Psychohistory: Americas Secret Weapon

Psycho-history: Americas Secret Weapon

Mood Music
www.youtube.com...


I humbly beseech you, the members of ATS, to pause for a minute and consider these series of questions.

Let us put our thing caps on for a moment and consider the following.

Issac Asimov

What few fail to realize of this man was the he was a prolific writer.

You already knew that one... OK

Did you know he had a doctorate in mathematics?

You got that one too... OK

How about this, in one of his many books he outlined something very interesting. His process for creating. Forgive me if I miss state the process here.

Example-He did one on the goose that laid the golden egg. In essence he outlined what scientifically would have to be present for it to work. In my far reach of my memory it was a nuclear alchemy process. In effect the goose was radioactive. He crossed several disciplines to outline it but in a sense he created what would be possible.

That I am sure you all might not have that one. Keep it under your hat for this discussion. It applies...

___________________________________________________

Psychohistory

Psychohistory, a fictional science in Isaac Asimov's Foundation universe, combines history, sociology, and mathematical statistics to make (nearly) exact predictions of the collective actions of very large groups of people, such as the Galactic Empire.

What did he base this on?

Psychohistory depends on the idea that, while one cannot foresee the actions of a particular individual, the laws of statistics as applied to large groups of people could predict the general flow of future events. Asimov used the analogy of a gas: an observer has great difficulty in predicting the motion of a single molecule in a gas, but can predict the mass action of the gas to a high level of accuracy. Physicists know this as the Kinetic theory. Asimov applied this concept to the population of his fictional Galactic Empire, which numbered a quintillion. The character responsible for the science's creation, Hari Seldon, established two axioms: * that the population whose behaviour was modeled should be sufficiently large * that the population should remain in ignorance of the results of the application of psychohistorical analyses There is a third underlying axiom of Psychohistory, which is trivial and thus not stated by Seldon in his Plan: * that Human Beings are the only sentient intelligence in the Galaxy.

Now these are the ones he based it on
en.wikipedia.org...
en.wikipedia.org...
en.wikipedia.org...

________________________________________________________________

Now we all have the laymen outline, now let us proceed to the next step.

What else could Rationally contribute to the development of psychohistory?

First this is one group I have come across that are discussing this...

groups.yahoo.com...

Now a Few of my own additions...
www.amazon.com...

Bruce Bueno de Mesquita is a master of game theory, which is a fancy label for a simple idea: People compete, and they always do what they think is in their own best interest. Bueno de Mesquita uses game theory and its insights into human behavior to predict and even engineer political, financial, and personal events. His forecasts, which have been employed by everyone from the CIA to major business firms, have an amazing 90 percent accuracy rate, and in this dazzling and revelatory book he shares his startling methods and lets you play along in a range of high-stakes negotiations and conflicts.

en.wikipedia.org..." target="_blank" class="postlink" rel="nofollow">Bruce Bueno de Mesquita

Bruce Bueno de Mesquita is a political scientist, professor at New York University, and senior fellow at the Hoover Institution. A graduate of the University of Michigan, he specializes in international relations, foreign policy, and nation building. He is also one of the authors of the selectorate theory, and is also the director of New York University's Alexander Hamilton Center for Political Economy.

now science fields I think can be added

Game Theory

Game theory is a branch of applied mathematics that is used in the social sciences, most notably in economics, as well as in biology (most notably evolutionary biology and ecology), engineering, political science, international relations, computer science, and philosophy. Game theory attempts to mathematically capture behavior in strategic situations, in which an individual's success in making choices depends on the choices of others. While initially developed to analyze competitions in which one individual does better at another's expense (zero sum games), it has been expanded to treat a wide class of interactions, which are classified according to several criteria. Today, "game theory is a sort of umbrella or 'unified field' theory for the rational side of social science, where 'social' is interpreted broadly, to include human as well as non-human players (computers, animals, plants)" (Aumann 1987).

Chaos Theory

Chaos theory is a field of study in mathematics, physics, and philosophy studying the behavior of dynamical systems that are highly sensitive to initial conditions. This sensitivity is popularly referred to as the butterfly effect. Small differences in initial conditions (such as those due to rounding errors in numerical computation) yield widely diverging outcomes for chaotic systems, rendering long-term prediction impossible in general.[1] This happens even though these systems are deterministic, meaning that their future behaviour is fully determined by their initial conditions, with no random elements involved.[2] In other words, the deterministic nature of these systems does not make them predictable.[3] This behavior is known as deterministic chaos, or simply chaos.

