2036 - the mother of all asteroids

This thread is essential to warn people about the biggest most dangerous asteroid to come near earth for a long, long time.

Many people are nievely fooled thinking there isnt a risk, because a few years earlier in 2029, it will pass earth gravity and will definatly not collide

in 2005, former NASA and Apollo astronaut, Russell Schweikart, urged the United States Congress to consider planning for the possibility of a hurdling piece of space mass - an asteroid, most likely - impacting with the Earth. Unfortunately, there was a reason for his request.

An asteroid named 2004 MN4 had been assigned the highest odds ever for a direct impact with our planet since we'd started documenting asteroids in near-Earth orbits. At first, observations guessed at a possible meeting date in the year 2029. Later it was determined that 2029 would probably go off without much problems from 2004 MN4.

However, in 2036 we weren't so sure.

The steroid 2004 MN4 is now commonly referred to as Apophis.

"It's not just Apophis we're looking at. Every country is at risk. We need a set of general principles to deal with this issue," Schweickart, a member of the Apollo 9 crew that orbited the Earth in the 1960's, told a conference in San Francisco.

The impact of this could be devastating.

For an example of the devastation that could be caused, we must look to the Earth's hypothesized history. It is widely believed that a huge 10 kilometer asteroid set down in what is now the Yucatan Penninsula of Mexico about 65 million years ago. This collision formed the Chicxulub Crater that can be seen below the pennisula; an ancient crater approximately 180 kilometers wide. Now that's the small stuff.

www.secretsofsurvival.com...




Many many sources on it, i bring you just a few

neo.jpl.nasa.gov...

www.guardian.co.uk...

www.foxnews.com...

en.wikipedia.org...

please note even though some of those links may be from 05/07.. even scientists confirm the chances of it hitting earth are thousands of times greater now on its second round in 2036

My intention for this thread isnt to scare people.. its to make people aware of this big threat, and to get through this together.



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reply to post by rabbigoldstein


The amount of damage it can cause ofcourse depends on its angle of impact and velocity. Having said that, bracing for a worst case scenario; at the rate technology is advancing i'm sure we will have something to divert its path or blow it out of the sky by 2036. Heck maybe to even slow it down.

The chance of Apophis passing through the keyhole, a 600-metre patch of space, is 1 in 5,500 based on current information.

Not holding my breath but thanks for the heads up Rabbi, always appreciated.

I heard an astrologer on george noory coast to coast am one night and he stayed that scientist/astrologers/NASA can tell/see 100 years in advance what asteroids are out there and what could potentially hit earth.. It is a known fact for atleast the next 100 years there is NOT an asteroid that is on a collision course with earth.. can we say chicken little with this now?

this is truly a huge threat.. even 1 in 1000 is a huge threat, seeing as if we are unlucky enough to be that small 1 in 1000.. this is it, the world is over

so yes i think people should be taking this more seriously

Would I not be right in saying that the 1908 impact wasn't actually an impact as it is said that it exploded in the sky, which then caused the devastation.

I may be wrong though, the 2036 thing is interesting though, watched a few things on it.

peace out.

Just looking at the meaning of the name says it all. I have done a bit of research on this asteroid and it makes me wonder what we are actually up against here. Here is the meaning and a scenario from JPL anyway.

- Also known as Apep, The Destroyer, Apophis is the Egyptian god of evil and destruction who dwelled in eternal darkness. As a result of its passage within 40,000km of the Earth on Friday the 13th 2029, this minor planet will move from the Aten to the Apollo class. It is possible Apophis could go through a 400m wide keyhole on this pass that would put Apophis on a collision course with Earth in 2036.

The 250m is only an estimation. It could be up to 600m long, wide, what ever.

reply to post by rabbigoldstein


Not sure it's really the "Mother of all asteroids"....

It's estimated at about 320 meters in diameter.

Anyway, this seems like a miscue from NASA and JPL.....based on this article, it's contradictory:

neo.jpl.nasa.gov...

However, our current risk analysis for 2004 MN4 indicates that no subsequent Earth encounters in the 21st century are of concern.

Seems, though....some uncertainty....because no way to predict its exact trajectory after its encounter in 2029.

So, late 2029/2030, they will get more accurate data.....

the problem is the average joe shmoe are misinformed; most of them have heard about a `asteroid in the next 20 years` but all they know is its not going to make any contact... a lot of them at that switch off and say `great its all i need to know`, but like i say, its coming back a few years later, on a very close course towards earth

im praying for all of you right now

reply to post by rabbigoldstein


What you don't seem to understand is that the odds of this asteroid going anywhere near the keyhole are astronomical. ANY deviation from it's current path would make it go way off course.

