Originally posted by VelmaLu
There's a couple of things you have to realize. "Starvation" does not always equate with death (it will eventually), it means not getting enough calories. Currently, it is estimated that something like 700 million people worldwide are starving.

About 30% of US grain is diverted to making biofuels. We have no more stockpiles, that's why food banks are hurting. There are no more warehouses stuffed with cheese or silos full of wheat.

We export enormous amounts of grain to Japan, Europe and South America. Japan would never be able to grow it's own food, doubtful that Europe could as well given the climate.

There was a worldwide rice shortage in 2007 and 2008, people were rioting. The majority of the world's population subsists (and I mean subsists) on rice. So if grain from the US was not available, then it is likely that Japan would start relying on rice more. It has a trickle down effect, with demand increasing cost and even a few pennies increase would result in starvation of the poorest of the poor. When your diet consists of one bowl of rice a day and a few vegetables, it's difficult to cut back.

In developed countries, the same thing happens. Imagine a perfect storm of more people needing help, a reduction in social systems and an increase in food prices. While many can afford to cut back, the poorest of the poor cannot.

There is the societal code of conduct which we agree that crime is bad and should be punished, but when people resort to theft to feed themselves or their children, the issue becomes less clear. People who would never think of stealing a car would have no problem breaking into your home to get food. We're going to see an increase in crime.

What happens when this global drought means the US stops exporting say half it's usual shipments? What do governments do when millions are starving and there's no way to feed them?

I think we all know the answer, because it's exactly what we do to protect our fuel resources.

You have some amazing points. I'm upset this issue is simply put on the side burner. Our government should be taking proactive measures to divert this crisis.

I'm assuming this hyperinfation theory will soon be reality. Ive havent done the numbers on farming acerage VS biofuels but it wouldnt be good. Corn is a precious resource.

The few of us that have stocked up on grain and rice will be better off but the masses have no idea.

I agree crime will be rampant, those without will most lkely kill to feed their children.

They are finding new ways to limit people from growing their own food. I read yesterday that if an idividual raises a few chickens our homeowners insurance will get cancelled considering those to be farmers. The key is to say it's a hobby.

It appears that most in the US and EU may resort to only eating one bowl of rice a day and no vegetables.

FDIC said recently, that if every American ate 4 to 5 servings of fruits and vegetables a day there isnt enough NOW. I figured that would wake some people up to the severity of this issue.

It's quite alarming!

I'm not so sure the government isn't driving this issue.

Food is just one scarce resource, but the loss of it is devastating and there is something deeply disturbing about people not having enough to eat. In the US, it is doubtful we'll ever really die of starvation, given that the average farmer grows enough food for about 140+ people.

We would just stop exporting.

However, when you take this issue and put it in context of all the dwindling resources -- water, arable land, food and especially oil, you get a different picture of the problem.

Oil = Food.

The US currently consumes 25% of the world's oil production. Our strongest competitors are emerging nations that are industrializing their economies and also need more and more oil. . . India and China. Notice how these two nations are now more important politically. They also have much larger populations that require food, so either their oil goes toward industry or food production.

We talked about what happens when the cost of rice goes up a few pennies -- people starve, but what happens when oil goes up a few dollars a barrel? Well, if you're a rice eating peasant living in rural China, you don't hardly notice. But if you're a middle-class American, you feel it. And while we don't die of starvation if we can't drive our cars, a prolonged price increase would bring the US economy to it's knees.

I suspect the food "shortage" is nothing more than our part is the global economic cold war which is being waged right now. Without imports of oil, many Americans would die, simply because our lifestyles are so heavily dependent on energy and making the transition to an agrarian society would be next to impossible. Yes, we can grow plenty of food, but it has to be harvested and transported using oil.

And if we did stop exporting, what would other countries do? What do WE do to protect our oil? Do we have any expectation that other countries wouldn't want to protect their food supply?

This issue is just part of the bigger puzzle being played out on the global stage. We are reaching critical mass and something needs to give -- we need a massive die off. It's too late to curb the population because we're over carrying capacity and any corrective measures would only effect future generations.

The only solution to this problem is to get rid of millions of people through war, man-made disaster (melting polar ice caps anyone?), disease (pandemic) or starvation. I believe the US has opted for the latter and this is why it is attempting to control food production.

There may be a decrease of living standard, but a food crisis is very unlikely.

Last time I checked, the crop production is absolutely enough, roughly 1kg per person per day for everybody on earth. No sure meat and vegetable production though.

