Swine Flu spreading 5X the 'worst case' rate., page 1

As we all know the Swine Flu has been in and out of the news the past few weeks. Although it does not seem to be as deadly as was once feared, it seems to be spreading a LOT faster than what was predicted. On April 29th a report, using computer simulations, was released showing the worst case infection rate for 28 days.

www.livescience.com...

28 days will be up on May 27th. The predicted "Worst Case" infected number on that date was 1,700 in the US. That study was assuming that no efforts were being made to slow the spread, such as school closings and such.

As we know there have been school closings, and attempts to slow the spread. Today is now May 19, eight days before the 27th. The official numer as of today is 5,123 cases in the US. CNN source

So what that looks like to me, is this thing is spreading at a rate of at least 5X faster than the "worst case" predicitons. That is even with effrots to slow the infection rate. Come fall in the US, there will be a boatload of sick people. Thank goodness it is not as lethal as was originally thought.

reply to post by KnowMore

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If the "worst case" scenario is 1700 infections then 5 x 1700 would be 8500 not 5,123.

It's more like 3X.

reply to post by KnowMore

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Good stuff, KnowMore. S&F

...Most articles are publishing old numbers, and not showing the true speed and spread. Which is quite high.

From the WHO:

Influenza A(H1N1) - update 33
www.who.int...


19 May 2009 -- As of 06:00 GMT, 19 May 2009, 40 countries have officially reported 9830 cases of influenza A(H1N1) infection, including 79 deaths.

Total cases 9830 Deaths 79 Newly reported 1001 New Deaths 5

**

Influenza A(H1N1) - update 32
www.who.int...

18 May 2009 -- As of 06:00 GMT, 18 May 2009, 40 countries have officially reported 8829 cases of influenza A(H1N1) infection, including 74 deaths.

Total cases 8829 Deaths 74 Newly reported 349 New Deaths 2

***

Influenza A(H1N1) - update 31
www.who.int...

17 May 2009 -- As of 06:00 GMT, 17 May 2009, 39 countries have officially reported 8480 cases of influenza A(H1N1) infection.

Mexico has reported 2895 laboratory confirmed human cases of infection, including 66 deaths. The United States has reported 4714 laboratory confirmed human cases, including four deaths. Canada has reported 496 laboratory confirmed human cases, including one death. Costa Rica has reported nine laboratory confirmed human cases, including one death.

The following countries have reported laboratory confirmed cases with no deaths - Argentina (1), Australia (1), Austria (1), Belgium (4), Brazil (8), China (5), Colombia (11), Cuba (3), Denmark (1), Ecuador (1), El Salvador (4), Finland (2), France (14), Germany (14), Guatemala (3), India (1), Ireland (1), Israel (7), Italy (9), Japan (7), Malaysia (2), Netherlands (3), New Zealand (9), Norway (2), Panama (54), Peru (1), Poland (1), Portugal (1), Republic of Korea (3), Spain (103), Sweden (3), Switzerland (1), Thailand (2), Turkey (1), and the United Kingdom (82).

WHO is not recommending travel restrictions related to the outbreak of the influenza A(H1N1) virus.

Individuals who are ill should delay travel plans and returning travelers who fall ill should seek appropriate medical care. These recommendations are prudent measures which can limit the spread of many communicable diseases, including influenza.

Further information on the situation will be available on the WHO web site on a regular basis.

Obviously, if it weren't for the global financial crisis, the WHO would have called a Level 6 Pandemic already.

But nobody wants to deal with economic/political/social fallout.






[edit on 19-5-2009 by soficrow]

reply to post by venividivici

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The OP was talking about the 5X number of infections on May 27. It's not May 27th yet so obviously the 5X estimate was thought to be what the actual infections on May 27th will be, based on current spread data.

reply to post by KnowMore

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KnowMore-

Great thread- also remember on another post a physician at CDC believes over 100K people in the US alone have been exposed to H1N1- which means to me that in essence, nearly every American has been exposed- or nearly all- due to cogregations at events, malls, schools, public transport, etc. The same must be true in other countries, if it is indeed following the same pattern.Severe illness and death have not yet followed the rates of transmission or exposure yet, according to CDC or WHO, and yet thouseands have reported ILI- and doctors have been instructed NOT to test for H1N1- so we can't know for sure how many of the people who are ill- even mildly- are carrying the strain. The numbers (again) are not consistent with the rate of illness, school closures, etc. I can't make headsd or tails- but thank you for your analysis- it's a rational start- and indicitive of a very serious problem if we see virulence rates match the rate of spread.

reply to post by mahtoosacks

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It is spreading very quickly- but even the Black Death made it from China, all over the N Hemisphere and back to China in 4 years. In the 14th Century.

Add air travel and it's difficult to differentiate between planned attacks and natural spread. The explosions can be eerily similar....

From CIDRAP's newest post on the situation- notice the expectation of the SECOND wave of H1N1, relative to the second wave of the 1918 infection:

"""WHO Situational Assessment
On May 11, 2009, the WHO released a preliminary assessment of the novel H1N1 global situation as of that date. Key observations include the following (see References: WHO 2009: Assessing the severity of an influenza pandemic):

The H1N1 virus strain causing the current outbreaks is a new virus that has not been seen previously in either humans or animals. Although firm conclusions cannot be reached at present, scientists anticipate that preexisting immunity to the virus will be low or nonexistent, or largely confined to older population groups.
H1N1 appears to be more contagious than seasonal influenza. The secondary attack rate of seasonal influenza ranges from 5% to 15%. Current estimates of the secondary attack rate of H1N1 range from 22% to 33%.
With the exception of the outbreak in Mexico, which is still not fully understood, the H1N1 virus tends to cause very mild illness in otherwise healthy people. Outside Mexico, nearly all cases of illness, and all deaths, have been detected in people with underlying chronic conditions.
In the two largest and best documented outbreaks to date, in Mexico and the United States, a younger age-group has been affected than seen during seasonal epidemics of influenza. Although cases have been confirmed in all age-groups, the youth of patients with severe or lethal infections is a striking feature of early outbreaks.
In terms of population vulnerability, the tendency of the H1N1 virus to cause more severe and lethal infections in people with underlying conditions is of particular concern.
For several reasons, the prevalence of chronic diseases has risen dramatically since 1968, when the last pandemic of the previous century occurred. The geographic distribution of these diseases, once considered the close companions of affluent societies, has likewise shifted dramatically. Today, WHO estimates that 85% of the burden of chronic diseases is now concentrated in low- and middle-income countries. In these countries, chronic diseases show an earlier average age of onset than seen in more affluent parts of the world.
The full clinical spectrum of disease caused by H1N1 will not become apparent until the virus is more widespread.
Apart from the intrinsic mutability of influenza viruses, other factors could alter the severity of current disease patterns, if the virus continues to spread.
Scientists are concerned about possible changes that could take place as the virus spreads to the southern hemisphere and encounters currently circulating human viruses as the normal influenza season in that hemisphere begins.
The fact that the H5N1 avian influenza virus is firmly established in poultry in some parts of the world is another cause for concern. No one can predict how the H5N1 virus will behave under the pressure of a pandemic. At present, H5N1 is an animal virus that does not spread easily to humans and only very rarely transmits directly from one person to another. """""

www.cidrap.umn.edu...




Edited with my bolding the numbers of secondary recurrence.

[edit on 23-5-2009 by CultureD]

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