To be continued in next post.....



[edit on 12-3-2010 by ripcontrol]

Dude, one of my favorite series EVER.

I am the MULE. I will change the flow of mankind, and so shall you, if you know the math.

Be an information soldier, in an ARMY of ONE, where no one follows, only LEADS.

This is the Continuing look into Americas secret weapon: Psychohistory

We last left you at the points I was getting into other fields that might could be added to a modeling process . Yes I used the presenting active verbs for a reason due to feedback processes....

Now,Not my thread but this must be included..

Scarcity the new theory of everything

Back to sciences

Six degrees of separation

Six degrees of separation (also referred to as the "Human Web") refers to the idea that, if a person is one step away from each person they know and two steps away from each person who is known by one of the people they know, then everyone is at most six steps away from any other person on Earth. It was popularized by a play written by John Guare.

E-m Theory

Energy Maneuverability theory is a model of aircraft performance. It was promulgated by Col. John Boyd, and is useful in describing an aircraft's performance as the total of kinetic and potential energies or aircraft specific energy. It relates the thrust, weight, drag, wing area, and other flight characteristics of an aircraft into a quantitative model. This allows combat capabilities of various aircraft or prospective design trade-offs to be predicted and compared.

OODA loop

The OODA loop (for observe, orient, decide, and act) is a concept originally applied to the combat operations process, often at the strategic level in both the military operations. It is now also often applied to understand commercial operations and learning processes.

I believe the individual sciences are this....

I am referring to the whole art
Psychology, Biology, Astronomy, Plus a whole mess of others...

Suffice it to say all the necessary disciples

Now at this point I have to mention something. Accept this please...

So far to date you may have noticed a trend in my post. I might as well come clean.

I am developing at least three weapons that when combined will be unbeatable.

The First component is the Psychic warfare...

The development of a working version of Psychohistory is the second.. I will combine the two together...

I am leaving a key component with this one out.. I believe I have found a short cut to develop the Prime Radiant in a sense.

You Issac Asimov's mind work a certain way, and I can see just about how it would work.

A small hint is that it would involve a few functions, that would change how the other functions preformed....

I have found the shortcut so to speak... And I will be one of the few in possession of it.

This last comment should be the launching point of where this should have begun.. Sorry sometimes I am tease...



Heres the process I went through...

When a writer goes through a creative process he actually in his mind to a degree will create the personalities and the technology to the best of his mind...

Now put your self in Asimovs shoes... (relax we are only walking around the room...:lol

Asimovs Shoes

"I received the fundamentals of my education in school, but that was not enough. My real education, the superstructure, the details, the true architecture, I got out of the public library. For an impoverished child whose family could not afford to buy books, the library was the open door to wonder and achievement, and I can never be sufficiently grateful that I had the wit to charge through that door and make the most of it." (from I. Asimov, 1994)

I can not put my finger on it. ITs what he called the gamblers or politicians ability to instinctively guess psychohistory. I can not shake the time table of his life. When in the back of my mind it percolated with the coinciding american history it colored in a missing section it seemed..

*****I have asked several cold war era individuals this....
Doesn't it seem weird that the Americans laxed of on security yet seemed to be a step ahead of the russians...

Mitrokhin Archive

Look at the various maneuvers by the political parties and politicians. They seemed overall to have ran over the american public.

Look at the last few American Presidential elections... They where Rigged...
yet no response, that amounted to anything.

Can you think of any additional situations where it would have been used...


It is my full belief that Isaac Asimov, did create the science. It is also my belief that it is in the possession of some forces in human history. The are using it to their advantage.

I came to this via a process of several long periods of thinking. It is a process that is commonly known as reverse engineering. In the end I believe I have found the shortcut to it...

Reverse Engineering

Reverse engineering (RE) is the process of discovering the technological principles of a device, object or system through analysis of its structure, function and operation. It often involves taking something (e.g., a mechanical device, electronic component, or software program) apart and analyzing its workings in detail to be used in maintenance, or to try to make a new device or program that does the same thing without utilizing any physical part of the original.

