Why There Won't Be a Quarantine

Despite the Panic and Widespread Hysteria, and all the Media Hype about the Swine Flu Virus, if one looks at things logically, there is no reason to expect the worst.

1.) The death rate vs. infection rate is not of Pandemic proportions to justify a Quarantine (it needs to be 1.5% to be classified as a Pandemic, and 2.5% to be an Epidemic). There is a higher death rate vs. infection rate for newer strains of treatment-resistant TB in the US than there is of Swine Flu. There are currently more people in the US suffering from Botulism than Swine Flu, and with a much higher mortality rate than Swine Flu. Same goes for Clostridium Difficile or even Septicemia. Spend a little time on the CDC website and you'll realize that normal Flu has a higher death rate vs. infection rate than Swine Flu has. This alone shows how blown out of proportion the scare really is.

2.) Any variant of the Flu virus, including Swine Flu, is only a problem for a small percentage of the population. Those at risk are the extremely young who have not yet developed an immune system (infants), those with immune deficiency disorders, and the elderly who either have reduced immune systems or have chronic illness that can be complicated by another contagion such as the Flu. These are the people that make up the vast majority of fatality statistics in any Flu related deaths, regardless of the strain. Healthy Children and Adults are normally able to overcome it, even without vaccination or treatment.

3.) Does anyone remember the Swine Flu Outbreak in 1976? After one confirmed death due to Swine Flu at Fort Dix, this prompted President Gerald Ford to issue an order that every person in the U.S. be vaccinated for the disease using Tamiflu. The vaccination program was plagued by delays and public relations problems, but about 24% of the population had been vaccinated by the time the program was canceled. The vaccination program using Tamiflu caused about 500 confirmed cases of Guillain-Barré syndrome, resulting in death from severe pulmonary complications for 25 people. These were believed, in all probability to be caused by an immunopathological reaction to the 1976 vaccine. The Death rate to the vaccination Tamiflu caused a higher death rate than the Swine Flu. I don't think the US Government is willing to undergo that same fiasco a second time round.

4.) Most of all, it comes down to simple Economics. First of all, do you realize how many Trillions of US Dollars it would take to Quarantine just Los Angeles for a day, let alone the entire nation? Let's not even consider a one to two week Quarantine. The Payroll alone involved with enforcing a single day Quarantine would be enough to financially cripple this nation at a most inopportune time. Not to mention the Trillions in Spending Dollars that would be disastrous to many small to medium sized businesses that would fold from even 2 days of no business due to a Quarantine. That alone would put the US Economy into a nose-dive from which we would not recover for at least a decade. They say, in every conspiracy, to follow the money. Well, the money in this case is pointing to no Quarantine. Plain and simple.

(The Economic Impact of Quarantine: SARS in Toronto As A Case Study paper by Gupta AG, Moyer CA, and Stern DT is a good read to quell fears of a Mass Population Quarantine, and that doesn't take into account other financial factors such as a faltering economy or economic crisis at the time of Quarantine.)

When I ask if there will be a Quarantine, my Magic 8 Ball is pointing to "Not Likely". Logic and Reason point me to the very same conclusion.

Like the Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy says, "Don't Panic!"

[edit on 29-4-2009 by fraterormus]

All good points.

I've wondered if your #4 the economic impact is one of the main reasons we haven't seen more restrictions placed already. The world economy is hurting right now. They may very well be giving the economic impact of any restrictions a higher than normal priority right now.

reply to post by fraterormus



YOU NEED TO DO A FACT CHECK!!!!!!!!

To point 1)- You can not compare infection and fatality rates in a chronic disease like TB to an infecction like the flu. There are about 140 cases of botulism per YEAR so maybe only 10 at any given time. Also botulism is NOT an infectious disease it is a toxemia. The case fataility rate for the typical flu is VERY low much less then 1% however with many people getting the disease in a given season that means thousands of deaths.

To point 2) NOPE!!!!! you are completely wrong initial reports from Mexico indicate the initial fatal cases are between 25 to 37 years of age. THis is indicitive of immune system differences and most likely over response. USUALLY flu is old and young but this case is different and the 1918 flu was also!

To Point 3) Tamiflu is a recent development, was not given in 1976 and IS NOT A VACCINATION it is a anti-viral medicine.

These are MAJOR POINTS and some simple READING/SEARCHING on Google could have prevented this!

You can't claim that tamaflu is or isn't going to kill anyone. Of course the government is going to claim something different about the tamaflu and actually no one really knows whether tamaflu might or might not be like it was in 1976. We pretty much have to wait.

You don't have toe quarantine everyone though just those people who have or may have been contaminated and those who come in contact with the contaminated.

reply to post by fraterormus


Although I am not particularly worried about the virus, I am certain, almost certain the moronic governmental response coupled with 'panicky' soccer parent types and just garden variety idiots will most certainly bring about Armageddon.

I am not joking or trolling. I am absolutely serious.