Definitely, many people won't have enough just as usual

Originally posted by VelmaLu
I'm not so sure the government isn't driving this issue.

Food is just one scarce resource, but the loss of it is devastating and there is something deeply disturbing about people not having enough to eat. In the US, it is doubtful we'll ever really die of starvation, given that the average farmer grows enough food for about 140+ people.

We would just stop exporting.

However, when you take this issue and put it in context of all the dwindling resources -- water, arable land, food and especially oil, you get a different picture of the problem.

Oil = Food.

The US currently consumes 25% of the world's oil production. Our strongest competitors are emerging nations that are industrializing their economies and also need more and more oil. . . India and China. Notice how these two nations are now more important politically. They also have much larger populations that require food, so either their oil goes toward industry or food production.

We talked about what happens when the cost of rice goes up a few pennies -- people starve, but what happens when oil goes up a few dollars a barrel? Well, if you're a rice eating peasant living in rural China, you don't hardly notice. But if you're a middle-class American, you feel it. And while we don't die of starvation if we can't drive our cars, a prolonged price increase would bring the US economy to it's knees.

I suspect the food "shortage" is nothing more than our part is the global economic cold war which is being waged right now. Without imports of oil, many Americans would die, simply because our lifestyles are so heavily dependent on energy and making the transition to an agrarian society would be next to impossible. Yes, we can grow plenty of food, but it has to be harvested and transported using oil.

And if we did stop exporting, what would other countries do? What do WE do to protect our oil? Do we have any expectation that other countries wouldn't want to protect their food supply?

This issue is just part of the bigger puzzle being played out on the global stage. We are reaching critical mass and something needs to give -- we need a massive die off. It's too late to curb the population because we're over carrying capacity and any corrective measures would only effect future generations.

The only solution to this problem is to get rid of millions of people through war, man-made disaster (melting polar ice caps anyone?), disease (pandemic) or starvation. I believe the US has opted for the latter and this is why it is attempting to control food production.

Yes an increase in fuel prices will definitely cause higher food prices, especially for perishable goods that need to be shipped in refrigerated trucks.

Ive already noticed the prices gouges. It affects everything else too. The amount of land available to farmers is now decreasing at an alarming rate.

Back in 2007 the UN was warning that the worldwide food reserves are at their lowest in 35 years. Supply and demand have become unbalanced.

We now have farmers that have quit making cereal and have chosen to grow biofuels. Did you notice a couple years ago that the cost of cereal jumped at least 25% maybe more, in one year.

Plus we have a growing demand from China and India. It’s all out of whack.

I’m surprised we aren’t hearing more about it! When you say “the latter”,,do you mean pandemic or starvation. I happen to think both.

What's up? You may have a point on the driving forces.

Originally posted by bluepanic
There may be a decrease of living standard, but a food crisis is very unlikely.

Last time I checked, the crop production is absolutely enough, roughly 1kg per person per day for everybody on earth. No sure meat and vegetable production though.

Definitely, many people won't have enough just as usual

I have to agree that there will be a decreased living standard with the global population and not just the poorest countries.

It's out there but for some reason it quit making news headlines.

After the elections I felt compelled to stock up on canned foods, juices, powdered milk, flour, sugar, salt, rice, beans and pastas just in case. Who knows what will happen in the future. And if the most recent newsworthy commentary is any indicator, a moderate lack of trust in anyone but myself for my future comfort is wise.

I tried my first garden in 2 4'x8' wooden planters last year. Since it was my first and I have no experts to guide me, the results were only fair. Reading about gardening and canning is one thing, actually making a success of it is quite another. Besides, the chemtrails seem contribute to less sunny days than years gone by. I think because of them, some of my vegetable plants suffered some type of moldy infection.

I'm trying another garden this year with the only difference being, I'm probably going to have to resort to chemicals to keep them alive.

I appreciate the OP posting this info and am looking forward to and appreciate all replies on this subject. S&F!

Originally posted by Hazelnut
After the elections I felt compelled to stock up on canned foods, juices, powdered milk, flour, sugar, salt, rice, beans and pastas just in case. Who knows what will happen in the future. And if the most recent newsworthy commentary is any indicator, a moderate lack of trust in anyone but myself for my future comfort is wise.

