China's hawks demand cold war on the US

China's hawks demand cold war on the US

www.timesonline.co.uk

MORE than half of Chinese people questioned in a poll believe China and America are heading for a new “cold war”.

The finding came after battles over Taiwan, Tibet, trade, climate change, internet freedom and human rights which have poisoned relations in the three months since President Barack Obama made a fruitless visit to Beijing.

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According to this recent article, it appears the Chinese are seeing thaw in relations with the US as well. Will it lead to confrontation between the two powers? Or is it more saber rattling? However, I think the latest turn in the relationship would appear that a war footing may be in the works? In the competitive world we live, in sooner or later two super powers are going to lock horns. It could be a diplomatic disagreement, a ill advised military movement, trade dispute, or a slight insult, and one day the two will be pointing guns at each other ready to fire. Who will blink first?

The US doesn't want to lose its role in the role world as the lone super power, where as , China wants to become the lone super power. So, perhaps this showing signs of both sides growing weary of the other. One is desperately trying to maintain its position in the world, while the other is the midst of overtaking the other.

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www.timesonline.co.uk
(visit the link for the full news article)

[edit on 7-2-2010 by Jakes51]

I seriously doubt that a cold war would be in anyone's interest, particularly not in America's. A war they could win, a cold war they would definitely lose. Under Cold War conditions, China could continue to emerge from a developing power into a superpower, while the US would continue to lose grip on world domination and eventually its position as the world's supreme power.

China find itself in a position that America was in halfway the 20th century: economically stable and growing stronger through capitalism, while the Soviets stubbornly continued their centralized-economic system. America knew their economic power would eventually defeat the doomed-to-fail Communist equivalent.

That's the difference with the current situation. The US is in decline, it's economy is broken and the Dollar is weaker than ever before. Effectively, the US is all but in a position to confront China in another Cold War. It would have disastrous consequences for the global economy, but in particular the American economy itself.

China's economy would suffer damage, but its growing middle class would eventually catch up the loss of the American market.

I am pretty convinced that Washington is aware of the potential and catastrophic harm a Cold War with China would do, making another world war a scenario far from surreal. The attention would directly be taken away from the economic turbulence and America could come out stronger than before, while China's grab to world domination would fade for good.

Originally posted by Mdv2
I seriously doubt that a cold war would be in anyone's interest, particularly not in America's. A war they could win, a cold war they would definitely lose. Under Cold War conditions, China could continue to emerge from a developing power into a superpower, while the US would continue to lose grip on world domination and eventually its position as the world's supreme power.

You are right, and I think if the Chinese put America on the long-term plan like a Cold War, could America survive long enough? China is only scratching the surface of their economic prowess, while the US is on the downturn of theirs'. Could America muster the dormant ingenuity they have been known for to outlast another Cold War?

China find itself in a position that America was in halfway the 20th century: economically stable and growing stronger through capitalism, while the Soviets stubbornly continued their centralized-economic system. America knew their economic power would eventually defeat the doomed-to-fail Communist equivalent.

That's the difference with the current situation. The US is in decline, it's economy is broken and the Dollar is weaker than ever before. Effectively, the US is all but in a position to confront China in another Cold War. It would have disastrous consequences for the global economy, but in particular the American economy itself.

I agree with your analysis on how the US is planning on dealing with China. Again, I have my doubts like you, that American can sustain another long-war. However, I think these recent slights are a means to garner a knee-jerk reaction by the Chinese. Thus, leading to a head on confrontation between the two powers. Will the Chinese take the bait? They are students of Sun Tzu, so it will be interesting to see how the Chinese handle the US and their tactics of poking sticks at the giant.

China's economy would suffer damage, but its growing middle class would eventually catch up the loss of the American market.

I am pretty convinced that Washington is aware of the potential and catastrophic harm a Cold War with China would do, making another world war a scenario far from surreal. The attention would directly be taken away from the economic turbulence and America could come out stronger than before, while China's grab to world domination would fade for good.

