out for those of us who want one for less than $1000 in todays inflation adjusted dollars.

Look at the first comment in that last link: "I'm pretty sure in 2000 they predicted these would be ready by 2007." Actually I think that's true, they WERE talking about quantum computers back in the year 2000 telling us they weren't very far away. So keep that in mind, and be skeptical about overly optimistic timelines.



posted on Jan, 14 2011 @ 04:41 PM
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reply to post by d00d557
 


Epsilon knows whats going on!

The reality is, the discovery that brings us real working quantum computers could happen tomorrow. It could also happen in 30 years.

I have written a few posts you will find very interesting.
Future is coming: Evolution of the universe and Moores Law
Reversible computing(Quantum computing) 10^10 more efficient This one delves into quantum computing pretty deeply, I ensure you will enjoy this one!

According to this video.
there is a 16-bit quantum computer?



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