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Every year, Exxon Mobil publishes an “Energy Outlook.” It is a thoughtful view of what the company believes the future holds.
And while this year’s Outlook isn’t due to be published for a few more days, Exxon executive Andrew Swiger recently gave a sneak peak at a conference.
Exxon now sees wind/solar/biofuels growing at 9.6% a year from 2005 through 2030 versus 9.3% a year ago; oil is now 0.8% versus 0.9% and coal is 0.5% versus 0.6%. Now, these might seem like modest changes, but there are fortunes to be made and lost in these fractions. No change in Exxon’s view of future nuclear, gas, biomass or hydro/geothermal growth.
From Japan to the U.S. to Europe, energy consumption will be flat. Exxon expects zero growth in energy consumption in the world’s developed economies. Indeed, energy demand is expected to be slightly lower in 2030 than in 2005. “The main reason is efficiency,” says Mr. Swiger. It’s a very different story in China, India and other developing economies which are expected to boast a 2.1% annual growth in energy consumption.