I am not bright enough per say to do all of the work but bright enough to know what type of work could be used to create it.

QUESTIONS anyone?????

[edit on 12-3-2010 by ripcontrol]

In a sense Asimov was mostly responsible for my enlightenment. I have read over 120 of his books including all the sci-fi stuff. For basically a year and a half in hs all I did was read his books. I consider him to be the closest thing to a modern day profit we've had.

Thank you mod....


I want to say thank you @ all because it is an idea that is born of paranoia. Unfortunately the shoe fits.

I to am a huge Asimov fan and have read many of his books. I actually increased the number I read after I had this revelation so to speak...

Language immersion

Language immersion is a method of teaching a second language (also called L2, or the target language) in which the target language is not only the medium of instruction but the object of instruction. Unlike a more traditional language course, where the target language is simply the subject material, language immersion uses the target language as a teaching tool, surrounding or "immersing" students in the second language. In-class activities, such as math, science, social studies, and history, and those outside of the class, such as meals or everyday tasks, are conducted in the target language.

Method Acting

Method acting is a phrase that loosely refers to a family of techniques by which actors try to create in themselves the thoughts and emotions of their characters in an effort to develop lifelike performances. It can be contrasted with more classical forms of acting, in which actors simulate thoughts and emotions through external means, such as vocal intonation or facial expression. Though not all Method actors use the same approach, the "method" in Method acting usually refers to the practice, advocated by Lee Strasberg, by which actors draw upon their own emotions and memories in their portrayals, aided by a set of exercises and practices including sense memory and affective memory.

Using a mixture I could only come up with one conclusion. Isaac Asimov did create the said science. What makes it worse is that I believe that I think I have a good Idea who aided him.

If any skeptic wants to call go ahead.

To disprove it..
1) one must account for over 90% of Asimovs time and his thoughts.
2) get a hold of all his books and reference notes as well as his running partner's notes

The US government would be stupid not to have developed said weapon. After all the ultimate ability is the ability to predict all your opponents moves.

It is a scary thought but this comment by my friend is what sent the ball out of the park...

If it does exist? We would not be a free country but a dictatorship.

_______________________________________________________

Their is an underlying addition. I also believe that he was wrong in one area.

Us as human can not predict the location of an atom. Has anyone ever thought to think if the atom could tell where its brother is at.

There are a few additional sciences and methodologies here that when combined with the above the answer is yes. Yes you can also predict the movement also of about 90% of the population individually.

The material has all but one source been discussed here on ATS. If I ever come across it I will not post in it. Nor will I mention it. But look and use your own intelligence you can find it by its lack of presence here.

_______________________________________________________

I have a small hope I am wrong but I get the felling I do when you instinctively try to wish away something bad.


So this leaves with more questions in our search for knowledge.

Where else could it have already actively been used and successfully not noticed?

Remember the answer does not have to be right merely part of the possible profile for the system for reverse engineering purposes.

The other question is what clues do we really have?

The personnel required?
The equipment required?
The areas it could be used?

I hate to be a nuge about this, but Asimov's doctorate was not in mathmatics. It was biochemistry. But he ahd an amazing IQ and an insatiable curiousity which led him to conjecture about a great many things, including psychometrics.
Even Asimov stated that he doubted that the predictions concerning mass movements of societial and shifts in scocietal trends would ever even be predicted with any semblence of accuracy.

reply to post by ripcontrol

I'm a big fan of Asimov's ideas and have particularly enjoyed his short stories in the past. His story about the suppression of a device that could see the past (The Dead Past) has informed my thoughts about conspiracies ever since.

I don't agree that the US has something equivalent to the mulivac idea. Some trends can be imagined and indicated by known factors...prediction. IMO Politics is like two divorcees fighting over who gets the dog...they smile and skip whilst holding out cookies in the hope the dumb ol' mutt comes over.

Anyway, this post is purely to acknowledge your excellent OPs. Whilst I don't agree with your conclusions, the steps that led to them remain reasonable. Your links and sources are impressive and mesh nicely. Well constructed concept. SnF

I tend to think that something like psychohistory could be developed. As for how accurate it would be, you'd need statisticians to tell you. Then again, as Asimov said himself, an unpredictable event (like the mule in the second book of the series) can throw everything off.

