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Unique Computer Model to Predict Hurricanes Unveiled

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posted on Jun, 2 2010 @ 11:43 AM

American scientists have unveiled a unique computer model that can predict this year's hurricane season

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Associate Scholar Scientist Tim LaRow and his colleagues at Florida State University's Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies (COAPS) say there will be an average of 17 named storms with 10 of those storms developing into hurricanes in the Atlantic this season, which begins June 1, and runs through Nov. 30.

The historical seasonal average is 11 tropical storms with six of them becoming hurricanes.

LaRow said: "It looks like it will be a very busy season, and it only takes one hurricane making landfall to have devastating effects.

"The predicted high number of tropical systems means there is an increased chance that the eastern United States or Gulf Coast will see a landfall this year."

The COAPS model, unveiled just last year, is one of only a handful of numerical models in the world being used to study seasonal hurricane activity, and it has already outperformed many other models.

The model uses the university's high-performance computer to synthesize massive amounts of information including atmospheric, ocean and land data.

A key component of the COAPS model is the use of predicted sea surface temperatures.

The 2009 forecast, the model's first, was on target: It predicted a below-average season, with a mean of eight named storms with four of them developing into hurricanes.

There were nine named storms with three that became hurricanes.

The model's 2009 forecast, plus its hindcasts of the previous 14 hurricane seasons - that's when the data that existed prior to each season is plugged into the model to reforecast the season and then compared to what actually occurred - really show the model's precision.

From 1995 to 2009, the model predicted a mean of 13.7 named storms of which a mean of 7.8 were hurricanes.

In reality, the average during this period was 13.8 named storms with a mean of 7.9 hurricanes.

How the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico will affect the development of tropical storms this year is a question that scientists are still trying to figure out, LaRow said.

The oil on the ocean surface can diminish the amount of surface evaporation, which would lead to local increased ocean temperatures near the surface, but LaRow said he's made no adjustments to the model to account for the oil that continues to gush from an underwater well.

He said: "The oil spill will probably have little influence on the hurricane season, but we don't know for sure since this spill is unprecedented.

"It's uncertain how exactly the atmospheric and oceanic conditions might change if the spill continues to grow."

COAPS researchers spent about five years developing and assessing the numerical model before putting it to the test with its first real-time forecast last year.

2010 COAPS Atlantic Hurricane Season Forecast

Scientists at COAPS have just released their second annual Atlantic hurricane season forecast. This year's forecast calls for a mean of: 17 named storms 10 hurricanes, and an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE; a measure of the strength and duration of storms) of 156. These numbers are above the 1995-2009 average of 13.8 named storms and 7.9 hurricanes, and are related to unusually warm tropical North Atlantic sea surface temperatures, the possible emergence of La NiƱa conditions and the ongoing positive phase of the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation.

Way to go FSU!! Still worrisome that no one knows what affect that the Oil Spill will have though. Through all my research as of late everything has primarily been speculation for the most part. I revert back to the "time will tell" response, but hopefully it won't be a factor and all the storms will go somewhere and fizzle away. However, the predictions don't look promising.

posted on Jun, 2 2010 @ 11:51 AM
Thanks for the head's up! I look forward to using this new model. Historically, the mm5FSU model short run (as well as the CMC) seem to me to have a propensity toward developing a myriad of TCs out of lows and tropical disturbances that aren't even invests.

Note: The mm5FSU model run I linked to above is from Nov. 2009, when they stopped this particular model. Curiously enough, it depicts two lows in the Caribbean where two at this moment actually are! spooky?


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