When, NOT If Israel Will Bomb Iran?, page 2

reply to post by donwhite

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In light of today Nuclear test by North Korea the US inconsistent foreign policy has been put under the spot light . If I had to choose a country's Nuclear program that was to be on the receiving end of a Massive Ordnance Penetrator it would easily be North Koreas and not Iran's . Iran Nuclear program should be regarded as a threat but that doesn't excuse the excessive focus the same thing that happened with Iraq .

reply to post by xpert11

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(1) In light of today nuclear test by North Korea the US inconsistent foreign policy has been put under the spot light. If I had to choose a country's nuclear program that was to be on the receiving end of a Massive Ordnance Penetrator it would easily be North Korea and not Iran's. (2) Iran nuclear program should be regarded as a threat but that doesn't excuse the excessive focus the same thing that happened with Iraq.

1) Until 2006, the US had 38,000 troops along the DMZ. Essentially the 38th parallel. (I have a picture of myself standing on the DMZ in 1953). I don’t know if any of our troops were pulled out for Iraq. Or Afghan. I have also heard that we may pull back our forces - whatever its size - to a less offending site. Say 50-100 miles south of the DMZ.

There are at least two types of nuclear powered electric generating plants; one in which the spent fuel can be easily converted into bomb making plutonium; the other where that is not the case. We should build NK one of the latter type plants. Then give NK a lot of aid like road building equipment, cell phone towers and so on.

2) Why are the US and Israel running a commonly orchestrated campaign against Iran? Is this a re-run of the 2003 Iraq WMDs runup to another war?

Why oh why would a 1 nuke country “threaten” a 200 nukes country? I thought atom bombs made you safe?

[edit on 5/25/2009 by donwhite]

reply to post by donwhite

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2) Why are the US and Israel running a commonly orchestrated campaign against Iran? Is this a re-run of the 2003 Iraq WMDs runup to another war?

For a start...

North Korea has been selling SCUD missiles to Iran (100 of the SCUD B missiles between 1987 and 1988, and 150 of the SCUD C in 1991), and has also been selling SCUD C missiles to Syria since 1993.

Iranian experts have been participating in North Korean missile test launches of guided missiles.

Iran uses guided rockets up to Shahib 3 developed by North Korea

www.b14643.de..." target="_blank" class="postlink" rel="nofollow">common rocket family

Iran obtained guidance technology for the ultra long range Taepo-dong 2 from Iran based on Iranian copies of the Soviet SS-4

reply to post by sy.gunson

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North Korea has been selling SCUD missiles to Iran (100 of the SCUD B missiles between 1987 and 1988, and 150 of the SCUD C in 1991),

1. How do SCUD C missiles compare in range and carrying capacity?

2. What did Iraq use in the 1991 Gulf War?

3. How hard would it be for Iran to manufacture their own SCUD C if they have 150 models to go on?

Iranian experts have been participating in North Korean missile test launches of guided missiles. Iran uses guided rockets up to Shahib 3 developed by North Korea. Iran obtained guidance technology for the ultra long range Taepo-dong 2 from Iran based on Iranian copies of the Soviet SS-4

1. The name SHAHIB reminds me of the Iranian shah and I wonder i9f this is an NK or Iranian development?

2. What are the capabilities of the SS-4 missile?

3. What is the SS-4's reputation for reliability?

reply to post by xpert11

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Are you referring to North Korea or Iran?

In the context you refer them Nuclear Weapons are a Cold War relic whose day of being a sign of supremacy are over. They remain to ensure that the Cold War deterrent remains in place regardless of the kind of leaders who emerge.

Today Nuclear Weapons are the weapon of choice for lunatic regimes and terrorist organizations.

I was referring to Iran. The “talking heads” who claim to know these things say NK has enough fissionable material for 10 bombs. Iran is still working on its first bomb. Or so we are told. Maybe like Iraq, our “tellers” are misleading us? For their own evil agenda? Should we punish people who lie about big things like war and peace? Or just give ‘em a free pass?

Aside: I went to the Russian movie, “War and Peace” back in the late 1960s. The uncut Russian version ran about 9-10 hours. Over here, we split it in half, running the first half in 3 hours for 2 weeks, and coming back 2 weeks later to see the second half, about 2 1/2 more hours. They 9, we 6. The movie was very impressively done and for many years, a lot of us thought it to be the best movie ever. Yes, it was in Russian with English subtitles. End.