Here is a little known fact about Asimov. He was drafted by the US Navy and worked in some unknown job at the Philadelphia shipyards (where the alleged Philadelphia experiment happened). He spent his days there in an office with 2 other people: Robert Heinlein and L. Ron Hubbard... And people still wonder why the US Navy have come up with a working railgun, cold fusion, etc...

reply to post by ajmusicmedia
I was intrigued by the Hubbard association and had a look for more evidence. I can't find anything that links the three at Philadelphia. I did find a rather cool memoir by Fred Pohl where he remembers Asimov and Heinlein at the Naval Yard...

That was quite a happy time for both of us, but what then came along was World War II.

That affected more people than just the two of us. Campbell suddenly discovered that editing the best science-fiction magazine in the world was no longer enough to satisfy him. Through friends, he found out that the Navy was willing to set up a small research facility at the Philadelphia Navy Yard to take on problems that the established teams weren’t handling, and set himself to help the war effort by recruiting people to staff it. Robert A. Heinlein was an easy choice: former Annapolis man himself, invalided out as a j.g. and desperate to get back into uniform. L. Sprague de Camp because he, too, couldn’t pass the physical for actual combat. Isaac was a natural. And there was also a good-looking female lieutenant better known by the name she acquired a few years later, Ginny Heinlein.

I’m not sure the team ever made much progress in their researches, but they did give it the old Navy try. Especially Isaac, who was yearning to find some kind of high-tech career to follow, since he had learned he was never going to be a doctor. No medical school would accept him, because there was a sort of gentlemen’s agreement to limit the number of Jewish doctors threatening to convert the whole practice of medicine into a Jewish specialty. So quotas had been established, and they were all filled.

The Way the Future Blogs: Frederik Pohl

First and foremost I acknowledge my sources

If you want to learn to write a lot better threads I recommend this. Read all, his are ordered and well thought out...

Just click the link to ATS member

After a conversation or two with him, he pointed out politely and indirectly where a fallacy or two in my post where.

Imitation is the highest form of flattery



My favorite 1 of 2

My favorite 2 of 2


reply to post by endisnighe


Mine to. You want a beautiful rumor...

It was in competition with lord of the rings to be made... Foundation series almost ended up a movie

reply to post by ISHAMAGI


If you would reread some of the series and his biography can you get a look around what I saw in the numbers

Have you read these

www.amazon.com...=pd_sim_b_2
www.amazon.com...=pd_bxgy_b_img_b
www.amazon.com...=pd_bxgy_b_img_b
www.amazon.com...=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1268470379&sr=1-1

reply to post by kettlebellysmith


I could have sworn he eventually got it... In another answer I will be covering a little more on this

I heard that to, it was after I went on this goose chase luckily...For some reason that ties into to an area some dont believe I have to borrow and paraphrase fromID4

"Thats not entirely true"



I believe wholeheartedly that if he didn't all the perquisites are present for its creation.

reply to post by Kandinsky


Well thank you. I appreciate all in this manner. I love to ask questions. Now you got me curious as to what conclusion you drew...

This is why SKL got a thanks was because he pointed out as well, raw notes need to be better organized. I did what any good writer does. Took an idea, filed off the serial numbers, and wrote my own on it...

reply to post by ajmusicmedia


I believe with imagination everything can be planned for and at the least you can respond on the basis of where the point contact with other plans...

That make since, sometimes I have a hard time communicating.

read these post of mine
reply to post by ripcontrol


Now this is weird... I could have and would have sworn I did a full post in a thread on PE

Great either my mind is jacked or well its gone....

To sum it up
Heinlein recruited two young people to work with him in 1942. De Camp and Asimov (a young mathematician in one version????)

IT was philidelphia 1942

Heinlein

During World War II, he did aeronautical engineering for the U.S. Navy, also recruiting Isaac Asimov and L. Sprague de Camp to work at the Philadelphia Naval Shipyard in Pennsylvania.

De Camp

During World War II, de Camp worked at the Philadelphia Naval Yard with fellow authors Isaac Asimov and Robert A. Heinlein. He rose to the rank of Lieutenant Commander in the Naval Reserve.