Brilliant analysis and I agree with much of it. The US is in no shape to get into a long slug fest with China, because the US economy is shambles, manufacturing is in the toilet, and the dollar continues its downward plunge as the world's ideal currency. So, it is going to be one definitive battle between the two, or at least that is what I think Washington has up their sleeves at the moment.

One word............JERICHO!!!!!!!!!!! Wasn't China responsible for the scenario in that t.v. series? I don't know. I think something big is on the horizon. Maybe not all out nuclear war or WWIII but with us pissing China off going into Iran would really piss them off.

reply to post by Jakes51


Actually taking into account your last paragraph that's EXACTLY why the US would get into a war with China. It would ramp up manufacturing, absolve us from paying the debt we owe to chinca etc.

reply to post by Zosynspiracy


I remember that show, and I am unsure if it was the Chinese responsible for the nuclear attack. If I remember correctly, the characters really had know idea who was responsible and all they had was the usual geopolitical saber rattles until the attack. It was a good show, shame it got canceled. Now, with the current situation, it could go in any direction. There is a critical situation taking shape, and there is no doubt about it. War is in the air. Who will fire the first shot? That is the million dollar question.

reply to post by Jakes51


I don't know but I do know that the US government would NEVER forewarn their population nor would they even give two craps about us. I think the Chinese government would be much more honest than the US.

Originally posted by Zosynspiracy
reply to post by Jakes51

 

I don't know but I do know that the US government would NEVER forewarn their population nor would they even give two craps about us. I think the Chinese government would be much more honest than the US.

What government really gives a crap about the people when you really think about it. Everything is only a slogan and ideological fluff, and do whatever it takes to retain power. If an attack were to happen the "Continuity of Government," would thus be in affect, and the leaders will be all warm and cozy in their bunkers somewhere. The people would be on their own living in the world of Mad Maxx. Would the US government forewarn the people of an attack, I highly doubt it, because the population would be in frenzy. With that being said, I don't think the Chinese would do it either. A billion or so panicked people would scare me if I was a government official in that country.

I very much doubt it would be workable for China, Since American corporates have their fingers everywhere.. they would simply buy/sell through proxies..

Consider the current set of sanctions being discussed in China... at the same time the EU is considering lifting similar sanctions against China..

As one door closes to US corporates another will open unless China places those sanctions on the whole of the West, which they can not afford to do, and even then other doors will open, more proxies will be set up..

I have not heard much about the great ghost fleet for a while, but assume those thousands of ships are still sitting around... The current situation is about politics and bluster.. making the right noises that in reality does not change a thing.

reply to post by Mdv2


I think your analysis is exactly backwards.

A cold war is definitely in the interest of the U.S. and NOT in China's interests. A Cold War situation ALWAYS bolsters an economy. Do you seriously believe that the U.S. would continue to pay it's massive debt to China if we were in a Cold War with them? No, we wouldn't because it would be considered aiding the enemy and would become, magically, illegal.

Now, that said, the other countries around the world would definitely not like the idea because China is also invested heavily in their economies and if the U.S. were to destroy China's ability to loan them money then... you get the picture?

Originally posted by Zosynspiracy
reply to post by Jakes51

 

I don't know but I do know that the US government would NEVER forewarn their population nor would they even give two craps about us. I think the Chinese government would be much more honest than the US.

Yes, I see your point... the Chinese government is sooo forthcoming with information...

Originally posted by Iamonlyhuman

Now, that said, the other countries around the world would definitely not like the idea because China is also invested heavily in their economies and if the U.S. were to destroy China's ability to loan them money then... you get the picture?

A Cold War is not War.

It's 2 A-Holes standing chin to chin.

If America backed out on its debt to China, it would send panic through the

monetary markets, crashing the dollar.

China wins.

reply to post by Jakes51


Ha!

I knew it.

The world need a new conflict..roll up, roll up get your tickets for a grandstand seat to see the new cold war build up!

Get 'em while they're hot, they're lovely.

reply to post by Sean48


I know nothing of economics (bores me rigid), but i'd always wondered what the effect would be, if a country which was indebted to another in a big way, simply said - no, we're not paying you...what are you going to do about it?

OK, they won't get any more loans i shouldn't think, but apart from that, what else could the country do, if the two were matched militarily?

