# of infected to date =331
# of deaths assuming .05% mortality rate = 2
# of deaths assuming 1% mortality rate = 3
# of deaths assuming 2% mortality rate = 7
# of deaths assuming 3% mortality rate = 10
# of deaths assuming 5% mortality rate = 17
Notice in the above that a 3% mortality rate places us in the neighborhood of the amount of deaths we have witnessed globally to date.
5/8/09
# of infected to date =4,681
# of deaths assuming .05% mortality rate = 23
# of deaths assuming 1% mortality rate = 47
# of deaths assuming 2% mortality rate = 94
# of deaths assuming 3% mortality rate = 140
# of deaths assuming 5% mortality rate = 342
5/15/09
# of infected to date = 66,186
# of deaths assuming .05% mortality rate = 331
# of deaths assuming 1% mortality rate = 662
# of deaths assuming 2% mortality rate = 1,324
# of deaths assuming 3% mortality rate = 1,986
# of deaths assuming 5% mortality rate = 4,832
5/22/09
# of infected to date = 935,918
# of deaths assuming .05% mortality rate = 4,680
# of deaths assuming 1% mortality rate = 9,359
# of deaths assuming 2% mortality rate = 18,718
# of deaths assuming 3% mortality rate = 28,078
# of deaths assuming 5% mortality rate = 46,796
At this stage, healthcare should be breaking down, even in wealthy countries. A 5% mortality after this point may not be unrealistic.
5/29/09
# of infected to date = 13,234,513
# of deaths assuming .05% mortality rate = 66,173
# of deaths assuming 1% mortality rate = 132,345
# of deaths assuming 2% mortality rate = 264,690
# of deaths assuming 3% mortality rate = 397,035
# of deaths assuming 5% mortality rate = 661,726
6/13/09
# of infected to date = 3,863,676,821
# of deaths assuming .05% mortality rate = 19,318,384
# of deaths assuming 1% mortality rate = 38,636,768
# of deaths assuming 2% mortality rate = 77,273,536
# of deaths assuming 3% mortality rate = 115,910,305
# of deaths assuming 5% mortality rate = 193,183,841
At this point, one half of the world’s population has been exposed and infected. If this virus yielded the same mortality rate as the common flu, we would likely expect over 19 million deaths worldwide. If the current mortality rate continues with the current growth rate, then by June 13 we could witness 115 million deaths just 6 days later. If healthcare collapse, panic, and social unrest occur, then 193 million is the catastrophic reality.
At this point the growth rate would like slow down as more of the population would be immune and therefore unable to be a viral load carrier, however, deaths would still occur after this point. Of course, by now the fragile global economy will have already collapsed.
The critical difference between the Swine flu and the common flu is in two critical characteristics, growth rate and mortality rate. The rest is just math based on evidence to date. If the confirmed cases do not change to improve the numbers, then examine the above again.
[edit on 3/5/2009 by Mexican against NAU]