Recheck the link to asimov. I am mad because its seems some information has also changed in wikipedia

The date they went to philidelphia was 1942!!! Ill mark it off for now to two incidents of bad memory



My opinion was based on the idea yes they jacked with Tesla's work. These three men where uniquley qualified. I want to piont out one other thing because it ties all three men had a sense of humor and where quite intelligent.

Montauk wiki
Philli Experiment

The Office of Naval Research and the Varo annotation In early 1957, Jessup was contacted by the Office of Naval Research (ONR) in Washington, D.C., and was asked to study the contents of a parcel that it had received.[6] Upon his arrival, Mr. Jessup was astonished to find that a paperback copy of his UFO book had been mailed to the ONR in a manila envelope marked "Happy Easter." Furthermore, the book had been extensively annotated by hand in its margins, and an ONR officer asked Jessup if he had any idea as to who had done so. The lengthy annotations were written with three different colors of ink, and they appeared to detail a correspondence among three individuals, only one of which is given a name: "Jemi". The ONR labelled the other two "Mr A." and "Mr B." The annotators refer to each other as "Gypsies," and discuss two different types of "people" living in outer space. Their text contained non-standard use of capitalization and punctuation, and detailed a lengthy discussion of the merits of various suppositions that Jessup makes throughout his book, with oblique references to the Philadelphia Experiment, in a way that suggested prior or superior knowledge (for example, "Mr B." reassures his fellow annotators, who have highlighted a certain theory of Jessup’s).

I smiled because I read somewhere on something by Heinlein about being able to change your handwritting



The legend of these three men tie in two at least two mainstream Conspiracy Theories...

I am tempted someday to organize a raiding party on there estates and museums to get all their note.. And I mean all...

I know or at least had a vision on where one hole in National securtiy might be... Real tempting int his case to see.... Might find out what these three knew

This is the part where it is truly Americas secret weapon. Now the government may have one, under the second amendment you have the write to have one as well.

@ the mods this is gonna dance real close to trolling.

1)I am attempting to tie it in with my thread

2)I never did ask if we where allowed to troll our own threads????
This why I posted my response here and instead of in the thread I am posting the reply to....

reply to post by endisnighe


In the interest of my own freedom I must per that great quote make sure they cant get my neighbor.

NLP modeling

Applications In contrast to mainstream psychotherapy, NLP does not concentrate on diagnosis, treatment and assessment of mental and behavioral disorders. Instead, it focuses on helping clients to overcome their own self-perceived, or subjective, problems. It seeks to do this while respecting their own capabilities and wisdom to choose additional goals for the intervention as they learn more about their problems, and to modify and specify those goals further as a result of extended interaction with a therapist. The two main therapeutic uses of NLP are use as an adjunct by therapists[25] practicing in other therapeutic disciplines, or as a specific therapy called Neurolinguistic Psychotherapy (NLPt)[26] which is recognized by the United Kingdom Council for Psychotherapy[27] with accreditation governed at first by the Association for Neuro Linguistic Programming[28] and more recently by its daughter organisation the Neuro Linguistic Psychotherapy and Counselling Association[29]. While the main goals of Neuro-linguistic programming are therapeutic, the patterns have also been adapted for use outside psychotherapy for interpersonal communications and persuasion including business communication, management training,[30] sales,[31] sports,[32] and interpersonal influence.[33]

Well gentlemen I am pulling out my soap box and mixing a lot of my threads and several others...

Its another I Call

Cue the mood music Semore
www.youtube.com...

Ok what we have covered is the fact the numbers do exist to make a series of locally accurate predictions. We may not nail the exact weather but we can get the climate. Then we work on forecast... A good chance of rain, ect...

Here is that opportunity that is at the back of your mind. What can I do for my country. I dream of freedom and its being taken day by day..

Well howdy neighbor... I here you need a few tools, I think I have some stored in the back of my minds garage. Lets take a look at what we have...

50 caents

www.amazon.com...=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1268475103&sr=1-1

Robert greene

www.amazon.com...=pd_sim_b_1
www.amazon.com...=pd_sim_b_2

John boyd

Colonel John (Richard) Boyd (January 23, 1927–March 9, 1997) was a United States Air Force fighter pilot and military strategist of the late 20th century, whose theories have been highly influential in the military and in business.

www.amazon.com...=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1268475714&sr=1-1
www.amazon.com...=nb_sb_noss?url=search-alias%3Dstripbooks&field-keywords=boyd&x=13&y=16

Direct tie in as well with whole thread

Richard Marcinko

Take your pick I have read them all

John C. Maxwell

www.amazon.com...=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1268476263&sr=1-1

Well neighbor From time to time I will loan you a little more from my shed.