The asteroid will ONLY strike earth if it passes through the keyhole and even then if it comes into contact with anything between 2029 and 2036, it would drastically change the trajectory and miss earth completely.

Stop being a fear monger.

~Keeper

Originally posted by tothetenthpower
reply to post by rabbigoldstein

 

Stop being a fear monger.
~Keeper

how do you mean a fear monger

Originally posted by rabbigoldstein
this is truly a huge threat.. even 1 in 1000 is a huge threat, seeing as if we are unlucky enough to be that small 1 in 1000.. this is it, the world is over

so yes i think people should be taking this more seriously

Fear mongering (or scaremongering) is the use of fear to influence the opinions and actions of others towards some specific end. The feared object or subject is sometimes exaggerated, and the pattern of fear mongering is usually one of repetition, in order to continuously reinforce the intended effects of this tactic, sometimes in the form of a vicious circle.[citation needed]

Source

~Keeper

The truth does not seem quite so dramatic ...

It is very unlikely that the asteroid Apophis will impact Earth in the foreseeable future. It will pass close to us on April 13th 2029, and again in 2036. There is a small chance that on the first of the two visits, the effect of the Earth’s gravity will dangerously alter Apophis’s trajectory, resulting in impact in 2036. The odds of such an impact are currently estimated at 1 in 45, 000.

Will the Apophis Asteroid Hit Earth?
www.bellaonline.com...

I posted the following about a month ago. I referred to it as a meteor, but that was only my poor choice of word at the time. There's a viable solution to any long-range asteroid we find, and it was outlined recently. Without further delay then :

In Phil Plait's "Bad Universe" the other day, he described a football-sized meteor hurtling towards collision for earth in the year 2036. The episode was psychotic in the sense that he described a long process of blasting the meteor with a nuclear mass-driver that would knock it off course. It followed that the meteor would take up a rotation around the sun, leading to potential future problems. The solution was to launch a leading satellite in parallel orbit with the meteor, kept safe from collision with computer-guided systems and ion thrusters. This, in theory, would systematically alter the course of the heavenly body over time, and launch it to the depths of space again.

So why did we need the mass driver stage?

I was also curious about their imagery of blowing up Sydney, Australia with a meteor several times over, and showing Iran as a prominent dot on the map after discussing nukes at length, but that's just me.

the old articles in there from 05/07 do indeed all buy say its unlikely, however! now the chances are far greater

Through our ancient history with all the waring gods and all, the one thing we have evidence of may be the solution to many myths and fables. To be afraid of what is in the sky.

Earth has been constantly bombarded by meteors of many sizes, mostly smaller. These events have caused many of the tales of fire from the sky, etc we now read as sketchy history fables. It is true and our most urgent threat, IMHO. There are plenty of craters and evidence to prove this theory, as well as written History, even Biblical reports.

Yet we believe it has never happened or will never happen because some supreme being has set order in chaos?

Never..... not so. It hasn't stopped them from impacting before and it won't stop them from impacting in the future.

This is one warning that is true. I just think the date may be off a bit. We will see.

Originally posted by thecinic
I heard an astrologer on george noory coast to coast am one night and he stayed that scientist/astrologers/NASA can tell/see 100 years in advance what asteroids are out there and what could potentially hit earth.. It is a known fact for atleast the next 100 years there is NOT an asteroid that is on a collision course with earth.. can we say chicken little with this now?

edit on 7-12-2010 by thecinic because: (no reason given)

Considering the fact that we know of only less than 20% of astroids that are out there... and thats a generous number.

I will be 51 at that time, so I think I good to go there (the afterlife)..

reply to post by rabbigoldstein


That's fair, and I'm not trying to diminish the threat this poses to us either. We have lots of forewarning however, and that's at least two possible solutions to the problem that have been outlined. Between the mass driver and the accompanying ion-thruster rocket (especially the latter) there seems good reason to have faith in our technology, this time. That means 26 years of living worry-free for everyone, which means we can give our attention to more pressing problems. My greatest concern over the asteroid is that no matter how small the chance of collision is, the media will hype this into a near certainty to ensure that many needed billions get embezzled for the cause.

It's not you going around posting this in the astronomy forums is it?
Actually that guy is on about 2034.

Anyway

As of October 7, 2009, refinements to the precovery images of Apophis by the University of Hawaii's Institute for Astronomy, the 90-inch Bok Telescope, and the Arecibo Observatory have generated a refined path that reduces the odds of a April 13, 2036 impact to about 1 in 250,000.[

en.wikipedia.org...

reply to post by rabbigoldstein


[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/80a0a4d7a910.jpg[/atsimg]

Can you shoot a few arrows at it. Maybe it will go away.
Thanks.