The Ruskies never really posed a threat to the US. IMO. They must have been amazed to hear our CIA report to Congress every year and exaggerate their industrial capacity and military capability by 2X or 3X. The south of Russia is equal to Montreal or Toronto in latitude. The weather that high up just does not allow you to be STRONG when you are so far north. A simple fact of life. Which still applies to the new RF. I’d guess the 2 Dakotas, Iowa, Nebraska and Kansas together outproduce ALL of Siberia!

I’m not sure about weapons of choice for lunatic regimes or terrorist organizations. I have never heard OBL say he wanted nuclear weapons. I have heard American and Israeli leaders say that for years, but so far, it has not happened. Methinks they have lied to set up a strawman to keep the home folks pre-occupied.

OBL has it going his way. He spends a half million dollars on some enterprise and we spend $50 billion in countermeasures. Which are for the most part ineffective. On that ratio, OBL is winning.

It does not look good for the West. The West Is on the wrong side of history. Keeping the (2%-3%) R&Fs in power over the long haul will bankrupt that system. I just hope the successor system is not as bad as the current one. 28,000 children die every day from starvation or diseases exacerbated by malnutrition. We have known that for decades but don’t do anything about it. That’s got to be a loser ultimately.

Warning: The US has suddenly made “friends” with landlocked Paraguay. Never before in our history have we made overtures to Asuncion. We sent our Special Forces down there. They are engaged in joint maneuvers with the Paraguayan armed forces. Paraguay shares a border with Bolivia. en.wikipedia.org...

Know why? I offer the newly elected native president of Bolivia says he will not let foreigners take - say steal - the vast lithium deposits recently found in Bolivia. (It’s essential for electric batteries for automobiles). If he “messes” with us, he may go the way of Salvador Allende. Or Arbenz Guzman. Or Che Guevara. Or Manuel Noriega. Bolivia is treading in dangerous water when they deny Americans the RIGHT to exploit their natural resources on OUR terms. Unlike NK, they have something we DO want.

[edit on 5/26/2009 by donwhite]

reply to post by xpert11

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The problem lies in the CIA failings. As for intel gathering the CIA still lacks boots on the ground to confirm just what there beloved satellites and methods of bugging communication methods pick up.

Americans love technology! We were bamboozled when the CIA showed us photos of the ZIV limos parked in the Kremlin parking lot! We could read the license numbers. Based on motor vehicle records, we “knew” who was at those momentous meeting! 1968.

There are few Russian Americans. Few Arab Americans. Fewer still Afghan Americans. And almost no Tibetan Americans. Or Tamils. And etc. So where to you get SECRET agents? Well, it helps if you have some people from there whose parents were born there but you were born here. It is axiomatic that defectors are untrustworthy.

All the same for informants who usually do that for money, sex or drugs. Very unreliable as a source. So we are stuck here, unable to recruit “boots on the ground.” In some cases like the Afghans, the extended family - 300-500 strong - is entirely self sufficient. There is no possibility of penetration by outsiders. This must be the case with Osama bin Laden. I’d say it is an insoluble problem based on American mores.

Hopefully the Obama administration will start the long job of repairing the CIA. Assuming that the ten bombs do exist [in NK] wont be stored in the same place as they were manufactured, all of which points to the demand for better intel.

That’s right. The only possible help spying on NK is gong to come from SK. There are 1000s of families separated by the DMZ. Once upon a time there was some effort to restore border crossings but I don[‘t know how that stands today. It could be those 2 American journalists are part of that milieu. US citizens of Korean descent. They go on trial June 2 I think.

It takes years to build up a good HUMINT - human intelligence - operation anywhere, especially in countries OUTSIDE our historical sphere of interest. See Note 1.


Note 1. Aldrich Ames was assigned to the CIA's Europe Division Counterintelligence branch, where he was responsible for directing the analysis of Soviet intelligence operations. He had access to the identities of U.S. sources in the KGB and Soviet military. The information Ames provided led to the compromise of at least 100 U.S. intelligence operations and to the execution of at least 10 U.S. sources. He ultimately gave the Soviet government the names of every American agent working in their country.

Altogether, the Soviets paid Ames approximately $4.6 million for his services, allowing Ames to maintain a lifestyle well beyond the means of a normal CIA officer. With the money he earned from spying for the USSR he bought a new Jaguar, jewelry, designer clothing, and a house in the Northern Virginia suburbs valued at $500,000 (paid for in cash). Ames did not have an ideological affinity for the USSR; he was interested only in gaining more money.