I tried my first garden in 2 4'x8' wooden planters last year. Since it was my first and I have no experts to guide me, the results were only fair. Reading about gardening and canning is one thing, actually making a success of it is quite another. Besides, the chemtrails seem contribute to less sunny days than years gone by. I think because of them, some of my vegetable plants suffered some type of moldy infection.

I'm trying another garden this year with the only difference being, I'm probably going to have to resort to chemicals to keep them alive.

I appreciate the OP posting this info and am looking forward to and appreciate all replies on this subject. S&F!

I find that very funny. Lots of people stocked up after the elections and were scared to death. I also stocked up then.

I also stocked up for Y2K, Daylight saving time bug and the day Lehman fell and the stock market dropped 777 points. This last time I had 2 full pallets delivered. I may have over reacted but better safe than sorry. It costs a lot of money when panic sets in but a good solid investment is how I see it.

You are wise to trust that only you can provide for yourself. I'm the same way. Having children that depend on me is more cause to prepare.

I have seen a couple friends go from living the high life to applying for food stamps. If the majority of the population thinks they can fall back on government assistance they are in for a rude awakening.

I'm not surprised chemtrails have had an effect on other things as well. I hope you have better luck with your garden this year.

I think the government has opted to allow starvation. The situation is that we need energy to keep the US going. It doesn't matter if it's a wasteful society, environmentally damaging, etc. If we do not have energy, we can't keep going.

You can't kill off everyone but the farmers because our economy is interdependent. The farmer needs equipment, fertilizers, transportation, credit and everything else that makes the US go. So if the US fails, the world starves.

I believe that what is happening is that we're diverting crops to biofuels to create a greater demand for food, and to increase food prices. The US no longer manufactures anything of significance, but it still grows food. It's all we have left.

By using food to fuel our economy, we create greater demand for our products through orchestrated scarcity. Of course, the result is that some people starve.

Regarding gardening, I would like to share the results of my research.

It is virtually impossible to grow all the food you need to live on anything less than 20 acres, and it will almost certainly be more expensive than what you can buy in the store.

However, you can grow some things eocnomically and trade them, or can them.

From what I have learned, fruit and nut trees are the most economical way to do this. They require less inputs, you buy them only once, and they produce large amounts for years that can been canned or frozen. I also include asparagus, figs and grapes in this group. If you have limited space, you can buy dwarf or super-dwarf trees and plant them in containers. They will produce on balconies or patios.

Beyond that, growing vine plants is not as good as fruit or nut trees, but might save you some money overall. You'll have a large amount of produce and much of it can be canned. Produce like peppers, squash, strawberries, melons, eggplant, zucchini, cucumbers can be grown in containers as well.

The lest economical are row plants that require a lot of space, such as carrots, onions, broccoli, wheat, corn, beets, turnips, etc. This is because you only get one per plant, and you have to replant each year and fertilize. They require a lot of care and work and it's almost always cheaper to buy in the store.

There are exception to this, such as if you have a lot of land with rich soil, plenty of water and free fertilizer.

Another way to save money on gardening is to start composting using worms. And yes, this can be done if you live in an apartment or condo as well.

Originally posted by VelmaLu
I think the government has opted to allow starvation. The situation is that we need energy to keep the US going. It doesn't matter if it's a wasteful society, environmentally damaging, etc. If we do not have energy, we can't keep going.

You can't kill off everyone but the farmers because our economy is interdependent. The farmer needs equipment, fertilizers, transportation, credit and everything else that makes the US go. So if the US fails, the world starves.

I believe that what is happening is that we're diverting crops to biofuels to create a greater demand for food, and to increase food prices. The US no longer manufactures anything of significance, but it still grows food. It's all we have left.

By using food to fuel our economy, we create greater demand for our products through orchestrated scarcity. Of course, the result is that some people starve.

Good point. If we also consider the chances of having drought conditions or a natural disaster wiping out our crops. We have another catastrophe and more starvation.

Thanks for bringing up gardening. Yes even people in apartments or Condo's can grow food in containers. Tomato plants are also easy to do. They don’t take up a lot of space.

[edit on 8-5-2009 by wonderworld]

Reply to post by cnichols

I also worry about the goose laying the golden egg. This is one reason China and Russia havent came after us yet. What happens when the golden eggs stop? Know what I mean?

I still find your name interesting since Ive had that genealogy mystery of this dead guy named C Nicholes. Very cool!

Back to the subject; your right we must only depend on ourselves but try to convince others of this and they think it's gloom and doom talk.

