Rogue trader sends oil to year-high on $10m gamble, page 1

business.timesonline.co.uk...

PVM Oil Futures, a London-based division of the world’s biggest broker of over-the-counter derivatives, has lost almost $10 million (£6 million) after falling foul of a rogue trader.

The unauthorised trades in the early hours of Tuesday morning are reported to have been brokered by Steve Perkins, a senior, long-standing trader in futures on the Brent oil contract. He is understood to have been suspended from his post.

A spokesman for PVM Oil refused to confirm the identity of the trader and said the company had launched an investigation and continued to operate normally.

The rogue trades are widely believed to have caused global crude oil prices to spike to their highest level in more than eight months – a leap that traders and analysts had struggled to explain. ........

First off what does it say about how our system works if one man, one trader can take our oil up to yearly highs at his free will? Also what does it mean by he wasnt given "permission" to do so? Do banks collude to send commodity prices to a certain level? I thought supply and demand did this. If not then what does it say about when oil hit $150 a barrel? Was that just the banks sticking it to the people? Will someone calm me down because this story really ticks me off....

reply to post by tjeffersonsghost

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Two main factors directly effecting oil:

Dollar strength.

Speculators.

I find it hilarious one man lost $10m and spiked oil across the World though.. ahh ... to have such power. If you're gunna quit, or want to be fired, that's the way to do it!

Personally, it's my belief that if you don't refine oil. If you don't make something with the oil. If you are not directly using the oil. Then you have no right to buy the oil. That would make it illegal for banks, funds, speculators, etc etc etc to raise or decrease the cost of oil, stabilizing prices and directly linking it to supply and demand.

After all. If you're buying mass quantities of oil and you don't use it in industry.. you're only doing such a thing to fluctuate prices and make a quick buck. If you ask me, the corporate taxes on citizens all over the World.

reply to post by GreenBicMan

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You don't need liquidity if you don't allow speculation in oil. Food and energy should be hands off for futures traders, let them speculate on metals or coffee and other non-essential items. There's a pretty good argument that the real estate collapse and banking crisis was kicked off by the huge run up in oil and food prices last year, forcing low income Americans into default. Demand for oil has only dropped a few points since 2008 but the price dived around 80% at one point when all the traders ran for the exit.

It's not right that prices can be manipulated like that, every person on the planet is effected by food and energy costs.

reply to post by mythatsabigprobe

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My thoughts exactly. And I am in 100% agreement that rising food/oil costs certainly pushed American's over the edge.. the falling Dollar as a whole chipped away at us since the Dotcom bust, but the speculating was the final shot that did us in.

Originally posted by Rockpuck
reply to post by tjeffersonsghost

---

Two main factors directly effecting oil:

Dollar strength.

Speculators.

I find it hilarious one man lost $10m and spiked oil across the World though.. ahh ... to have such power. If you're gunna quit, or want to be fired, that's the way to do it!

Personally, it's my belief that if you don't refine oil. If you don't make something with the oil. If you are not directly using the oil. Then you have no right to buy the oil. That would make it illegal for banks, funds, speculators, etc etc etc to raise or decrease the cost of oil, stabilizing prices and directly linking it to supply and demand.

After all. If you're buying mass quantities of oil and you don't use it in industry.. you're only doing such a thing to fluctuate prices and make a quick buck. If you ask me, the corporate taxes on citizens all over the World.

exactly how PATHETIC and SPINELESS are REGULATORS........i guess it's the system but it gives you some insight......when you think critically and calmly about this and then reach the logical conclusion.....it is tuff not to scream Regulate or just shake your head and say where does this all end.

Dollar and Speculators ......Me and Rockpuck see eye to eye on this one.....and you know what the SICKER thing is ......dollar "strength" and speculator impulses are not just tied to OIL they are tied to various Food "futures" prices......soybean....corn......sugar.....etc.etc.etc...

the bank lobbyists and their cronies pay hand over fist to ensure that THEIR last line of ALPHA profits are not regulated..........i wonder last summer who pulled the plug on the Oil speculation game......people weren't exactly protesting thru the streets.....they just took it for the most part......what i wonder is who said enough is enough or was it they just exhaused all the excess capital that they had........did the forex traders get more dollar bullish and spook the commodity speculators....i wonder about this



[edit on 4-7-2009 by cpdaman]

reply to post by mythatsabigprobe

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You are incorrect.

You have no idea what happens in a "thin market"

Try trading the $25 Big Dow and see where you get filled because of no liquidity.


EDIT:

Also, I don't think it says, but this guy just got executed much higher than the ask and his order got swallowed up and the market moved back to equilibrium levels, so he didn't even really move the market, it came back right away..

Its the same thing as me entering an order for 100,000 ES Contracts at 3 points higher than the ask... it would move the market that instant, than most likely get swallowed up and the market would move back to an equilibrium level.

Some of you are worse than the same person you are criticizing all the time (Obama)

[edit on 4-7-2009 by GreenBicMan]

reply to post by tjeffersonsghost

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Hi TJG...long time. You can see the "rogue traders" handiwork on the chart (one-day spike) , but who/what was responsible for the consistent run-up since Jan ? How bout the run-up in WTI , was the "rogue" also dabbling in West Texas Intermediate contracts ?

I think I know the answer

Not sure if folks understand that they are calling for the abolishment of the commodities futures market. Specs provide price discovery , price equilibrium , liquidity , and assume risk on behalf of producers/consumers...without speculators there would be no futures market. What the CFTC needs to do is enforce existing regulations , especially with regard to contract limits. Last year regulators were asleep at the wheel while several large specs entered the market masquerading as hedgers.

Then there was the 2.4 billion blow-up of oil giant Semgroup , covering shorts on 50 million bbls. The "let's hang the spec's" crowd was a little chagrined to discover that it was actually hedger Semgroup betting against a rise in price that helped fuel the spike to $147 oil last year.

Specs are integral , indispensable...no new regs...no price caps...just do the job you're paid to do for a change , and enforce existing.

FWIW , the only commodity currently under a trading ban is the onion.

Let's see....

What onions teach us about oil prices


GL


[edit on 4-7-2009 by OBE1]

reply to post by cpdaman

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The futures market is better regulated than the equities market.

Although there is dark liquidity, there is plenty of volume in most future's contracts to keep them somewhat liquid. In thinly traded markets like I have listed above, it is terrible to trade.

If we were to do this with oil, we would see gas prices surge one day, drop another etc.. over and over and over..

As the previous poster said, we need the added liquidity for this reason among others.

IMO and Im sure many others, if we took away spec. it would make the prices much worse and no better at all.

reply to post by tjeffersonsghost

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The reason a $10million bet can have that sort of effect is that many firms allow anywhere from 100-300 times leverage in the futures markets.

So if this guy risked $10million, he could have been trading up to $30billion in futures contracts. Doubtful since that would have raised a huge flag. But a couple billion wouldn't raise too much of a stir. But, the way it works is if they use the leverage, they can only decline by as much put up before they are 100% wiped out. So if he did 100 to 1 leverage and was trading $1billion dollars, a 1% decline in oil futures would wipe 100% of the bet out.

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