Before he was caught, he was assigned the task of preparing the damage assessment of Jonathan Pollard's activities, and defenders of Pollard believe that he used the opportunity to attribute to Pollard the act of uncovering CIA agents and assets in the USSR. Ames and his wife liquidated about $2.5 million of the money the Soviets paid him for their personal use, with the Soviets withholding the remaining $2.1 million in a Russian bank account to be utilized once Ames retired from his spying. en.wikipedia.org...

He was not caught until a KGB defector gave him up. The CIA obviously had NO internal security bureau. The FBI did no better. It too let this kind of treachery go on for 2 decades until another KGB defector gave him up the FBI defector. If it was not for the KGB they would both still be at work?

Robert Philip Hanssen (born April 18, 1944) is a former American FBI agent who spied for Soviet and Russian intelligence services against the United States for more than 20 years.en.wikipedia.org...

[edit on 5/28/2009 by donwhite]

reply to post by xpert11

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It is difficult but not impossible to establish spy rings. Regimes like North Korea and Iran tend to have excellent counter intelligence as well. The value of the intel gathered by people is just too valuable to be ignored. Its just one of those things that has to be done the folly of not doing so is just to great. Cheers xpert11

It must be easy in English-speaking countries. And In western Europe. Especially compared to semi-closed societies. And in some instances, such as the outlying areas of Afghanistan where extended families are the rule and not the exception, you would be spotted instantly if you were not a member of the family. I would offer that the RF would be fairly easy because so many people would like to get out of there with a pot of gold. In China and India it would be easy simply because there are so many people.

Back in the good old days, say up until the 1970s, 1980s, you could do pretty well by taking and reading daily a dozen or so newspapers. The Times of India. The Jerusalem Post. Of course, the REAL Times (of London). The Times of Tokyo. The NY Times, Washington Post and maybe the Seattle Post-Intelligencer. Houston Post. Der Spiegel. L’Observatore Romano. Le Monde. Perhaps a Brazilian and a South African paper and a paper from Hong Kong.

There were 3 or 4 dozen other papers around the world - The Toronto Star - Manchester Guardian - that acheived fame for good reporting. It is true the CIA used newspapers as a front when they could. In the 1960s the CIA bought the Fodor travel guide that competed (barely) against the Michelin guides. One perceptive writer laughingly remarked that to be so bad Fodor had to be owned by the CIA. He was right.

But alas, the papers have died. That’s too bad.

PS. From the 1890s to the 1950s, The British Janes "All the World's Ships" was the authority on everything that floated.

[edit on 5/29/2009 by donwhite]

reply to post by Fremd

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War Game. Suppose Iran buys a nuclear bomb from Pakistan. That’s as likely as Iran making its own bomb. Or they might buy one from North Korea which we constantly accuse of wanting to sell bombs and rockets to every buyer on the planet.

Suppose Israel decides to bomb Iran. Would they send ONE bomb or 20? Suppose after the Israeli FIRST strike, Iran decides it is in the best interest of Iran to counter bomb Israel using its nuclear weapon on a medium range missile.

Assume the bomb Iran has is a Hiroshima Nagasaki type, 15,000 to 20,000 tons TNT equivalent. An air burst at 1,500 feet - 500 meters - which gives a zone of total destruction out about 3,000 feet - 1000 meters - from ground zero. A bomb aimed on the Dome of the Rock would destroy all of ancient Jerusalem call called East Jerusalem. So is it likely a devout Muslim nation like Iran would destroy the #3 Most Holy Site in Islam? Who can say.

I suggest it would be more likely to lay the bomb into downtown Tel Aviv. Israel’s major port city and second most populated. (Jerusalem being the largest population-wise but that mostly by slight of hand by annexing 100 square miles of adjoining areas never part of historic Jerusalem).

As densely populated as Tel Aviv is, I would not be surprised to learn of 200,000 killed outright and anothe3 200,000 to die in 30 days due to radiation poisoning plus another 100,000 within the year. That’s about a half million people.

So what does Israel do? Suppose Iran has TWO bombs. If they could buy one from Pakistan, why not buy two, or three or four? Russia and China might WARN Washington not to get involved in any nuclear exchange between Iran and Israel. Let it play itself out, they might say.