You see you can get close to the numbers or at least get that leaders ability to guess by hard core trained experience.

The great tie in.
All the leaders seem to have common sets of numbers...

The First I will mention is this. They had a skill they used to the best of their ability.

The second... nope thats cheating youll find it. Its all the same series of numbers...

A hint you say...

Very well neighbor. Each one realized that they had to change themselves to survive and get ahead. Rise above the heard so to speak

All right neighbor I would love to give you one more. I am being more then generous.

Each leader had a few qualities on of which was.....

A character trait all the greats had in common was... The ability to read through others words. Via their actions they realized their opponents all lied. Pure and simple, all attempt to camouflage their what their true intentions where.

Another, ok. Look over each ones history, you see it. No? Read the material first chance you get.

Each leader also had a simpler point. Each was honest with themselves brutally. On the point they could go through the OODA loop quicker with less baggage.

Write those down you might need it later

You see great leaders surf the trends, issues and problems of their worlds. So can you. Your first is to develop your understanding of the numbers. Each set has a set amount of moves. Consider the games of tic tac toe vs checkers vs chess. The main thing is that each has different required set of moves but they are finite. look over the numbers.

You might remember tic tac toe and how easy it is now. could chess become that way with time.

You should be able to practice and each of you be able to build your own free world in your local paradigms. Try taking small bites. Franklin suggested take two weeks to master each point.

Semore cue the Exit stage left music...

www.youtube.com...

Remember, the rebels won. lol

reply to post by Kandinsky


I cant find some of the original stuff I have heard about that..

unveiledsecretsandmessagesoflight.blogspot.com...

www.fiu.edu...

There have been two subsequent sequels to this book, containing even more incredible allegations and tales. The sequels have suggested that the Project had something to do with the Magickal "Babalon" workings of Crowleyan disciples L. Ron Hubbard, Jack Parsons, and Marjorie Cameron, involving the manipulation of some secret bloodline... that the circuitry used in the technology came from alien sources... and that it all may be connected to the fact that curious ancient Indian "pyramids" are supposedly to be found in the vicinity of Montauk Point. Well, before you choke on all this high weirdness, let me return to the first book, which will assuredly do its best to blow your mind on its own.

Its late... I hate to cut a post short.

The general idea if I remember was an association with a later progect, not the actual experiment itself...

I did do a disservice earlier...

This goes with the PE materila and Asimov association with it....

Tesla

Nikola Tesla (10 July 1856 – 7 January 1943) was an inventor and a mechanical and electrical engineer. He was one of the most important contributors to the birth of commercial electricity, and is best known for his many revolutionary developments in the field of electromagnetism in the late 19th and early 20th centuries.

Tesla dome

A "Tesla Dome" or "Tesla Shield" is spherical or hemisperical barrier of intense electromagnetic energy which can be fairly small or very large, large enough to cover a small city. The sperical field of highly charged energy is such that any kind of object (missile, airplane, bomb) encountering it is instantly destroyed, electronics fried, or in the case of a bomb, either "dudded" or exploded harmlessly outside the sphere. In the case of a triple layer dome, Bearden says that not even radiation can get across the EM barrier, making it the perfect defense in a nuclear war.

What I had heard was that between WWI and WWII Tesla tried to sell to the Uk government equipment that would prevent the use of bombs against British cities.

I believe the US government was in effect not degaussing but attempting to put shield on a Navy ship... can use say Nuclear Bomb obselete...lol

IT ties in this way. It would make Asimov, versed in Teslas notes and machines. Some of the same principals that govern wireless and wireless transmission of power apply to the ability to predict human behavior.

Certain events would act like attractors for mass and individual behaviors. The best example is the allowing of the patriot act post 9-11. I make no claims there!

If he did work on the numbers for wireless energy, it is possible some of the same principals and mathematics apply.

I know the book, if I remember correctly, was written before WWII. I believe the creation may have been post WWII.

BTW way You do know that Tesla lab was raided the day of his death right. Notes were all seized....