Thanks for the useful container gardening tips. That will help lots of people that may wish to try it.

The just in time thing is scary. Do you have a "not on time delivery"? I could see this possible if there was a mass panic and a rush on the grocery stores.

[edit on 8-5-2009 by wonderworld]

[edit on 8-5-2009 by wonderworld]

The whole concept behind Just In Time delivery is this .... (I'll use a car manufacturer as an example) ....

Car Manufacturer has a plant in St. Louis, MO. Most of their property houses the manufacturing facilitiy and places to store the completed cars. They have a Lot that holds the "parts" in trailers.

You (the truck driver) pick up a load of ... drive shafts ... they don't have much room for the storage of said drive shafts so they have to schedule deliveries so that the drive shafts arrive "just in time" to be used.

Say you have a lot that holds 100 trailers. When you deliver the load of drive shafts, of those 100 spaces there MIGHT be 10 empty spaces available to put your loaded trailer. You park your trailer of drive shafts (that they will use in less than a week) and you pick up an empty trailer to open up a space for the next load of whatever.

If this load is not delivered "Just In Time" the production lines just may have to shut down. Shutting down the production lines means people who don't get paid because they have to go home. If the load is more than a day late, those people are "off" until that load comes in and is made available.

And to be honest, yes, there are plenty of loads that aren't "Just In Time" and those loads usually go to warehouses that have space to store the items in the trailer. Wal-Mart is a good example of that. Have picked up plenty of loads that had days to deliver, we just delivered early because it doesn't make sense to sit on a load if it can be delivered early. If a truck drivers wheels aren't turning then said truck driver isn't making any money.

-----------

As far as container gardening, etc. Good rule of thumb .. plant taller vegies/plants in the back of the container and smaller lower growing plants in the front. When you plant "companionable" plants together it's more beneficial for the plants as a whole.

A good place to get all types of gardening/composting information is Mother Earth News. www.motherearthnews.com


------

edited to add:

I don't know if China and/or Russia will come after us at all. If things get bad here in the U.S.A. then things will be (imo) much worse in China (not sure about Russia). We (the USA) are the Golden Goose but what people have yet to realize is the eggs we've been laying are made of Lead and not Gold! LOL

[edit on 8-5-2009 by cnichols]

Sadly, I think too many people believe they can grow enough calories for several people on an acre or two. It is really impossible. You have to realize that you have to have excess to can, freeze or dry for the months you can't grow, or things won't grow.

I'm testing this right now. By my calculations, most plants take about four months to get to maturity and then the yield is iffy. And that's using the best soil, fertilizers and a drip system.

Just imagine how many plants you would need to feed four people two salads every day for four months -- and then, you wouldn't be getting enough calories. Add to that the need for additional calories for people doing farm work and you see that two acres just isn't going to cut it.

That's not to say people shouldn't garden, and shouldn't supplement their food bill. However, they should realize that it is easier to specialize in a few items and develop a barter system to trade with others. I mean, really, how many of us are going to grow our own wheat and then grind it for flour? Seems to me that the logical solution is a few people growing wheat, and another person operating a mill.

So when you accept that you really can't grow everything you need (surviving is different from "need"), you need to start looking at what makes the most sense. And that is fruit and nut trees, maybe vine plants.

Just as an FYI ... my post wasn't intended to mean that only gardening will be sufficient.

The OP was about a possible upcoming food shortage and my post was intended to indicate that we CAN move away from depending on stores and the government.

However, it should be noted that it IS possible to produce enough food on less than 2 acres to "sustain" a family of 4 with plenty left for drying and canning. One must just keep an open mind and realize that there ARE alternative methods of farming out there.

Originally posted by cnichols
The whole concept behind Just In Time delivery is this .... (I'll use a car manufacturer as an example) ....

Car Manufacturer has a plant in St. Louis, MO. Most of their property houses the manufacturing facilitiy and places to store the completed cars. They have a Lot that holds the "parts" in trailers.

You (the truck driver) pick up a load of ... drive shafts ... they don't have much room for the storage of said drive shafts so they have to schedule deliveries so that the drive shafts arrive "just in time" to be used.

Say you have a lot that holds 100 trailers. When you deliver the load of drive shafts, of those 100 spaces there MIGHT be 10 empty spaces available to put your loaded trailer. You park your trailer of drive shafts (that they will use in less than a week) and you pick up an empty trailer to open up a space for the next load of whatever.