A war is unlikely, as it would cost more than the debt.

So what would happen? Why don't countries just tell them to go whistle for the money?

Originally posted by Sean48

Originally posted by Iamonlyhuman

Now, that said, the other countries around the world would definitely not like the idea because China is also invested heavily in their economies and if the U.S. were to destroy China's ability to loan them money then... you get the picture?

A Cold War is not War.

It's 2 A-Holes standing chin to chin.

If America backed out on its debt to China, it would send panic through the

monetary markets, crashing the dollar.

China wins.

If America backed out on it's debt to China, China would not have the ability to loan to other countries in the first place, crashing EVERYONE's currency. But, the difference would be the fact that economies recover during war time because war time means JOBS in both the private and public sectors. Jobs mean people buying things and people paying taxes.

China could crash the dollar right now, this moment, if they wanted to. Why do you think they haven't done it? I can assure you it is NOT because they are being good world citizens... it is because they know it would cause the U.S. to go to war with them and THAT war is NOT in their best interest.

Just a thought, Has China stopped the loans, could America's recent actions be attributed to China cutting off the money.
How would anyone know? its not like the US goverment would make it public, so like a sulky child its lashing out.

Originally posted by Iamonlyhuman I can assure you it is NOT because they are being good world citizens... it is because they know it would cause the U.S. to go to war with them and THAT war is NOT in their best interest.

The only country that sees War as a Stimulus package is the US.

The Chinese don't crash the dollar because they want to grow their economy.

How many jobs do you think would appear from war?

This isn't the 40's, no Rosie the Rivetor needed.

Originally posted by Iamonlyhuman
reply to post by Mdv2

 

I think your analysis is exactly backwards.

A cold war is definitely in the interest of the U.S. and NOT in China's interests. A Cold War situation ALWAYS bolsters an economy. Do you seriously believe that the U.S. would continue to pay it's massive debt to China if we were in a Cold War with them? No, we wouldn't because it would be considered aiding the enemy and would become, magically, illegal.

Now, that said, the other countries around the world would definitely not like the idea because China is also invested heavily in their economies and if the U.S. were to destroy China's ability to loan them money then... you get the picture?

Who do you think would replace China as the number one foreign lender? The few powers capable have their own economic problems or are unwilling to do so. China has already made the decision to keep the limit at around $800 billion and does not further increase this, whereas the US continues to spend more and more.

What do you think will happen to the global perception of America? It will strengthen the tendency that the US is incapable of ever paying off its debts, which will put downwards pressure on the US Dollar. Eventually, the credit rating of the US will be
downgraded with the result that borrowing becomes more expensive.

Once all the trust is gone, the US will effectively be bankrupt. Although China's investment is huge, it would in such a situation remain a huge loss, nothing more. For the US, on the other hand, it would be catastrophic and lead to great chaos on stock markets.

China is definitely unhappy with its loss on its US investment and finds itself in between a rock and a hard place, but the US certainly does either. If I would have to choose which of them is worse off, I'd undoubtedly choose the US.

Originally posted by Sean48

Originally posted by Iamonlyhuman I can assure you it is NOT because they are being good world citizens... it is because they know it would cause the U.S. to go to war with them and THAT war is NOT in their best interest.

The only country that sees War as a Stimulus package is the US.

The Chinese don't crash the dollar because they want to grow their economy.

How many jobs do you think would appear from war?

This isn't the 40's, no Rosie the Rivetor needed.

Where I work, at just one facility, in 1990 at the end of the Cold War, we had 25,000 people working there. Now it's around 8,000. That's just the number of people working at that one facility AND, does not include the suppliers (office supplies, spare parts, operating materials, etc..) that are necessary for operations. AND, this is NOT a Department of Defense facility. So you can extrapolate from there...

I know it sounds like I'm advocating war but I truly am NOT. I'm just trying to make a point.

Originally posted by Sean48
The only country that sees War as a Stimulus package is the US.

That is so sadly naive. Could be because the American PEOPLE are the only ones who will talk about it. Have you ever thought about it that way?

[edit on 7/2/2010 by Iamonlyhuman]