Would the bare possibility of destroying Iran’s ability to make its own bombs make Israel safe or safer? After a nuclear exchange which country would have the best chance of surviving 50 years out? Iran with 400,000 square miles, plenty of oil and 70 million people, or Israel with 10,000 square miles and 8 million people and no oil. Would it not be the better choice to accommodate the Arabs in a fair way?

Israel Thumbs Nose at US - Again

It surely must be obvious to any objective observer that Israel has no intention of making peace with the Arabs living in the West Bank, Gaza and East Jerusalem. Their plan which has gone forward since 1974, is labeled ETHNIC CLEANSING when done in Kosovo or Bosnia. When done in Israel, we just don;t put a label on it. Here follows exerts from today's story from My.Yahoo.com.

HAVAT GILAD, West Bank - Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Monday rejected President Barack Obama's demand for a freeze on West Bank Jewish settlement construction, but his government's move to dismantle some squatter camps set off a rampage by Jewish settlers against Palestinians.

Nearly 300,000 Israelis live in West Bank settlements among 2.4 million Palestinians. Another 180,000 live in Jewish neighborhoods of East Jerusalem. The Palestinians claim both areas - captured by Israel in the 1967 Mideast war - as parts of a future independent state. The U.S. considers the settlements an obstacle to peace but has done little on the issue, a policy that appears to be changing under Obama.

It was a violent reminder that Netanyahu is caught between his own hard-line supporters and Israel's vital relationship with Washington. So far, Netanyahu has appeared sympathetic to the settlers. Settlers have vowed to retaliate with attacks on Palestinians after removal of even the tiniest enclave - a tactic known as "price tag."

On Monday, Netanyahu briefed the Israeli parliament's Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee about his recent meeting with Obama. Netanyahu said Israel cannot "freeze life" in settlements, according to a participant who spoke on condition of anonymity because the meeting was closed. Netanyahu was quoted as saying that "there are reasonable requests and unreasonable requests."

Before dawn, near the Kedumim settlement, stone-throwing settlers ambushed a minivan carrying Palestinian laborers to Israel, the workers said. Six of the 15 Palestinians on board were hurt, including Yahye Sadah, 44, who was hit in the head and said he needed six stitches.

A few hours later, settlers torched a wooded hilltop near Nablus and set trees and Palestinian agricultural land on fire near the village of Hawara, residents said. Romel Sweiti, a local resident, said about 50 teenage settler girls gathered on a main road and blocked traffic as Israeli paramilitary police stood in the background. Police said no arrests were made.

Menachem Novick, 28, one of the protesters, said the goal was to press Netanyahu and his party to keep their campaign pledge to expand the settlements. "We want to give them a push to do what they were elected to do," he said. Israel has failed to keep a promise to the U.S., first made in 2003, to dismantle about two dozen outposts.

On another touchy diplomatic front, U.N. investigators on Monday began looking into possible war crimes during Israel's three-week offensive earlier this year against Gaza's Hamas rulers, even though they failed to secure a promise of cooperation from Israel.
news.yahoo.com...

Originally posted by seagull
reply to post by heliosprime

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What are you even talking about? Russia has no capability to invade Israel. Not to mention the little issue of no common border. Amphibious? Against the Sixth Fleet? Good luck with that...

Whether or not Iran has a weapons program, Israel views them as a threat. When Israel views someone as a threat, you've got a problem. The Israeli's take the "never again" very seriously.

This saber rattling has been going both ways...

The Obama administration is going to come to the same conclusion that all the previous administrations since the founding of Israel have come to. The Israeli's are going to do what they feel is in their best interests, not ours, not Europes, no one but Israel. All we can really hope to accomplish, is to mitigate the damage.

Very well put. Israel has been under attack since their inception and any saber rattling, understandably, gets the Israelis a tad nervous. Considering the last guy that told them they should leave, left a pretty foul taste in their mouth!

reply to post by Bearack

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Please show me the mass graves sites that were littered across the Serbian landscape? Your comparison is not only asinine, it's morally appalling.

How long will it be before the self-blinded PRO Israel-at-any-price QUIT playing the wearing thin Holocaust Card? Then is then. Now is now. Get over it.

Israel has made several offers, one restoring pre 1967 borders after Israel defeated the Arab states. Palestinian leaders refused. They only want Israel eliminated and a Palestine state placed. That ain't going to happen!