If this load is not delivered "Just In Time" the production lines just may have to shut down. Shutting down the production lines means people who don't get paid because they have to go home. If the load is more than a day late, those people are "off" until that load comes in and is made available.

And to be honest, yes, there are plenty of loads that aren't "Just In Time" and those loads usually go to warehouses that have space to store the items in the trailer. Wal-Mart is a good example of that. Have picked up plenty of loads that had days to deliver, we just delivered early because it doesn't make sense to sit on a load if it can be delivered early. If a truck drivers wheels aren't turning then said truck driver isn't making any money.

-----------

As far as container gardening, etc. Good rule of thumb .. plant taller vegies/plants in the back of the container and smaller lower growing plants in the front. When you plant "companionable" plants together it's more beneficial for the plants as a whole.

A good place to get all types of gardening/composting information is Mother Earth News. www.motherearthnews.com


------

edited to add:

I don't know if China and/or Russia will come after us at all. If things get bad here in the U.S.A. then things will be (imo) much worse in China (not sure about Russia). We (the USA) are the Golden Goose but what people have yet to realize is the eggs we've been laying are made of Lead and not Gold! LOL

[edit on 8-5-2009 by cnichols]

The good old USA and it's lead eggs, that's a good one.

I may just add myself to your local growers map for farm fresh eggs. If the trucks stop I'll remove myself and use thewm to feed my family.

That was a good exmaple of the just in time example. I dont see the government giving guidance or even mentioning the food crisis.

I think they are hesitant to instill fear in the people so I'm hoping we take proactive steps if the trucks stop. Like you say if the trucks stops the truckers also dont get paid. It's a vicious circle isn’t it.

Originally posted by VelmaLu
Sadly, I think too many people believe they can grow enough calories for several people on an acre or two. It is really impossible. You have to realize that you have to have excess to can, freeze or dry for the months you can't grow, or things won't grow.

I'm testing this right now. By my calculations, most plants take about four months to get to maturity and then the yield is iffy. And that's using the best soil, fertilizers and a drip system.

Just imagine how many plants you would need to feed four people two salads every day for four months -- and then, you wouldn't be getting enough calories. Add to that the need for additional calories for people doing farm work and you see that two acres just isn't going to cut it.

That's not to say people shouldn't garden, and shouldn't supplement their food bill. However, they should realize that it is easier to specialize in a few items and develop a barter system to trade with others. I mean, really, how many of us are going to grow our own wheat and then grind it for flour? Seems to me that the logical solution is a few people growing wheat, and another person operating a mill.

So when you accept that you really can't grow everything you need (surviving is different from "need"), you need to start looking at what makes the most sense. And that is fruit and nut trees, maybe vine plants.

You are right VelmaLu, people cant grow enough on one or 2 acres to sustain themselves through out the year. That is why I stock up like the Mormons.

I think everyone on ATS knows about the survival threads and the urgency to prepare.

Some think it's a huge daunting task or it will cost to much but in reality all of us can accomplish this, even a little at a time. I buy 50 pound bags of rice for 22 bucks each. I usually buy 4 or 5 at a time.

One bag a month would work for most people. I'm thinking we have until 2010 before things get too bad.

Besides the basics of wheat, rice, oats, beans, sugar, etc. I think it's important to stock up lots of seasonings, in the event we are forced to hunt food or live off the land.

We also need some psychologically appealing things like candy or cake mixes. If things get bad stress is a bit more tolerable with comfort foods around.

I don’t like to think of the possibility of food rationing. We haven’t seen that since the Great Depression.

Originally posted by cnichols
However, it should be noted that it IS possible to produce enough food on less than 2 acres to "sustain" a family of 4 with plenty left for drying and canning. One must just keep an open mind and realize that there ARE alternative methods of farming out there.

No, not really, unless you're talking about raising chickens and eating a diet of mainly eggs.

You can, however, grow adequate calories doing fruit and nut trees, but again, that is going to be a very limited diet. You would have enough to can. Again, unless you are planning to barter some of the fruit for other foods you're going to be malnourished.

But gardening on that scale will not produce enough for a family of four, and not with enough left over, especially if you are not using modern chemicals and hybrid plants.

People believe they can do it, because they are growing a lot now, but supplementing their produce with milk, butter, cheese, meat, eggs, flour and sugar from the supermarket.

Seriously, do the math on the calories as I did. There is a reason why we have dairy and meats -- it's because they are calorie-dense foods. Lettuce and tomatoes are not.