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NTI: Issue Brief: Future Space Security
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[I] Issue Introduction
Growing U.S. and global dependence on space assets for a wide variety of scientific, economic, and military purposes has raised concerns about what might happen if such assets were to be threatened by hostile countries. Today, only the United States and Russia have tested space weapons of any sort, but a handful of other countries (including India and China) are believed to be conducting at least initial research into lasers and kinetic kill systems intended for space attack. With Russia’s old anti-satellite system believed to be no longer operational and with the tentative nature of other foreign programs, the United States sits in a leadership position in this debate. At the Conference on Disarmament (CD), however, there is a stalemate in talks due to China’s freezing of negotiations on all forms of arms control (including the Fissile Material Cut-Off Treaty) until the United States agrees to negotiations on a treaty to prevent the weaponization of space. Both sides have refused to budge, resulting in a stoppage of business at the CD for the past two years.
Thus far, the Bush administration has enunciated a largely military-driven response to space vulnerabilities, suggesting the inevitability of space-based weapons—both for missile defense and to protect U.S. satellites and other spacecraft. The administration has argued that treaties would only constrain law-abiding countries and that there would be no way to stop hostile states from violating these agreements. By contrast, many foreign governments and administration critics have made the case that diplomatic measures may be much more effective than military means in protecting space, particularly in the increasingly crowded realm of low-Earth orbit (60 to 300 miles above the Earth). They argue that it would be best to establish binding treaties before threats to space assets emerge. A variety of issues are involved, including complex questions regarding the nature of space debris that weapons tests will generate, as well as uncertainties regarding commercial and political implications.
Issue Brief
Space is a realm currently used for scientific, commercial, and military purposes. Satellites make weather reporting possible, allow people to call and transmit data overseas instantaneously, and facilitate the flights of precision-guided munitions (of the type used in the Gulf War and in Afghanistan) to their targets with great accuracy. What worries the Bush administration and many military planners is what might happen if these assets themselves were to be threatened in some future war or by a rogue state or terrorist attempting to cripple the U.S. economy. While such threats today merely exist in theory, it would not be beyond the capability of almost two dozen countries to develop and deploy crude anti-satellite weapons that could be launched into space to attack U.S. assets. For example, a country might launch a small satellite packed with pebbles or nails and direct it into a high-speed collision with a critical U.S. satellite or spacecraft. Orbital objects travel at speeds of approximately 18,000 mph, meaning that such collisions would certainly be fatal. Critics note that such weapons do not yet exist, that their development and testing would be transparent and therefore possibly preventable, and that the United States has other military means to prevent their use. But there are other issues as well.