I agree Arab hyperbole is not helpful. It's somewhat akin to that by Iran’s Ahmadi-nejad who may or may not be declaring his nation’s intent instead of merely uttering cheap rhetoric to demagogue the next election. June 12. And to rile weary or wary Americans.

Regardless, my memory does NOT include any genuine offer by Israel’s government EVER to “give back” the Occupied Territories (West Bank), Gaza, East Jerusalem and the Golan Heights. The closest we ever came to reaching such an arrangement ended with the untimely assassination of Yitzhak Rabin in 1995. And he was no guarantor!

Repeat: How phony it is for Israel to feign concern over Iran, when it, Israel, has 200 atom bombs (or more), and Iran is still working on its FIRST atom bomb!


[edit on 6/3/2009 by donwhite]

reply to post by Bearack

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Very well put. Israel has been under attack since their inception and any saber rattling, understandably, gets the Israelis a tad nervous. Considering the last guy that told them they should leave, left a pretty foul taste in their mouth!

Still playing the Hitler card? I think Pres. Obama has thrown down the gauntlet to the current backward looking Israeli government headed by hard right wing PM Netanyahu and co-sponsored by the ultra right leader FM Lieberman of late from Russia.

I was terribly disappointed to hear Tzipi Livni - head of the Kadima - Israel’s center party - mimic Netanyahu on the possibility of an Arab settlement. The “Land for Peace” concept never had more than 30% of the Israeli electorate on its side. While that was the largest single group for a long time, it is my impression that today, 2009, the number has shrunk to about 15%. That bodes ill for Israel. Time is fast running out.

Americans are wearing down. We are about to “walk away” from the Land of Palestine we have come to love so much as the place where Jesus walked. Fewer and fewer Americans see any advantage to be found there. Certainly the place is no better off than places where Jesus did not walk. That bodes ill for our own “Born Agains” who see Jesus on a White Throne in the middle of Jerusalem. (Wow! What are they smoking?)

Secular historians have pretty much shot down any historical accuracy for the half dozen or so holy sites of Christendom in and around the place. The best that can be said for the sites as real places is a truism: the locations had to be someplace. The chosen places - chosen largely by the 80 year old Empress Helena in the 320s AD - are as good a choice as any that could have been made 300 years after the fact. Which is to say not very good at all.

The one hang-up I see is the PRE-CONDITION we impose on the Arabs - say Hamas - but not on Israel. That Hamas must give up its main talking point - recognizing the right of Israel to exist - BEFORE we will sit down with them. If we could ever get over it - that worthless pre-condition - we might be able to arrange a settlement. That’s our obstacle. We’ll see.

Obama is pragmatic if nothing else. And the US needs PEACE in the Middle East if we are to survive this economic crisis, rebuild our own infrastructure and end the phony War on Terror bequeathed to us by the Fathers of Torture. Bush, Cheney, Rumsfeld and Rice. OK, 3 Fathers and a Mother.

reply to post by whatukno

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Middle East peace will be a reality once that Israel gets the tar kicked out of it for a while. The lesson will be clear, don't be a bully when your in the middle of someone else's sand pit.

There have been serious efforts from many sources to end this dispute since 1967 and all to no avail. Neither side is without fault. I fear neither side is yet ready to end it all. Until both sides are exhausted, it will drag on. IMO.

Some points on Israel- Firstly they don’t take their Q's from CIA Intelligence, so if you think Iran is another Iraq “with nothing” you wrong.

Here is a link from the IAEA June report:

www.iaea.org...

The issue Israel is dealing with is that they need to prevent Iran getting Nuclear Capabilities. If you not sure what I mean, just think of a suicide Bombed with a Nuke, doing it for Allah. Scary.

Earlier in the post someone thought Israel do not have nuke’s …this is an extract from the link below.
Nuclear collaboration between Israel and South Africa seems to have developed around 1967 and continued through the 70s and 80s. During this period South Africa was Israel's primary supplier of uranium for Dimona. It is unknown what role Israel had, if any, in the September 22, 1979 nuclear explosion in the south Indian Ocean which is widely believed to have been a joint test by Israel and South Africa.
www.palestinefacts.org...
I have stated that before the end of our summer(End August). Israel will attack Iran. I’m still on the line for my Prediction.-Worst case scenarios by the end of the year.
June 10th will be the deciding date where Israel will make their decision of how to act. If the Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is re-Elected then I should be in good standing with my prediction for an Attack. If he does not get re-elected then things will be up in the air depending on who’s taking over power.

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